Syria in a Week (22 – 29 July 2019)

Syria in a Week (22 – 29 July 2019)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Tal al-Meleh

29 July 2019

Russia’s air force helped the Syrian army to repel two attacks carried out by militants in the Idlib governorate on Sunday, TASS news agency reported, citing a senior defense ministry official.

Militants carried out two attacks on Syrian government forces’ positions using tanks and armored vehicles on 28 July, the official was quoted as saying.

Syrian government forces and allied forces took control of a strategic village in Hama governorate in middle Syria after fierce battles with opposition militants.

A field commander fighting with government forces acknowledged the difficulty of battles that government forces fought in Tal al-Meleh and its strategic hill in the western countryside of Hama. “A number of government forces were killed and others injured in fierce battle with opposition militants, who also had fifty people killed or injured, in addition to the destruction of a number of vehicles and motorcycles,” the commander told a German news agency.

 

Airstrikes and More Airstrikes

28 July 2019

Eleven civilians were killed on Sunday in Syrian and Russian airstrikes in northwest Syria, which have been subject to almost daily airstrikes for three months, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

Since late April, Idlib governorate and surrounding areas in the governorates of Aleppo, Hama, and Lattakia have witnessed an escalation in almost daily Syrian and Russian bombardment.

On Sunday, airstrikes and artillery shelling targeted various areas in Idlib and Hama, which killed eleven civilians, according to the SOHR.

The SOHR said that five of the casualties died as a result of government airstrikes on residential areas in Ariha city in Idlib governorate, after a bloody day in this city. Three others died in other places in northwest Syria. Russian airstrikes on farming land north of the adjacent Hama governorate left three civilians dead, according to the SOHR.

Four soldiers were killed in a government attack on the Tal al-Maleh village north of Hama, in addition to nine jihadists and opposition militants.

Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra) controls Idlib governorate – which has a population of three million – other less influential factions are also present in the governorate.

Over the past three months, more than seven hundred and fifty civilians have been killed including more than one hundred and ninety children as a result of the Syrian-Russian bombardment, according to the SOHR.

 

A Picture is a Thousand Words

26 July 2019

A picture spread on social media showing two sisters stuck in the rubble of a building targeted by an airstrike in northwest Syria while trying to help their younger sister from falling from a high floor. One of the two elder sisters died afterwards, while the other two are fighting for their lives in the hospital.

The city of Ariha – in the southern countryside of Idlib and hometown of the three sisters Dalia (8 years), Riham (5 years), and Tuqa (7 months) – was targeted by government airstrikes on Wednesday, which hit the residential building where the three sisters live. This comes within the context of the escalation that has been going on for three months.

A photographer named Bashar al-Sheikh who works for a local news website took the photo of the girls as they were between the rubble of the destroyed but not completely collapsed building. The two elder sisters appear completely stuck under the bricks, as Riham appears holding her sister Tuqa from her torn shirt to prevent her from falling. A man stands near them screaming from terror and unable to approach them on top of the rubble to rescue them.

The AFP could not verify the identity of the man. Some activists said he is their father, whereas one of the volunteers in the White Helmets (civil defense in areas controlled by factions) said that he is one of the neighbors.

The family, which consists of six girls, was hospitalized after the airstrike. The mother and her daughter Riham died shortly after because of the wounds they sustained. On Friday, Rawan (three years) also died, according to a doctor in Idlib hospital.

Save the Children said in a statement on Thursday that the number of children killed in Idlib in the last four weeks exceeds the number of children killed in the same area in 2018.

 

Displacement and Indifference

26 July 2019

More than four hundred thousand people in northwest Syria have displaced in the last three months, as a result of military escalation by government forces and their Russian allies. The United Nations condemned on Friday the continuous attacks that have targeted civilians and service and medical facilities.

Idlib governorate and surrounding areas, where three million people live, have come under almost daily bombardment by Syrian and Russian jets since the end of April, which has not spared hospitals, schools, or markets and has been accompanied by battles mainly in the northern countryside of Hama.

The bombardment has killed more than seven hundred and forty civilians in the last three months, according to the SOHR, while humanitarian organizations say that the area is living a “nightmare” with the ongoing escalation.

 

Deep Differences

28 July 2019

The London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper said on Sunday that areas in northwest Syria have been witnessing mobilization of forces and factions allied to each of the United States and Turkey after the failure of the last round of negotiations between the two countries in regards to the “safe zone”.

The newspaper said that as soon as the negotiations between the US delegation and Turkish officials in Ankara ended in failure a few days ago, each side mobilized its forces and factions on frontlines. Ankara wants to pressure Washington, and the latter wants to “deter” the Turkish army.

The newspaper also mentioned that the last round of negotiations revealed the deep gap between Washington’s position and its Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces on one hand and Ankara on the other hand in regards to establishing a “safe zone” northeast of Syria, and to a lesser extent in regards to implementing the “road map” in Manbej north of Aleppo.

 

US Tourist

25 July 2019

A US tourist, Sam Goodwin (30 years), who was detained in Syria for two months, was released thanks to a meditation of Lebanon, according to what his family said on Friday. “Sam is healthy and with his family,” his parents Thomas and Ann Goodwin said in a statement. “We are forever indebted to Lebanese General Abbas Ibrahim and to all others who helped secure the release of our son,” who went missing in May near the Kurdish dominated city of Qamishli northwest of Syria.

Goodwin was detained by the Syrian government. He wrote on his blog that he intended to complete his trip around the world by the end of the year. His family said it would provide more information at a later time.

 

Assassination in Daraa

24 July 2019

A former military commander in the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Firas Abdul Majeed al-Masalmeh, was killed in the governorate of Daraa and his personal bodyguard Shadi al-Ghanem was seriously wounded by gunshots on their car near the town of al-Yadoodeh, west of Daraa city.

A source in the Southern Front, which is affiliated with the FSA, said, “al-Masalmeh was the leader of one of the battalions in the FSA. He reconciled with government forces one year ago,” and worked with the Fourth Brigade – headed by Maher al-Assad, the brother of the Syrian president.

“The reason behind the assassination is perhaps mutual killings between groups working with government forces,” according to the source. Almost one year ago, government forces took control of the eastern and western countryside of Daraa after reconciliation with opposition faction commanders with Russian sponsorship.

 

Iranians Killed

25 July 2019

Six Iranians of forces allied to the Syrian government were killed in Israeli strikes in southern Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

The head of the SOHR Rami Abdul Rahman told the AFP that the attack killed nine fighters allied to the government, three Syrians and six Iranians.

The SOHR said on Wednesday that “reported Israeli missiles” targeted areas south of Syria near the Golan Heights, including Tal al-Harah in Daraa Governorate and Nabi’ al-Sakhr and Tal al-Ahmar in Quneitera governorate.

Since the start of the conflict in Syria in 2011, Israel has launched hundreds of airstrikes against Iranian targets and others for the Lebanese Hezbollah, in addition to positions for the Syrian army.

 

Syria in a Week (1 October 2018)

Syria in a Week (1 October 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

Third Anniversary of “Russian Syria”

30 September 2018

On Sunday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said that more than eighteen thousand people, half of which are civilians, were killed in Russian airstrikes in Syria since Moscow started its military intervention three years ago.

Russia, a strong ally for President Bashar al-Assad’s government, started launching airstrikes in Syria on 30 September 2015, four years after the onset of the destructive conflict in the country.

Since then, eighteen thousand and ninety-six people have been killed, including seven thousand nine hundred and eighty-eight civilians or about half of the death total, according to the SOHR.

Five thousand two hundred and thirty-three ISIS militants have also been killed in these airstrikes, while the remaining number belongs to other Islamist and Jihadist factions, according to the SOHR.

Human rights groups and western governments have criticized the Russian airstrikes, saying that the bombardment has been indiscriminate and targeted civilian infrastructure, including hospitals.

The White Helmets, the Syrian civil defense in opposition areas, said in a report on Sunday that they have carried out dozens of rescue operations in bombarded building since 2015. They mentioned Russian airstrikes on nineteen schools, twelve open markets, and twenty medical facilities in the last three years, in addition to twenty-one of their rescue centers.

A US Invitation for France to Syria

30 September 2018

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis heads to Paris on Tuesday to discuss the issue of fighting terrorism and French presence in Syria with President Emmanuel Macron and Minister of Armed Forces Florence Parly.

During the one-day visit, the first after taking office in 2017, Mattis will thank “France and congratulate it on its fighting terrorism campaigns, which are going on pretty well in west Africa and the East,” said Pentagon Spokesman Erik Pahon on Sunday.

While the Syrian government is asking US, Turkish, and French forces to leave Syria “immediately”, Washington hopes that Paris will keep special forces in the north of the country controlled by Syrian Democratic Forces, allies with the anti-jihadist international coalition.

“We will stay in Syria as long as necessary” so that the jihadists cannot re-locate there, the spokesman said. “The coalition will stay in Syria and it is the coalition that will decide whether France, Germany or another country will stay there,” he said. “But France is one of the few member countries of the coalition to assist us in Syria. We hope that it will stay there.”

France is taking part in the battles against ISIS in Iraq and Syria along with the US-led international coalition, which includes fighter jets, artillery, and special forces advising Kurdish fighters.

No figures were given on these special forces, whose presence on the ground is rarely recognized by French authorities. But last April, Mattis revealed that “the French have reinforced us in Syria with special forces in the last two weeks.”

On Saturday, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem demanded the departure of the French, US, and Turkish troops from Syria, denouncing “the illegitimate international coalition led by the United States,” deployed in Syria “under the pretext of fighting terrorism.”

After Paris, Mattis will head for Brussels to participate in a ministerial meeting of NATO on Wednesday and Thursday.

James Jeffery, the US Special Representative for Syria Engagement, said that the United States would maintain a presence in Syria as long as Iran is present there, however, he said that the United States’ role would not necessarily involve boots on the ground.

Jeffery was clarifying a recent comment by a senior official who appeared to suggest that troops would stay indefinitely to counter Iran.

Such an objective would drastically alter the mission in Syria first authorized by President Barack Obama, who set a goal of defeating ISIS, which also considers Iran a foe.

“Boots on the ground have the current mission of the enduring defeat of ISIS,” Jeffery said.

“Changing Assad … Through the Constitution”

28 September 2018

The Small Group on Syria, which includes the United States, France, Britain, Germany, Saudi Arabi, Egypt, and Jordan, called on UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura to urgently set up the first meeting of the committee commissioned with drafting the constitution in order to hold elections in the country.

In a joint statement, the ministers stressed that “there is no military solution for the war,” saying that there is “no option other than the political solution.”

They warned that “those who seek a military solution will only succeed in increasing the risk of a dangerous escalation and wider conflagration of the crisis to the region and beyond.”

In an interview with Asharq al-Awsat, the new US envoy to Syria James Jeffery said that his country’s goal was not to remove Assad. “We will be happy if he leaves and declares his departure voluntarily. But this is not our goal. Our goal is a different Syria that does not threaten its people or neighbors, does not use chemical weapons, does not expel refugees and displace people from its territory, and does not provide Iran with a platform to launch rockets against Israel. Our goals include holding those who committed war crimes accountable. Assad’s fate is something that Syrians will decide. If Assad is able to lead Syria in this direction then this a matter that Syrians should consider,” he said.

“Nouri al-Maliki (former Iraqi Prime Minister) was removed from office through the constitution because he could not prevent ISIS from taking control of areas in Iraq. No country in the Middle East had removed a leader because he did not meet the expectations of his people… I was present when the Iraqi constitution was drafted, and I was skeptical; but the Iraqis believed in the constitution, and I do not know what prevents Syria from moving in this direction,” the US envoy added.

The Heavy Weaponry in Idlib

1 October 2018

There have been conflicting reports on Syrian opposition factions withdrawing their heavy arms from the “demilitarized zone” in northern Syria as per the agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi on 17 September.

“There have been no withdrawals of heavy weapons from any area or any front. This report is denied, completely denied,” said Naji Mustafa the spokesman for the National Front for Liberation (NLF), after the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported the day before on the first withdrawal of heavy weaponry by al-Sham Corps.

The Russian-Turkish agreement, which was reached in the Russian city of Sochi, provides for the establishment of a fifteen to twenty kilometer demilitarized zone between the frontlines of government forces and opposition factions on the outskirts of Idlib and parts of the adjacent governorates, specifically in the northern countryside of Hama, the western countryside of Aleppo, and the northern countryside of Lattakia.

The agreement, which spared the last opposition stronghold an all-out offensive by Damascus, stipulates that all factions in the buffer zone must hand in their heavy weapons by 10 October and radical groups must withdraw by 15 October, while Turkish forces and Russian military police would be deployed in the area.

Al-Izza Army, a Syrian opposition faction active in the northern countryside of Hama, announced its rejection of the agreement in a statement, the first public rejection by a non-radical organization. This comes after the National Front for Liberation, a coalition of opposition factions that includes Ahrar al-Sham, welcomed the agreement last week, affirming its distrust of the Russian side.

There has been no official public position from Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra), which controls more than half of Idlib and had previously said that it refuses to negotiate its weapons. However, it held intensive internal talks on Sunday to take a final decision regarding the agreement, according to the SOHR.

The Guardians of Religion organization expressed its refusal of “these conspiracies and all these steps,” in a statement circulated on social media last week.

Disputes Surrounding the Interpretation of Idlib

29 September 2018

Four points of dispute have emerged regarding the interpretation of the Sochi agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Idlib.

The agreement provided for a demilitarized zone in opposition areas, north of Syria and not between front lines between government and opposition forces. It also included a timetable to withdraw heavy arms by 10 October and “getting rid of fanatics” by 15 October. Sources said that Moscow has informed Tehran, Damascus, and Ankara that “in case the dates were not fully implemented, military operations and airstrikes against Idlib would be launched immediately.”

According to the sources, the first dispute revolves around the depth of the demilitarized zone, between fifteen and twenty kilometers. Moscow is seeking to include Idlib and other major cities in this zone, but Ankara refuses. The second dispute is related to the Aleppo-Lattakia road and Aleppo-Hama road. Russia wants to see Damascus control these two roads before the end of the year, while Ankara insists that they be monitored by Russia and Turkey.

The third dispute is over the fate of the fanatics, as Ankara wants to see them transferred to Kurdish areas while Moscow insists on “terminating foreign fighters”. The two sides also disagree on the range of the Sochi agreement. Sources said that “Moscow wants a temporary agreement similar to the ones implemented in the de-escalation areas of Daraa, Ghouta, and Homs, while Ankara wants to have it permanent, similar to the one implemented in the areas of the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch operations.

Opening of Nassib Border Crossing is Postponed

29 September 2018

Reuters

Official Syrian media said on Saturday that Nassib border crossing with Jordan will be reopened on 10 October, three years after the trade route was closed by opposition fighters. A previous statement from the Ministry of Transportation had announced that the movement of trucks and goods through the crossing had already been restored. However, the Jordanian government denied that, saying that “the two sides are still studying the reopening of the border.”

Following the denial by Amman, Syrian state media ran a new statement by the transportation ministry saying that “logistic preparations to reopen the crossing are now complete, so that the Nassib border crossing with Jordan will reopen on the tenth of October and start receiving truck and transit traffic.” The crossing is considered a vital economic artery for Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon.

S-300 and the Iranian Presence!

27-29 September 2018

Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Friday that the delivery of the S-300 missile defense system to Syria had already begun, and warned Western powers of attempting to undermine UN-led efforts to end the seven-year conflict.

Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on Monday the system would be delivered to Syria in two weeks despite strong Israeli and US objections. A week prior, Moscow accused Israel of indirectly causing the downing of a Russian military jet in Syria.

Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Supreme National Security Council in Iran, said Israel will be sorry if it continues to attack the Syrian army and its allies. Shamkhani made the comments during a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev, in Tehran.

On Tuesday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would continue its military operations in Syria, after Russia announced it would supply an advanced anti-aircraft system to its Syrian ally. “We will continue to act to prevent Iranian military entrenchment in Syria and we will continue the military coordination between the Israel Defense Forces and the Russian army,” said Netanyahu.

The White House said it hoped Russia would reconsider the move, which US National Security Adviser John Bolton called a “significant escalation” of Syria’s seven-year war. Bolton said a political process was needed to end Syria’s war but that Russia’s plans with the S-300 made that difficult. He said US troops would stay in Syria. “We are not going to leave as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders, and that includes Iranian proxies and militias.”

Dispute Surrounding the Endowments

30 September 2018

Decree Number 16 of 20 September 2018 regarding the work of the ministry of endowments has stirred a lot of controversy because it was issued before its draft was distributed and discussed transparently. The most important thing is that it expands the powers of the ministry and the minister, including restricting the term of mufti to three years instead of for life, based on a proposal by the minister of endowments. There are other controversial issues as well such as the formation of a religious youth group.

Syria in a Week (24 September 2018)

Syria in a Week (24 September 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

Idlib: The “Jihad” is in the Details

Analysis from Salon Syria

24 September 2018

The Russian-Turkish agreement on Idlib has serious challenges and complexities in its implementation, although it does have some positive aspects. This leads to the belief that the Sochi agreement will only help in stabilizing the situation in Idlib for a few months because it merely postpones the battle and does not prevent it.

The agreement, made public after a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi on 17 September, is comprised of ten points, including: keeping the de-escalation zone according to the May Astana agreement, fortifying the twelve Turkish observation posts, a fifteen to twenty kilometers demilitarized zone, and the ousting of all terrorist groups in this zone by 15 October, after the withdrawal of heavy weapons before 10 October.

It also stipulates that the Russian and Turkish armies will conduct joint patrols in the safe zone, in addition to “guaranteeing the free movement of local residents and goods, and restoring commercial and economic ties,” and the opening of Aleppo-Lattakia and Aleppo-Hama roads before the end of the year.

However, it also contains numerous ambiguous points, which leads to the belief that “the devil is in the details”:

1- The manner by which the fanatics would be “ousted”, especially that this has to be done in two to three weeks. Will this be carried out through “segregation”, “displacement”, or through “military action” and who will actually do this?

2- Difficulty in separating between Tahrir al-Sham, which includes Fat’h al-Sham (previously Nusra) and includes ten thousand members, and the National Front for Liberation which includes thirty thousand members. Add to that the fact that Tahrir al-Sham refused the agreement and criticized Turkey, likening Ankara’s position in Idlib to that of the UN in Srebrenica, which suffered a massacre in the nineties of the previous century. There is also difficulty in separating foreign fighters affiliated with al-Qaeda, who number more than two thousand, from the rest of Syrian fighters.

3- One of the circulating ideas is to move those who refuse the settlement from the “safe zone” to Turkish-controlled areas in northern Syria and the possibility of moving others to Kurdish-majority areas. But, how will this be carried out in such a short time?

4- The plan includes the opening of the major roads between Aleppo and Hama and between Aleppo and Lattakia. Who will protect these roads? Who will deploy observation points? This also applies for “commercial” points between opposition areas in Idlib and government areas.

5- Syrian sovereignty will symbolically return to the north, including the flag and some institutions. But what about the military presence of Damascus?

6- Some people believe that the Russian and Turkish armies along with the armies of other countries will launch an offensive against fanatics who refuse the settlement, especially because Moscow has a plan to eliminate two thousand foreign fighters. How would this be reflected in the position of the rest of the opposition factions? What would the Islamic factions’ response be?

The Russian and Turkish armies continue their consultations and exchange of security information. Turkey has also sent military reinforcements and special units to the twelve observation points in northern Syria, in addition to the possibility of carrying out covert assassinations.

Implementing the agreement constitutes a difficult test for Moscow and Ankara. At the same time, Damascus and Tehran are betting on the failure of the settlement option in order to resume the military option and drag Moscow into a military resolution similar to what happened in previous places… and the return to the postponed battle of Idlib.

“This is not a peace deal. It is an aversion of a whole-scale-war deal,” the head of the United Nations Humanitarian Taskforce for Syria Jan Egeland said in Geneva. “I see a great potential for a lot of fighting … We are concerned for the civilians in these areas, so it is not over,” he added.

International Legitimacy for the Sochi Deal

21 September 2018

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that Turkey asked France to “support” the Russian-Turkish agreement on Idlib in the UN Security Council, according to an interview with Le Monde newspaper published on Saturday.

Le Drian said that the international pressure and warning of a looming humanitarian crisis in Idlib had proven effective.

He stressed the role played by France, especially after the failure of the Astana-sponsoring countries in reaching an agreement in Tehran. He referred to “Turkey’s request for France to act in the Security Council to support the agreement (reached by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan) with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Idlib.”

After a summit at the Sochi resort on Monday, the Russian and Turkish presidents announced a deal to establish a “demilitarized zone” in Idlib on 15 October, averting an offensive by the Syrian government on Idlib governorate, which is populated by more than three million people.

In recent weeks, the Syrian government brought in reinforcements to the outskirts of Idlib, which borders Turkey. Dozens of civilians were killed as a result of bombardment by Syrian forces and airstrikes by Russian planes, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

The UN and human rights groups warned that the Syrian government offensive would cause a “blood bath” in Idlib and “the worst humanitarian crisis” in the current century.

The Turkish-Russian agreement could be adopted “through a resolution or a statement by the Security Council,” a French diplomatic source said, adding that the issue is still under discussion in New York.

The United Nations will hold its seventy-third general assembly in New York next week. The issue of Idlib is expected to dominate the discussions.

Al-Assad Between Two Cables of Condolences

19 September 2018

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sent a cable of condolence to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin two days after the downing of a Russian plane in the Mediterranean, however, he sent a cable of condolence to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani only two hours after an armed attack in Ahwaz, Iran.

“On behalf of the Syrian people and by my name, we express our deep condolences to the friendly Russian people over the fall of the Russian military jet on the Mediterranean, causing the martyrdom of the Russian heroes who were doing their noble duties along with their colleagues of the Russian military forces in the fight against terrorism in Syria,” the President said in the first cable published by the Syrian news agency SANA.

“This regrettable incident was a result of the Israeli usual revelry which always uses the dirtiest means to achieve its low purposes and carry out its aggression in our region,” Assad added.

“We are completely confident that such a tragic event will not dissuade you or us in continuing the fight against terrorism,” Assad said.

Syrian air defense systems brought down a Russian military plane carrying fifteen Russian personnel during the course of responding to Israeli bombing on the coastal city of Lattakia on Monday.

On 22 September, the cable for the Iranian president said: “I extend to you and the friendly people of Iran, on the behalf of the people of the Syrian Arab Republic and on my own behalf, deepest condolences for the innocent victims, and condemn in the strongest terms this cowardly and criminal terrorist act.”

Assad praised Iran’s position “against terrorism in Syria and expressed his hope that “supporters, financers, and proponents of terrorism will understand that this danger threatens mankind as a whole, urging them to reconsider their positions.”

The attack, which was adopted by ISIS and an Ahwazi-Arab group, targeted a military parade in the city of Ahwaz in southwest of Iran, left twenty-nine dead and more than fifty injured, according to an official tally. The attack came on the national day for armed forces, which is celebrated on 22 September in memory of the day Baghdad declared war on Tehran (1980-1988).

“Media War” Between Russia and Israel

24 September 2018

The Israeli army refused the conclusions of the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding the downing of a Russian plane west of Syria, in what resembles a “media war” between Moscow and Tel Aviv.

The Russian army said that “misleading” information from the Israeli air force caused the downing of the Russian plane in Syria, denouncing the “adventurism” of Israeli pilots.

Russian military spokesman Igor Konashenkov presented the findings of the investigation in the downing of the Ilyushin-20 plane that was carrying fifteen soldiers by a Syrian air defense missile which was accidentally fired on 17 September.

Moscow accused Israeli pilots of using the bigger Ilyushin as a cover, resulting in Syria’s Soviet-era S-200 air defense system interpreting the Russian plane as a target.

Israel denied this version of events and its air force commander flew to Moscow to clarify the situation.

An Israeli military official confirmed on Friday that operational procedures agreed to with Russia in Syria are still in place after the death of fifteen Russian soldiers whose plane was shot down on Monday, hinting that Israel maintains the freedom to move in neighboring countries.

An Israeli delegation led by the air force chief General Amikam Norkin visited Moscow on Thursday in an attempt to calm down the situation and clarify the circumstances of how Syrian air defense mistakenly brought down a Russian military plane when Syrian forces were responding to an Israeli airstrike.

An army statement said that the “two sides stressed the importance of national interests and the continued implementation of the de-confliction system.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he dispatched General Norkin to Moscow to “preserve the cooperation between our two countries,” among other things.

Russian Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that Syrian air defense shot down an IL-20 Russian plane on Monday as it was flying over the Mediterranean, thirty-five kilometers from the Syrian coast, on its way back to Hmeimeim base in Lattakia governorate.

The Israeli army said in a statement that General Norkin presented “the situation report for that night … from all aspects.”

The Russian Defense Ministry initially accused Israeli fighters of “using the Russian plane as a cover, thus putting it in the line of fire of Syrian air defense.”

However, Israel denies this, and its army affirmed that the Russian plane was far from Syrian positions targeted by the Israeli airstrike. It added that “when the Syrian army fired the missiles that hit the plane, Israeli jets had already returned to Israeli airspace.”

Putin sought to defuse the situation, saying in a Kremlin statement that the “matter is most likely a chain of tragic and accidental circumstances.” He urged the Israeli side not to allow such incidents to occur once more.

However, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad pointed accusations at Israel on Wednesday and said in a cable of condolence to Putin that “this regrettable incident was a result of the Israeli usual revelry.”

Russia is considered the most prominent Assad ally, and has been offering broad diplomatic, political, and economic support to him since the onset of the conflict in 2011. Its military intervention, which started three years ago, has also contributed to Damascus regaining the lead on various fronts.

In a rare move, the Israeli army acknowledged it had conducted the airstrike, and confirmed targeting a facility for the Syrian army that delivered systems used in manufacturing precise weapons to Lebanese Hezbollah.

Hezbollah responded through its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah who said in a televised speech on Wednesday night: “it is not true that what is being bombed in Syria is meant to be transported to Hezbollah in Lebanon,” accusing Israel of “lying” and “working on preventing Syria from acquiring missile capabilities.”

Israel acknowledged this month that it conducted two hundred airstrikes in Syria in the last eighteen months against mostly Iranian targets, in an unusual confirmation of such military operations. Since the onset of the conflict in Syria in 2011, Israel has repeatedly bombed Syrian army targets and others for Iran and Hezbollah.

“There has been no change in the non-engagement mechanism (between Israel and Russia) after this unfortunate incident. The non-engagement mechanism and operational procedures remain the same and have not changed,” an Israeli official said. “Non-engagement” refers to the exchange of information between the two countries and reducing the possibility of confrontations.

This mechanism between Israel and Russia was adopted in 2015 after Russian forces intervened in favor of Syrian forces in order to avoid a confrontation between the Russian and Israeli armies in Syria.

However, this coordination witnessed the most serious incident as of yet when Syrian air defense mistakenly hit a Russian reconnaissance plane in response to an Israeli airstrike on a military facility, which led to the death of the fifteen-member crew.

Hezbollah Will Stay “Until Further Notice”

19 September 2018

On Wednesday, Secretary General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah confirmed that his fighters will stay in Syria until further notice, despite the calmness on the fronts after reaching the Russian-Turkish agreement on Idlib, the last stronghold of opposition factions. Nasrallah denied what Israel announced regarding its targeting two days earlier of a Syrian army facility during the transportation of missile systems to his party in Lebanon, accusing it of “lying”.

“We will stay there after the settlement in Idlib and calmness in Idlib … we will stay there until further notice,” Nasrallah said in a televised speech in front of thousands of his supporters in the southern suburb of Beirut, his party’s stronghold, on the eve of Ashura commemoration.

“The calmness on the fronts and the decline of threats will, of course, affect the current number (of fighters),” he said, adding that the increase or decrease of the number is associated with “the responsibilities and the scope of threats and challenges.”

The Iranian-backed Hezbollah has been publicly fighting alongside the Syrian army since 2013. Its intervention has helped in resolving numerous battles in Damascus’s favor. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimated the number of Hezbollah deaths in Syria at one thousand six hundred and sixty-five.

Nasrallah’s remarks come two days after a Russian-Turkish agreement to establish a “demilitarized” zone in Idlib governorate, northwest of Syria, in a step that would spare this area from a large-scale offensive. “What happened is a step towards the possibility of a political solution, and this is a good and acceptable thing; and depends on the results and strict implementation of the terms of the agreement,” Nasrallah said.

“Based on the settlement in Idlib, if things go well and are implemented in a suitable manner, we can assume that Syria is going towards great calm, and there will be no effective fighting fronts,” he added.

Syrian government forces, backed by their allies, have regained control of vast areas in the last two years. They now control about two thirds of the country.

On the other hand, Nasrallah accused Israel of “working on preventing Syria from acquiring missile capabilities,” after the bombing of the coastal city of Lattakia on Monday night.

“It is not true that what is being bombed in Syria is meant to be transported to Hezbollah in Lebanon,” he said replying to the Israeli army’s declaration that it targeted a facility for the Syrian army that was delivering systems used in manufacturing precise weapons to Lebanese Hezbollah.

During its response to the Israeli airstrike, Syrian air defense systems shot down a Russian plane near Lattakia, according to Moscow, resulting in the deaths of “fifteen Russian personnel.”

Nasrallah acknowledged in his speech on Wednesday that Israeli airstrikes “in some place were related to the transportation of weapons.” However, he said that “many” of them “were not related to this issue at all,” affirming that Israel is “preventing the establishment of the Syrian army as a true military force” in Syria.

Syria in a Week (14 May 2018)

Syria in a Week (14 May 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Iranian Nukes … From a Syrian Perspective

8-9 May 2018

Reuters and Al-Jazeera

President Donald Trump declared the US withdrawal from the 2015 Iranian nuclear dear on Tuesday.

The decision came after repeated threats from the US administration to abolish the deal, which it describes as “catastrophic.” Trump signed a presidential memorandum on Wednesday to start imposing strict economic sanctions on Iran, noting the gravity of the deal that allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium, thus increasing the potential of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. (Al-Jazeera)

US pressure failed to convince European partners in the deal to withdraw, as the European Union, Germany, France, and Britain declared that they will remain in the deal. However, the nature of US sanctions imposed on companies that maintain business dealings with Iran will put a lot of pressure on future economic cooperation between Iran and Europe.

Israel, the main beneficiary of sanctions on Iran, welcomed the US withdrawal, as did Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. On its part, Iran said that it would remain in the deal despite the US withdrawal, while Russia and China supported the continuation of the deal (Reuters), reflecting the evident scope of international and regional tensions, which possess great potential for deterioration.

These tensions were manifested on the ground in Syria as the battle between Iran and Israel started to evolve into a direct confrontation. After Israel declared, or leaked, that it attacked Iranian positions or forces in Syria numerous times, including the attack on the T-4 base in central Syria, Iran threatened that Israeli aggressions will not go unpunished.

 

Netanyahu in Moscow and Airstrikes in Syria

7 May 2018

Reuters and Al-Mayadeen

Al-Mayadeen TV channel said on Wednesday that the Resistance Axis carried out a rocket attack on four Israeli military positions in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, making it the first military offensive in the area since 1974. This offensive came one day after President Trump declared the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. No one has officially claimed responsibility for the attack. Israel said that Iran launched twenty Grad and Fajr missiles, which were intercepted by the Iron Dome anti-missile system or did not reach their targets in Golan, adding that the Quds Force, a special forces unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard responsible for external operations, is the party that launched the rockets. Israel also said that it carried out rocket attacks on Iranian bases in Syria in retaliation to the “Iranian attacks” on Golan, increasing the fears of deterioration into a large-scale regional conflict.

Syrian official media said that Israel carried out rocket aggressions in the early hours of Thursday, striking air defense positions and an ammunition depot. The Russian news agency reported that Syrian air defenses intercepted half of the Israeli missiles. Official Syrian media sources stated that Israel launched a rocket attack on a target near Damascus on Tuesday, a short time after President Trump’s announcement of the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal. The Israeli army said that after observing “irregular activities” of the Iranian forces in Syria, it issued orders for civil authorities in the Golan Heights to prepare shelters, in addition to deploying new defenses and calling reserve forces. (Reuters)

Russia, Germany, and France called for self-restraint and wisdom, whereas the US administration condemned the Iranian offensive. Trump’s administration portrayed its opposition to the nuclear deal by saying that the opposition, in one of its aspects, is a response to Tehran’s military intervention in the region.

The irony in the regional scene is that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was on a visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the eve of the large-scale Israeli offensive on Syria. Israel said that it informed Russia of the attack beforehand. This indicates the complexity of alliances and interests regarding the Syrian war.

The intensity of the escalating rhetoric decreased on Thursday, as Netanyahu considered the response adequate and the Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that he hoped that the violence with Iran on the Syrian borders was over. It is worth mentioning that the Israeli Ministers for Defense and Energy had previously threatened the Syrian government in case it allowed for the continuation of Iranian presence on Syrian territories.

Regional powers do not seem to be ready to de-escalate as of yet, and there is increasing potential for new forms in the Syrian war with all the investment in arming, aggressions, violations, and incitement, especially when the conflict is linked to issues such as occupation, identity, hegemony, and tyranny.

 

Corrosion of al-Hajar al-Aswad (Black Rock)

13 May 2018

Reuters and Enab Baladi

Fierce battles between government forces and ISIS have continued in the neighborhoods of al-Hajar al-Aswad and Yarmouk Camp south of the capital Damascus. Although the Syrian army is advancing, it is a slow advance accompanied by huge human losses according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, due to the nature of street wars in residential areas and the use of tunnels by ISIS fighters in the battles. As of Sunday, the government holds control of eighty percent of the neighborhood with some parts of Yarmouk Camp still under the control of ISIS

The official SANA news agency said that there were two terrorist explosions, one in Maisat Square and the other in Damascus Tower which left two people dead and fourteen others injured. There were conflicting reports of whether the explosions were a result of a car bomb or rockets launched by ISIS fighters in Yarmouk Camp.

The government expanded their control to the neighborhoods of Yalda, Bibila, and Beit Saham that are adjacent to al-Hajar al-Aswad and Yarmouk Camp after an agreement between Russia and the Syrian government on one hand opposition factions on the other, which provided for the exit of eight thousand six hundred and thirty-two civilians and fighters towards northern Syria, who were distributed between the northern countryside of Aleppo and Idlib. (Enab Baladi)

 

The Last of Enclaves

13 May 2018

Reuters

The last besieged enclave of the opposition is taking the same course of Ghouta. The Syrian government army and opposition factions said that thousands of opposition fighters and civilians left the last main besieged enclave for the opposition in Syria after the factions handed in their heavy weaponry, and opposition fighters not willing to stay started getting ready to leave for areas controlled by opposition forces in northern Syria. This means that future fronts between government forces and opposition factions will be concentrated in the southern front, the north-western countryside of Aleppo, Idlib, and north-east of Syria with the Syrian Democratic Forces.