بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | أكتوبر 31, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
The Istanbul Summit and Syria: Four Leaders and Four Positions
27 October 2018
Leaders of Turkey, Russia, France, and Germany called for preserving the ceasefire in Idilb governorate and a “political solution” for the conflict in Syria during a summit they held in Istanbul, Turkey on Saturday.
The meeting “stressed the importance of a lasting ceasefire (in Idlib) and the need to continue the fight against terrorism,” said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the final statement of the summit.
The statement praised the “progress” achieved in Idlib in regards to the establishment of a demilitarized zone and the withdrawal of fanatic groups according to the Turkish-Russian agreement reached in September.
The summit was attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in addition to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The four leaders affirmed their determination “to work together to create favorable circumstances to preserve peace and security in Syria” and “support a political solution and strengthen international consensus on this issue.”
They also called for “the formation of a constitutional committee and for it to convene in Geneva before the end of the year if conditions are favorable.” The final statement also said that the four countries “stressed the need to create conditions that provide for the voluntary and safe return of Syrian refugees.”
It is up to the Syrian people “inside and abroad” to decide the fate of President Bashar al-Assad, said Erdogan at the end of the Summit on Saturday.
The French president called on Russia to apply very clear pressure on the Syrian government to “ensure a permanent ceasefire in Idlib,” saying “we are counting on Russia to exert a very clear pressure on the government which very clearly owes it its survival.”
Moscow “reserves the right to help the Syrian government in eliminating any terrorist threat in Idlib in case the fanatics launch an attack,” said the Russian president in a press release.
“We have to push the political process forward, which should lead to free and open elections to all Syrians, including those abroad,” said the German chancellor.
The summit was not attended by two active countries in the Syrian conflict, the two rivals Iran and the United States. However, Macron called US President Donald Trump on Thursday to coordinate positions.
On the issue of Russian influence after victories of the Syrian government, US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Saturday that Russia cannot “replace the United States” in the Middle East.
Bombing Idlib: Who’s Responsible?
26 October 2018
The military leader of the opposition National Front for Liberations (NFL) blamed government forces for bombing the buffer zone in Hama and Idlib governorates on Saturday.
The military leader, who asked for his name not to be identified, told a news agency: “government forces continue their breach of the Sochi agreement by bombing demilitarized areas controlled by NFL factions. Twenty-five shells fell on the outskirts of Mork city in the northern countryside of Hama, and the town of al-Taman’eh in the southeastern countryside of Idlib was also bombed.”
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said that “government forces targeted the village of al-Raffeh in the southern countryside of Idlib with artillery bombardment, killing seven civilians including three children and three women.”
Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra) controls this town which is located outside the demilitarized zone established by Russia and Turkey according to an agreement reached on 17 September. The agreement spared the governorate of Idlib a military offensive that Damascus hinted to for weeks.
The SOHR said the number of deaths is “the highest” in Idlib since the Russian-Turkish agreement.
The western outskirts of Aleppo city witnessed an exchange of gunfire between the factions and government forces for two consecutive days, according to the SOHR.
A child was killed in government bombing of the Kafr Hamra town in the western countryside of Aleppo, while one week before that three civilians were killed as a result of shells launched by opposition factions.
Since the agreement was announced, Idlib and surrounding areas have witnessed calmness on battle fronts to a great extent, however, there has been intermittent bombing from both sides.
The Russian-Turkish agreement provides for the establishment of a demilitarized zone in Idlib and surrounding areas. The withdrawal of heavy weapons has been completed as a first step, but jihadist factions were supposed to evacuate by mid-October.
Although jihadist have not withdrawn yet, both Moscow and Ankara have stressed that the agreement is being implemented.
Despite the agreement, Damascus has reiterated its intention to regain control of all Syrian territory, including Idlib.
Syria “will not allow Idlib to turn into new caves for terrorists,” the official Syrian news agency SANA reported the Syrian UN representative Bashar al-Jaafari as saying during a meeting of the UN Security Council on Friday.
“It is normal for the Syrian government to fight terrorism in Idlib to rid its people of terrorism and extend its sovereignty over it,” he said.
Idlib, which hosts around three million people, is the last stronghold of opposition and jihadist factions in Syria. The majority of Idlib is controlled by Tahrir al-Sham.
Bombing Before the Ink Dried
28 October 2018
Turkish forces bombed positions of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) on the eastern bank of the Euphrates river in northern Syria, according to the Anatolia news agency on Sunday.
The news agency said that the bombardment targeted the Zor Maghar area, east of Ain al-Arab in northern Syria, and that it meant to prevent “terrorist activities”.
Turkey carried out an offensive against the YPG in the Syrian city of Afrin last year, and repeatedly said that it would target the YPG east of the Euphrates.
The bombardment came during the Istanbul summit as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to target “terrorist”, in a reference to Kurds east of the Euphrates.
Erdogan gave an ultimatum on Friday for those who are jeopardizing the security of Turkish border, and said that Turkey is determined to focus on Syrian Kurds east of the Euphrates.
Addressing a group of regional leaders in the Justice and Development Party in Ankara, Erdogan added that Turkey will focus on east of the Euphrates in Syria and not Manbej because of the presence of the YPG.
Turkey considers the YPG a terrorist group.
“The Sun Rises from Moscow”
26 October 2018
The chief negotiator of the Syrian opposition said during his visit to Moscow on Friday that the opposition is “seeking to reach an understanding” with Russia to find a political solution that ends the ongoing war in the country since 2011.
“We have strived and will continue to strive for dialogue and negotiations with Russia to achieve a political solution,” Hariri told reporters before he met the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
“We think it is in Russia’s interest right now to look for a comprehensive political solution, it is in our interest as well,” he said.
“We all know that Russia is a country that has major influence on the Syrian issue, and influence outside the Syrian issue … we still believe that Russia is capable of seizing this this historic moment to help fix the relationship with the Syrian people.”
Hariri said that fixing this relationship requires Moscow “to adopt a rational political solution that not only takes the interests of the government, but also takes into account the people who revolted for eight years and paid a heavy price.”
Since the Russian military intervention in Syria to support President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, the Syrian opposition have repeatedly characterized this intervention as an “occupation”.
But Hariri’s remarks signaled the Syrian opposition’s readiness for more concessions following the government’s battlefield successes.
After the meeting between Hariri and Lavrov, Moscow said their talks had a “frank exchange of opinions” and that they stressed the need to settle the crisis as soon as possible.
Confrontation over the Syrian Constitution
25 October 2018
The UN Security Council held a session on Friday called for by the United States to discuss the Syrian crisis after Damascus refused the formation of a UN-sponsored committee to draft a new constitution.
UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura failed to acquire the Syrian government’s approval regarding the constitutional committee, which he was commissioned to form during a Syrian dialogue conference organized by Russia in Sochi in January.
De Mistura did not attend the Security Council session in person, but was present through video conference.
However, de Mistura told the Security Council in person last week that he had decided to resign from his position by the end of November and that he would work in the remaining period to overcome obstacles facing the formation of the constitutional committee.
In the last few months, de Mistura sought to form a constitutional committee that would include one hundred and fifty members to revive the negotiation track between the two sides of the Syrian conflict.
Both Damascus and the opposition’s High Negotiations Committee presented a list of fifty representatives. De Mistura, who was commissioned to present a third list of fifty names, told the Security Council that Damascus did not approve of the name he chose to take part in the committee, stressing the need for the committee not to be dominated by any side.
After choosing the members of the committee, fifteen members, representing the three lists, will be commissioned with making “constitutional reforms,” according to de Mistura.
The Syrian government and the opposition have different views regarding the tasks of this committee. Damascus restricts its powers to discussing the current constitution, while the opposition says that its objective is to draft a new constitution.
SANA reported the Syrian Foreign Minister Waleed Moualem, who met de Mistura on Wednesday, as saying that “this whole process should be under Syrian leadership and ownership, considering that the constitution, and anything related to it, is a purely sovereign matter that will be decided on by the Syrian people themselves without any foreign intervention, by which some parties and countries seek to impose their will on the Syrian people.”
Western countries have called on the UN envoy to form this committee as soon as possible to resume the political process after it was dominated by parallel diplomatic efforts led by Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
Since 2016, de Mistura has headed nine rounds of indirect talks between Damascus and the opposition, with little progress to settle the conflict that has led to the deaths of more than three hundred and sixty thousand people since its onset in 2011.
A US Drone Storm on Hmeimeim
24 October 2018
The Russian deputy defense minister accused the United States of attacking the main Russian airbase in Syria. General Alexander Fomin said in a statement reported by TASS news agency that a US reconnaissance airplane took control of thirteen drones in order to attack the Russian Hmeimeim airbase in January.
TASS reported Fomin as saying during a security conference in Beijing that a US P-8 Poseidon airplane was on “manual control” of the drones as it flew near them.
On 5 January, more than twelve drones loaded with explosives attacked the Russian airbase in Hmeimiem and the marine base in Tartus west of Syria, in a night attack, according to a report from the Russian defense ministry that was released a few days after.
At that time, the Russian army said in a statement that it was able to overtake radio communication with some drones and control them, while other drones were destroyed.
The Russian army also said then that a US plane was flying over the Mediterranean and may be involved in the attack, without presenting any charges.
The Kremlin said that the presence of evidence implicating the United States in the attack on the Russian base is “extremely disturbing”.
ISIS Returns to Eastern Syria
28 October 2018
ISIS retook control of all areas it lost after the advance of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is a coalition of Kurdish and Arab factions, in the last enclave it controls in Deir Azzor governorate in eastern Syria, according to the SOHR on Sunday.
On 10 September, the SDF, with support from the US-led international coalition, launched a military operation against ISIS in the area of Hajeeen, in the eastern countryside of Deir Azzor near the Iraqi border.
These forces were able to advance and control several towns and villages. However, two weeks ago, ISIS launched a counter-attack, taking advantage of a sand storm in this desert region, according to the SOHR.
The Head of the SOHR Rami Abdurrahman told the AFP “in vast attacks that continued from Friday until early Sunday, ISIS was able to regain control over all the areas that the SDF had advanced to.”
A leader in the SDF, who did not wish to be identified, confirmed to the AFP that ISIS had indeed retaken control of all the areas it lost during the last seven weeks. He attributed this to the “sand storm and ISIS’s knowledge of the area more than our forces.”
The SDF has dispatched military reinforcement, according to the SOHR.
“Military reinforcements and heavy weaponry have been sent to the fronts. Some units will be replaced with more experienced and capable units,” said the leader in SDF, adding that “a new military campaign will be launched immediately after the reinforcements arrive.”
Since Friday, ISIS’s attacks have led to the deaths of seventy-two members of the SDF, according to the SOHR.
The battles have led to the deaths of around five hundred jihadists and more than three hundred fighters from the SDF since 10 September, according to the SOHR.
The international coalition estimates the number of ISIS fighters in the enclave to be around two thousand. The coalition spokesman Sean Ryan told the AFP on Saturday that “the sandstorm allowed an ISIS counterattack … but now the air is clear, the coalition will continue to increase air and fire support to assist our partners.”
ISIS suffered consecutive defeats in Syria in the last two years, and now only controls a few small pockets at the far end of Deir Azzor and in the Syrian desert east of Homs.
Flashfloods and Hell
28 October 2018
Anatolia news agency reported that six immigrants died on the Turkish border with Syria after they were swept away by flashfloods. The news agency said that the immigrants were trying to illegally cross into Turkey’s border with Syria in the Hatay region. The agency did not specify the nationality of the immigrants.
Turkey, which now hosts three and a half million Syrian refugees, was a main crossroad for more than a million immigrants who went by sea to the European Union in 2015. Many of them were fleeing conflicts and poverty in the Middle East and Africa.
On a different note, a 44-year old Japanese journalist went back to his country and had rice balls prepared by his mother after spending three years as a hostage by fanatics in Syria, which was described as a physical and emotional “hell”.
Jumpei Yasuda, who resigned from his job in a Japanese newspaper to cover the Iraq war in 2003, arrived in Tokyo coming from Turkey, rekindling debate in Japan about journalism in war areas, which some sea as a reckless adventure and others see as a brave journalistic work.
TV footage showed the exhausted Yasude as he descended stairs on his way to the car waiting for him at Narita airport to take him to another building near the airport. To reporters’ calls of “Welcome home” he simply nodded with a strained smile as he disappeared down a corridor to where his family waited.
Later, his wife, a singer known as Myu, bowed deeply and apologized to a packed news conference at which Yasuda did not appear. “He would like to apologize for causing a fuss and making people worry about him, but fortunately he was able to safely return to Japan,” she said, sniffing back tears.
“He feels he has a responsibility to explain things to you as much as possible,” she added, but said this would have to wait until he had undergone medical checks.
Yasuda gave few details of his captivity but told his parents, who were also there, that he had worried they might not be alive, Myu said, adding that he ate some rice balls his mother had made for him “very happily”.
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | أكتوبر 24, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
US Strategy for Syria
22 October 2018
Informed sources say that President Trump’s administration asked US institutions to develop concrete proposals and a road map to implement the US strategy in Syria.
The current US strategy includes keeping special forces within the international coalition against ISIS east of the Euphrates in the Tanf base on the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordanian border to achieve three goals: eliminating ISIS and preventing its reemergence, getting rid of Iranian forces and militias, and pushing toward a UN-sponsored political solution under UN resolution 2254.
The sources say that US officials and experts are studying how to “use pressure and influence means, including controlling a third of Syrian territory, ninety percent of Syrian oil, and half the Syrian gas, in order to exercise pressure to reach the three goals,” stating that the White House is waiting for these proposals by the end of the year.
White Helmets in Canada
19 November 2018
The Canadian government said on Friday that is getting ready to resettle civil defense volunteers in areas controlled by Syrian opposition factions, also known as the White Helmets, along with their families, however, it did not disclose when they will arrive or where they will be resettled.
In a joint statement, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland and Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen said that “Canada is working with a group of international allies on resettling a number of White Helmets members and their families after they had to flee from Syria because they were being specifically targeted by the Syrian government and its Russian ally.”
White Helmets volunteers “witnessed firsthand, as paramedics, some of the most ferocious crimes committed by the criminal Assad government,” the statement said.
On 22 July, Jordan said that it received four hundred and twenty-two members from the White Helmets who fled areas in southern Syria before government forces regained control over them, with the aim of resettling them in Britain, Germany, or Canada.
On Wednesday, the Jordanian foreign ministry said that two hundred members of those had left to be resettled in Western countries.
The world first took notice of the White Helmets after photos appeared with them searching for survivors in the rubble and carrying children covered in blood to the hospital.
The White Helmets emerged in 2013, when the Syrian crisis was coming near to its third year. Since its establishment, more than two hundred of its volunteers have been killed and another five hundred injured.
Four-way Summit on Syria
18 October 2018
Ankara announced a four-way summit on Syria that includes the leaders of Turkey, Russia, Germany, and France to be held in Istanbul on 27 October.
The summit will join Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin.
The spokesman said that the four leaders will discuss the situation on the ground in Syria, the agreement on the demilitarized zone in Idlib that was reached by President Erdogan and President Putin during their summit in Sochi on 17 September, the political process, and various aspects of the Syria crisis.
The four-way summit is expected to “coordinate joint efforts to find a long-lasting solution to the Syrian conflict,” Kalin said.
Delegations from the four countries met in Istanbul on 14 September to prepare for the summit. The Turkish delegation was headed by Ibrahim Kalin, while the German delegation was headed by National Security Advisor Jan Hecker, Senior Diplomatic Advisor Philippe Etienne for the French delegation, and Senior Presidential Advisor Yuri Ushakov for the Russian delegation.
The three-hour preparatory meeting discussed the Syrian issue, especially developments regarding the de-escalation zone in Idlib, in addition to fighting terrorism and other regional issues.
The delegations included technical teams to arrange for the four-way summit called for by Erdogan in July. The summit was initially planned to be held in September but was then delayed.
An Extended Deadline for Idlib
15 October 2018
On Sunday night, the deadline passed for Tahrir al-Sham, which is mainly comprised of Nusra Front (previously), to evacuate the demilitarized buffer zone in Idlib that was set by the Russian-Turkish agreement in Sochi, without any withdrawal being monitored, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
Turkey has sought to convince Tahrir al-Sham, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda, to implement the agreement to avoid a Syrian government offensive which Turkey fears might cause a new influx of refugees towards its border.
Turkey has managed to implement the first phase of the agreement by convincing armed factions to hand over their heavy weaponry by 10 October.
Jan Egeland, UN Humanitarian Affairs Advisor said that Russia and Turkey plan to allow for more time to implement their agreement on the de-escalation zone in Idlib, a “great relief” for three million civilians in the area.
But there were still “a million unanswered questions” about how the deal would work, and what would happen if groups designated as terrorists refused to lay down their weapons, Egeland said.
Speaking after a regular Syria humanitarian meeting in Geneva, Egeland said that Russia had confirmed that Damascus had scrapped Law Number 10, a “very concerning” law allowing the expropriation of land and property from refugees.
Idlib and adjacent areas are the last strongholds of the opposition who rose up against President Bashar al-Assad in 2011, and the UN has warned that a battle to restore Assad’s control over the zone could be the worst of the seven-year-old war.
Turkey and Russia set up a buffer zone running between fifteen and twenty kilometers deep into opposition territory that originally had to be free of heavy weapons and fanatics by Monday.
“There will be more time for diplomacy,” Egeland said. “I was heartened to hear both Russia and Turkey say they are optimistic, they can achieve much more through negotiations, and they are generally very positive on the implementation of this deal which is giving a relief, a pause in fighting, to Idlib,” he added.
Egeland said there were twelve thousand humanitarian workers in the area, and Idlib had now gone five weeks without an air raid, something he could not remember in the past three years.
Four Candidates to Succeed De Mistura
18 October 2018
Russian-Western negotiations are underway to choose one of four candidates to succeed UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura who will leave his position at the end of the next month.
De Mistura told the UN Security Council that he will resign from his position at the end of November after four years as the third UN envoy to Syria after the late Kofi Anan and Lakhdar Brahimi. UN Humanitarian Affairs Envoy and Head of the Norwegian Council for Refugees Jan Egeland will also resign.
After de Mistura’s resignation announcement, consultations between UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and the five permanent UN Security Council countries reached a new level in order to find the fifth envoy to Syria. According to sources, there are four candidates: the first is Nikolai Mladenov, UN Representative for the Palestinian-Israeli Peace Process since 2015, who was previously the foreign minister of Bulgaria. It seems that the Russian side objected to his name, considering him “close to the United States and not impartial.” Damascus also informed Moscow of its reservations because of Mladenov’s “political position from Syria which he expressed when he was the foreign minister of Bulgaria.”
The second is UN Envoy in Iraq Jan Kubis, who is the former foreign minister of Slovakia. It has been reported that Washington has reservations against him because of his “proximity to the Russian position,” and because it thinks that his presence is “currently essential in Iraq, which is undergoing the formation of a new government and a political process following the elections.”
The third is the Algerian Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra. Moscow and Arab countries have pushed for Lamamra to succeed de Mistura, however, Western countries expressed their objection based on previous positions that “deny him the status of mediator”, referring to his statement in December of 2016 on the sidelines of the Peace and Security Conference in Africa: “What happened in Aleppo? The (Syrian) government was able to restore its sovereignty and control over the city. These people were hoping that terrorism would prevail in Aleppo and other areas. After terrorism failed there, they think it will be able to succeed in Algeria, which is the first country to strategically win against terrorism.”
The fourth is Geir Pederson, the Norwegian ambassador in China since 2017, former Norwegian UN ambassador between 2012 and 2017, and UN representative in Lebanon between 2005 and 2008. Due to the mutual reservations between Russian and Western countries, sources close to Guterres proposed Perderson as a compromise, although some Russian sources indicated that he “represents one of the NATO member countries.”
Russian Delegation in Damascus
19 November 2018
The official news agency SANA reported the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as saying during his meeting with Russian envoy Alexander Laverntiev on Friday: “Some countries in the area and many Western countries continue to intervene in the political process and exercise pressure to impose their will on the Syrian people. This hinders reaching any progress… Syria is committed to its right, which is guaranteed by international conventions, to prevent any external party from interfering in its internal affairs.”
Laverntiev had visited Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which coincided with a tour to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey by US envoy to Syria James Jeffery.
Laverntiev briefed Assad on the result of his tour, which included a number of Arab countries before he arrived in Damascus, asserting that “his country is seeking to use this diplomatic activity to exchange views on issues in the region, especially the political process in Syria and completing the battle to eliminate terrorism, in order to restore peace and security and preserve the integrity and independence of Syria,” according to SANA.
Elimination of Eighty-eight Thousand Militants
20 October 2018
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed the death of nearly eighty-eight thousand militants from opposition factions in Syria in the last three years since Moscow intervened in favor of government forces, according to a statement from the Russian defense ministry.
“Throughout the process, more than eighty-seven thousand and five hundred militants were eliminated, in addition to the liberation of one thousand four hundred and eleven towns and more than ninety-five percent of Syrian territory,” the statement reported Shoigu as saying.
“Most of the militants have been liquidated,” added Shoigu.
The London based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that around three hundred and sixty-five thousand people have been killed during the course of the seven-year-war.
Russia intervened in the conflict in September of 2015, providing aerial support for President Bashar al-Assad’s government.
Shoigu said that Russian aerial forces executed more than forty thousand missions, striking around one hundred and twenty thousand “terrorist” infrastructure targets.
“Syrian armed forces now control territories where more than ninety percent of the population live,” said the Russian defense minister.
However, fighting has raged in the east of the country near several villages inhabited by fifteen thousand people, including ISIS militants and their families. They were subject to attacks by Syrian government forces and Kurdish forces, forcing seven thousand civilians to flee.
Dispute on Damascus’s Share
18 October 2018
Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the Valdai Conference in Sochi that Moscow helped government forces in gaining control over ninety-five percent of Syrian territory, which was reiterated by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during his visit to Singapore.
On the other hand, US Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffery said that forty percent of Syria “is not under the control of government forces,” pointing out that Washington allies and Ankara control these areas.
“The Turks agree with our main objectives in Syria, which were clearly laid out by the President (Donald Trump) at the UN National Assembly. That is completely ousting Iran from Syria because it is an accelerant to the whole process. Secondly, de-escalating the military situation in Idlib, where Turks have reached an agreement with the Russians. And revitalizing the political process,” a US statement reported Jeffrey as saying during his visit to Turkey.
“President Trump sent tweets that summarize what we have been telling the Russians and others, which is that any attack in Idlib would be a reckless escalation of the conflict. This is very important because we think that it is time to stop the fighting. There were about three million people – and there are still three million people in Idlib, about half of them are displaced people from other areas in Syria. There is also around fifty to seventy thousand militants. Most of them are part of the opposition we used to work with and the Turks still do. There is also between seven to eight thousand people, or perhaps more, who are named terrorist organizations, essentially Tahrir al-Sham, which is the offshoot of Nusra, which in turn is an offshoot of Qaeda. There are also some elements from ISIS, and others associated with Qaeda,” he added.
“So you have got a very mixed situation there, but it would have been a huge mess if anybody had gone in, and it would have been – meant essentially the end of the armed resistance to the Syrian government. The Turks pushed back,” he went on to say.
“This is a major step because what it has done is it has frozen the conflict not only there, but the conflict is also frozen essentially everywhere else. We have forces in the south and in the northeast continuing operations against ISIS, and the Turks also have positions north of Idlib in Afrin and in al-Bab area. So essentially forty percent of the country is not under the government’s control, and we are talking with the Turks on how we can now shift to, again, the President’s words, revitalizing the political process,” Jeffrey added.
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | أكتوبر 3, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Third Anniversary of “Russian Syria”
30 September 2018
On Sunday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said that more than eighteen thousand people, half of which are civilians, were killed in Russian airstrikes in Syria since Moscow started its military intervention three years ago.
Russia, a strong ally for President Bashar al-Assad’s government, started launching airstrikes in Syria on 30 September 2015, four years after the onset of the destructive conflict in the country.
Since then, eighteen thousand and ninety-six people have been killed, including seven thousand nine hundred and eighty-eight civilians or about half of the death total, according to the SOHR.
Five thousand two hundred and thirty-three ISIS militants have also been killed in these airstrikes, while the remaining number belongs to other Islamist and Jihadist factions, according to the SOHR.
Human rights groups and western governments have criticized the Russian airstrikes, saying that the bombardment has been indiscriminate and targeted civilian infrastructure, including hospitals.
The White Helmets, the Syrian civil defense in opposition areas, said in a report on Sunday that they have carried out dozens of rescue operations in bombarded building since 2015. They mentioned Russian airstrikes on nineteen schools, twelve open markets, and twenty medical facilities in the last three years, in addition to twenty-one of their rescue centers.
A US Invitation for France to Syria
30 September 2018
US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis heads to Paris on Tuesday to discuss the issue of fighting terrorism and French presence in Syria with President Emmanuel Macron and Minister of Armed Forces Florence Parly.
During the one-day visit, the first after taking office in 2017, Mattis will thank “France and congratulate it on its fighting terrorism campaigns, which are going on pretty well in west Africa and the East,” said Pentagon Spokesman Erik Pahon on Sunday.
While the Syrian government is asking US, Turkish, and French forces to leave Syria “immediately”, Washington hopes that Paris will keep special forces in the north of the country controlled by Syrian Democratic Forces, allies with the anti-jihadist international coalition.
“We will stay in Syria as long as necessary” so that the jihadists cannot re-locate there, the spokesman said. “The coalition will stay in Syria and it is the coalition that will decide whether France, Germany or another country will stay there,” he said. “But France is one of the few member countries of the coalition to assist us in Syria. We hope that it will stay there.”
France is taking part in the battles against ISIS in Iraq and Syria along with the US-led international coalition, which includes fighter jets, artillery, and special forces advising Kurdish fighters.
No figures were given on these special forces, whose presence on the ground is rarely recognized by French authorities. But last April, Mattis revealed that “the French have reinforced us in Syria with special forces in the last two weeks.”
On Saturday, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem demanded the departure of the French, US, and Turkish troops from Syria, denouncing “the illegitimate international coalition led by the United States,” deployed in Syria “under the pretext of fighting terrorism.”
After Paris, Mattis will head for Brussels to participate in a ministerial meeting of NATO on Wednesday and Thursday.
James Jeffery, the US Special Representative for Syria Engagement, said that the United States would maintain a presence in Syria as long as Iran is present there, however, he said that the United States’ role would not necessarily involve boots on the ground.
Jeffery was clarifying a recent comment by a senior official who appeared to suggest that troops would stay indefinitely to counter Iran.
Such an objective would drastically alter the mission in Syria first authorized by President Barack Obama, who set a goal of defeating ISIS, which also considers Iran a foe.
“Boots on the ground have the current mission of the enduring defeat of ISIS,” Jeffery said.
“Changing Assad … Through the Constitution”
28 September 2018
The Small Group on Syria, which includes the United States, France, Britain, Germany, Saudi Arabi, Egypt, and Jordan, called on UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura to urgently set up the first meeting of the committee commissioned with drafting the constitution in order to hold elections in the country.
In a joint statement, the ministers stressed that “there is no military solution for the war,” saying that there is “no option other than the political solution.”
They warned that “those who seek a military solution will only succeed in increasing the risk of a dangerous escalation and wider conflagration of the crisis to the region and beyond.”
In an interview with Asharq al-Awsat, the new US envoy to Syria James Jeffery said that his country’s goal was not to remove Assad. “We will be happy if he leaves and declares his departure voluntarily. But this is not our goal. Our goal is a different Syria that does not threaten its people or neighbors, does not use chemical weapons, does not expel refugees and displace people from its territory, and does not provide Iran with a platform to launch rockets against Israel. Our goals include holding those who committed war crimes accountable. Assad’s fate is something that Syrians will decide. If Assad is able to lead Syria in this direction then this a matter that Syrians should consider,” he said.
“Nouri al-Maliki (former Iraqi Prime Minister) was removed from office through the constitution because he could not prevent ISIS from taking control of areas in Iraq. No country in the Middle East had removed a leader because he did not meet the expectations of his people… I was present when the Iraqi constitution was drafted, and I was skeptical; but the Iraqis believed in the constitution, and I do not know what prevents Syria from moving in this direction,” the US envoy added.
The Heavy Weaponry in Idlib
1 October 2018
There have been conflicting reports on Syrian opposition factions withdrawing their heavy arms from the “demilitarized zone” in northern Syria as per the agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi on 17 September.
“There have been no withdrawals of heavy weapons from any area or any front. This report is denied, completely denied,” said Naji Mustafa the spokesman for the National Front for Liberation (NLF), after the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported the day before on the first withdrawal of heavy weaponry by al-Sham Corps.
The Russian-Turkish agreement, which was reached in the Russian city of Sochi, provides for the establishment of a fifteen to twenty kilometer demilitarized zone between the frontlines of government forces and opposition factions on the outskirts of Idlib and parts of the adjacent governorates, specifically in the northern countryside of Hama, the western countryside of Aleppo, and the northern countryside of Lattakia.
The agreement, which spared the last opposition stronghold an all-out offensive by Damascus, stipulates that all factions in the buffer zone must hand in their heavy weapons by 10 October and radical groups must withdraw by 15 October, while Turkish forces and Russian military police would be deployed in the area.
Al-Izza Army, a Syrian opposition faction active in the northern countryside of Hama, announced its rejection of the agreement in a statement, the first public rejection by a non-radical organization. This comes after the National Front for Liberation, a coalition of opposition factions that includes Ahrar al-Sham, welcomed the agreement last week, affirming its distrust of the Russian side.
There has been no official public position from Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra), which controls more than half of Idlib and had previously said that it refuses to negotiate its weapons. However, it held intensive internal talks on Sunday to take a final decision regarding the agreement, according to the SOHR.
The Guardians of Religion organization expressed its refusal of “these conspiracies and all these steps,” in a statement circulated on social media last week.
Disputes Surrounding the Interpretation of Idlib
29 September 2018
Four points of dispute have emerged regarding the interpretation of the Sochi agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Idlib.
The agreement provided for a demilitarized zone in opposition areas, north of Syria and not between front lines between government and opposition forces. It also included a timetable to withdraw heavy arms by 10 October and “getting rid of fanatics” by 15 October. Sources said that Moscow has informed Tehran, Damascus, and Ankara that “in case the dates were not fully implemented, military operations and airstrikes against Idlib would be launched immediately.”
According to the sources, the first dispute revolves around the depth of the demilitarized zone, between fifteen and twenty kilometers. Moscow is seeking to include Idlib and other major cities in this zone, but Ankara refuses. The second dispute is related to the Aleppo-Lattakia road and Aleppo-Hama road. Russia wants to see Damascus control these two roads before the end of the year, while Ankara insists that they be monitored by Russia and Turkey.
The third dispute is over the fate of the fanatics, as Ankara wants to see them transferred to Kurdish areas while Moscow insists on “terminating foreign fighters”. The two sides also disagree on the range of the Sochi agreement. Sources said that “Moscow wants a temporary agreement similar to the ones implemented in the de-escalation areas of Daraa, Ghouta, and Homs, while Ankara wants to have it permanent, similar to the one implemented in the areas of the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch operations.
Opening of Nassib Border Crossing is Postponed
29 September 2018
Reuters
Official Syrian media said on Saturday that Nassib border crossing with Jordan will be reopened on 10 October, three years after the trade route was closed by opposition fighters. A previous statement from the Ministry of Transportation had announced that the movement of trucks and goods through the crossing had already been restored. However, the Jordanian government denied that, saying that “the two sides are still studying the reopening of the border.”
Following the denial by Amman, Syrian state media ran a new statement by the transportation ministry saying that “logistic preparations to reopen the crossing are now complete, so that the Nassib border crossing with Jordan will reopen on the tenth of October and start receiving truck and transit traffic.” The crossing is considered a vital economic artery for Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon.
S-300 and the Iranian Presence!
27-29 September 2018
Reuters
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Friday that the delivery of the S-300 missile defense system to Syria had already begun, and warned Western powers of attempting to undermine UN-led efforts to end the seven-year conflict.
Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on Monday the system would be delivered to Syria in two weeks despite strong Israeli and US objections. A week prior, Moscow accused Israel of indirectly causing the downing of a Russian military jet in Syria.
Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Supreme National Security Council in Iran, said Israel will be sorry if it continues to attack the Syrian army and its allies. Shamkhani made the comments during a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev, in Tehran.
On Tuesday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would continue its military operations in Syria, after Russia announced it would supply an advanced anti-aircraft system to its Syrian ally. “We will continue to act to prevent Iranian military entrenchment in Syria and we will continue the military coordination between the Israel Defense Forces and the Russian army,” said Netanyahu.
The White House said it hoped Russia would reconsider the move, which US National Security Adviser John Bolton called a “significant escalation” of Syria’s seven-year war. Bolton said a political process was needed to end Syria’s war but that Russia’s plans with the S-300 made that difficult. He said US troops would stay in Syria. “We are not going to leave as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders, and that includes Iranian proxies and militias.”
Dispute Surrounding the Endowments
30 September 2018
Decree Number 16 of 20 September 2018 regarding the work of the ministry of endowments has stirred a lot of controversy because it was issued before its draft was distributed and discussed transparently. The most important thing is that it expands the powers of the ministry and the minister, including restricting the term of mufti to three years instead of for life, based on a proposal by the minister of endowments. There are other controversial issues as well such as the formation of a religious youth group.
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | سبتمبر 25, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Idlib: The “Jihad” is in the Details
Analysis from Salon Syria
24 September 2018
The Russian-Turkish agreement on Idlib has serious challenges and complexities in its implementation, although it does have some positive aspects. This leads to the belief that the Sochi agreement will only help in stabilizing the situation in Idlib for a few months because it merely postpones the battle and does not prevent it.
The agreement, made public after a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi on 17 September, is comprised of ten points, including: keeping the de-escalation zone according to the May Astana agreement, fortifying the twelve Turkish observation posts, a fifteen to twenty kilometers demilitarized zone, and the ousting of all terrorist groups in this zone by 15 October, after the withdrawal of heavy weapons before 10 October.
It also stipulates that the Russian and Turkish armies will conduct joint patrols in the safe zone, in addition to “guaranteeing the free movement of local residents and goods, and restoring commercial and economic ties,” and the opening of Aleppo-Lattakia and Aleppo-Hama roads before the end of the year.
However, it also contains numerous ambiguous points, which leads to the belief that “the devil is in the details”:
1- The manner by which the fanatics would be “ousted”, especially that this has to be done in two to three weeks. Will this be carried out through “segregation”, “displacement”, or through “military action” and who will actually do this?
2- Difficulty in separating between Tahrir al-Sham, which includes Fat’h al-Sham (previously Nusra) and includes ten thousand members, and the National Front for Liberation which includes thirty thousand members. Add to that the fact that Tahrir al-Sham refused the agreement and criticized Turkey, likening Ankara’s position in Idlib to that of the UN in Srebrenica, which suffered a massacre in the nineties of the previous century. There is also difficulty in separating foreign fighters affiliated with al-Qaeda, who number more than two thousand, from the rest of Syrian fighters.
3- One of the circulating ideas is to move those who refuse the settlement from the “safe zone” to Turkish-controlled areas in northern Syria and the possibility of moving others to Kurdish-majority areas. But, how will this be carried out in such a short time?
4- The plan includes the opening of the major roads between Aleppo and Hama and between Aleppo and Lattakia. Who will protect these roads? Who will deploy observation points? This also applies for “commercial” points between opposition areas in Idlib and government areas.
5- Syrian sovereignty will symbolically return to the north, including the flag and some institutions. But what about the military presence of Damascus?
6- Some people believe that the Russian and Turkish armies along with the armies of other countries will launch an offensive against fanatics who refuse the settlement, especially because Moscow has a plan to eliminate two thousand foreign fighters. How would this be reflected in the position of the rest of the opposition factions? What would the Islamic factions’ response be?
The Russian and Turkish armies continue their consultations and exchange of security information. Turkey has also sent military reinforcements and special units to the twelve observation points in northern Syria, in addition to the possibility of carrying out covert assassinations.
Implementing the agreement constitutes a difficult test for Moscow and Ankara. At the same time, Damascus and Tehran are betting on the failure of the settlement option in order to resume the military option and drag Moscow into a military resolution similar to what happened in previous places… and the return to the postponed battle of Idlib.
“This is not a peace deal. It is an aversion of a whole-scale-war deal,” the head of the United Nations Humanitarian Taskforce for Syria Jan Egeland said in Geneva. “I see a great potential for a lot of fighting … We are concerned for the civilians in these areas, so it is not over,” he added.
International Legitimacy for the Sochi Deal
21 September 2018
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that Turkey asked France to “support” the Russian-Turkish agreement on Idlib in the UN Security Council, according to an interview with Le Monde newspaper published on Saturday.
Le Drian said that the international pressure and warning of a looming humanitarian crisis in Idlib had proven effective.
He stressed the role played by France, especially after the failure of the Astana-sponsoring countries in reaching an agreement in Tehran. He referred to “Turkey’s request for France to act in the Security Council to support the agreement (reached by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan) with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Idlib.”
After a summit at the Sochi resort on Monday, the Russian and Turkish presidents announced a deal to establish a “demilitarized zone” in Idlib on 15 October, averting an offensive by the Syrian government on Idlib governorate, which is populated by more than three million people.
In recent weeks, the Syrian government brought in reinforcements to the outskirts of Idlib, which borders Turkey. Dozens of civilians were killed as a result of bombardment by Syrian forces and airstrikes by Russian planes, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
The UN and human rights groups warned that the Syrian government offensive would cause a “blood bath” in Idlib and “the worst humanitarian crisis” in the current century.
The Turkish-Russian agreement could be adopted “through a resolution or a statement by the Security Council,” a French diplomatic source said, adding that the issue is still under discussion in New York.
The United Nations will hold its seventy-third general assembly in New York next week. The issue of Idlib is expected to dominate the discussions.
Al-Assad Between Two Cables of Condolences
19 September 2018
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sent a cable of condolence to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin two days after the downing of a Russian plane in the Mediterranean, however, he sent a cable of condolence to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani only two hours after an armed attack in Ahwaz, Iran.
“On behalf of the Syrian people and by my name, we express our deep condolences to the friendly Russian people over the fall of the Russian military jet on the Mediterranean, causing the martyrdom of the Russian heroes who were doing their noble duties along with their colleagues of the Russian military forces in the fight against terrorism in Syria,” the President said in the first cable published by the Syrian news agency SANA.
“This regrettable incident was a result of the Israeli usual revelry which always uses the dirtiest means to achieve its low purposes and carry out its aggression in our region,” Assad added.
“We are completely confident that such a tragic event will not dissuade you or us in continuing the fight against terrorism,” Assad said.
Syrian air defense systems brought down a Russian military plane carrying fifteen Russian personnel during the course of responding to Israeli bombing on the coastal city of Lattakia on Monday.
On 22 September, the cable for the Iranian president said: “I extend to you and the friendly people of Iran, on the behalf of the people of the Syrian Arab Republic and on my own behalf, deepest condolences for the innocent victims, and condemn in the strongest terms this cowardly and criminal terrorist act.”
Assad praised Iran’s position “against terrorism in Syria and expressed his hope that “supporters, financers, and proponents of terrorism will understand that this danger threatens mankind as a whole, urging them to reconsider their positions.”
The attack, which was adopted by ISIS and an Ahwazi-Arab group, targeted a military parade in the city of Ahwaz in southwest of Iran, left twenty-nine dead and more than fifty injured, according to an official tally. The attack came on the national day for armed forces, which is celebrated on 22 September in memory of the day Baghdad declared war on Tehran (1980-1988).
“Media War” Between Russia and Israel
24 September 2018
The Israeli army refused the conclusions of the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding the downing of a Russian plane west of Syria, in what resembles a “media war” between Moscow and Tel Aviv.
The Russian army said that “misleading” information from the Israeli air force caused the downing of the Russian plane in Syria, denouncing the “adventurism” of Israeli pilots.
Russian military spokesman Igor Konashenkov presented the findings of the investigation in the downing of the Ilyushin-20 plane that was carrying fifteen soldiers by a Syrian air defense missile which was accidentally fired on 17 September.
Moscow accused Israeli pilots of using the bigger Ilyushin as a cover, resulting in Syria’s Soviet-era S-200 air defense system interpreting the Russian plane as a target.
Israel denied this version of events and its air force commander flew to Moscow to clarify the situation.
An Israeli military official confirmed on Friday that operational procedures agreed to with Russia in Syria are still in place after the death of fifteen Russian soldiers whose plane was shot down on Monday, hinting that Israel maintains the freedom to move in neighboring countries.
An Israeli delegation led by the air force chief General Amikam Norkin visited Moscow on Thursday in an attempt to calm down the situation and clarify the circumstances of how Syrian air defense mistakenly brought down a Russian military plane when Syrian forces were responding to an Israeli airstrike.
An army statement said that the “two sides stressed the importance of national interests and the continued implementation of the de-confliction system.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he dispatched General Norkin to Moscow to “preserve the cooperation between our two countries,” among other things.
Russian Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that Syrian air defense shot down an IL-20 Russian plane on Monday as it was flying over the Mediterranean, thirty-five kilometers from the Syrian coast, on its way back to Hmeimeim base in Lattakia governorate.
The Israeli army said in a statement that General Norkin presented “the situation report for that night … from all aspects.”
The Russian Defense Ministry initially accused Israeli fighters of “using the Russian plane as a cover, thus putting it in the line of fire of Syrian air defense.”
However, Israel denies this, and its army affirmed that the Russian plane was far from Syrian positions targeted by the Israeli airstrike. It added that “when the Syrian army fired the missiles that hit the plane, Israeli jets had already returned to Israeli airspace.”
Putin sought to defuse the situation, saying in a Kremlin statement that the “matter is most likely a chain of tragic and accidental circumstances.” He urged the Israeli side not to allow such incidents to occur once more.
However, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad pointed accusations at Israel on Wednesday and said in a cable of condolence to Putin that “this regrettable incident was a result of the Israeli usual revelry.”
Russia is considered the most prominent Assad ally, and has been offering broad diplomatic, political, and economic support to him since the onset of the conflict in 2011. Its military intervention, which started three years ago, has also contributed to Damascus regaining the lead on various fronts.
In a rare move, the Israeli army acknowledged it had conducted the airstrike, and confirmed targeting a facility for the Syrian army that delivered systems used in manufacturing precise weapons to Lebanese Hezbollah.
Hezbollah responded through its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah who said in a televised speech on Wednesday night: “it is not true that what is being bombed in Syria is meant to be transported to Hezbollah in Lebanon,” accusing Israel of “lying” and “working on preventing Syria from acquiring missile capabilities.”
Israel acknowledged this month that it conducted two hundred airstrikes in Syria in the last eighteen months against mostly Iranian targets, in an unusual confirmation of such military operations. Since the onset of the conflict in Syria in 2011, Israel has repeatedly bombed Syrian army targets and others for Iran and Hezbollah.
“There has been no change in the non-engagement mechanism (between Israel and Russia) after this unfortunate incident. The non-engagement mechanism and operational procedures remain the same and have not changed,” an Israeli official said. “Non-engagement” refers to the exchange of information between the two countries and reducing the possibility of confrontations.
This mechanism between Israel and Russia was adopted in 2015 after Russian forces intervened in favor of Syrian forces in order to avoid a confrontation between the Russian and Israeli armies in Syria.
However, this coordination witnessed the most serious incident as of yet when Syrian air defense mistakenly hit a Russian reconnaissance plane in response to an Israeli airstrike on a military facility, which led to the death of the fifteen-member crew.
Hezbollah Will Stay “Until Further Notice”
19 September 2018
On Wednesday, Secretary General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah confirmed that his fighters will stay in Syria until further notice, despite the calmness on the fronts after reaching the Russian-Turkish agreement on Idlib, the last stronghold of opposition factions. Nasrallah denied what Israel announced regarding its targeting two days earlier of a Syrian army facility during the transportation of missile systems to his party in Lebanon, accusing it of “lying”.
“We will stay there after the settlement in Idlib and calmness in Idlib … we will stay there until further notice,” Nasrallah said in a televised speech in front of thousands of his supporters in the southern suburb of Beirut, his party’s stronghold, on the eve of Ashura commemoration.
“The calmness on the fronts and the decline of threats will, of course, affect the current number (of fighters),” he said, adding that the increase or decrease of the number is associated with “the responsibilities and the scope of threats and challenges.”
The Iranian-backed Hezbollah has been publicly fighting alongside the Syrian army since 2013. Its intervention has helped in resolving numerous battles in Damascus’s favor. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimated the number of Hezbollah deaths in Syria at one thousand six hundred and sixty-five.
Nasrallah’s remarks come two days after a Russian-Turkish agreement to establish a “demilitarized” zone in Idlib governorate, northwest of Syria, in a step that would spare this area from a large-scale offensive. “What happened is a step towards the possibility of a political solution, and this is a good and acceptable thing; and depends on the results and strict implementation of the terms of the agreement,” Nasrallah said.
“Based on the settlement in Idlib, if things go well and are implemented in a suitable manner, we can assume that Syria is going towards great calm, and there will be no effective fighting fronts,” he added.
Syrian government forces, backed by their allies, have regained control of vast areas in the last two years. They now control about two thirds of the country.
On the other hand, Nasrallah accused Israel of “working on preventing Syria from acquiring missile capabilities,” after the bombing of the coastal city of Lattakia on Monday night.
“It is not true that what is being bombed in Syria is meant to be transported to Hezbollah in Lebanon,” he said replying to the Israeli army’s declaration that it targeted a facility for the Syrian army that was delivering systems used in manufacturing precise weapons to Lebanese Hezbollah.
During its response to the Israeli airstrike, Syrian air defense systems shot down a Russian plane near Lattakia, according to Moscow, resulting in the deaths of “fifteen Russian personnel.”
Nasrallah acknowledged in his speech on Wednesday that Israeli airstrikes “in some place were related to the transportation of weapons.” However, he said that “many” of them “were not related to this issue at all,” affirming that Israel is “preventing the establishment of the Syrian army as a true military force” in Syria.
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | أغسطس 28, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
“Crisis” and “Chemical Weapons” in Idlib?
24 August 2018
There are indirect indications that the United States, along with its allies, is preparing for a new aggression against Syria, said Spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense Igor Konashenkov.
A US destroyer ship arrived at the Persian Gulf, while US B-1B bombers are getting ready to move from the US base in Qatar to hit targets in Syria, the spokesman said according to Sputnik news agency. He noted that the USS Sulivans destroyer is armed with fifty-six cruise missiles, and the strategic bomb carrier B-1B is ready to move from al-Udeid Base in Qatar armed with twenty-four air-to-surface missiles.
On Friday, Turkey warned Moscow, which militarily supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government, of a potential “crisis” in Syria in case of resorting to a “military solution” in Idlib, the last stronghold of opposition factions and jihadist in the country.
The Syrian government’s offensive to take back the province of Idlib, which borders Turkey, seems imminent. However, Damascus is unlikely to launch an offensive without a greenlight from Ankara, which supports opposition factions.
In recent weeks, the Russian-Turkish relationship witnessed increased coordination, and a Turkish delegation visited Moscow on Friday.
“The military solution will lead to a crisis not just in Idlib, but for Syria’s future as well. The battle could last for a long time and may reach civilians,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said during a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart in Moscow.
The Syrian government is completing preparations to take back Idlib in north-west of Syria.
“However, it is very important that the radical and terrorist groups become incapable of posing a threat. It is a very important matter for Turkey as well because they are present at the other side of our border. They are primarily a threat to us,” said Cavusoglu.
Idlib governorate is strategically important because of its location on the border with Turkey, which provides support for opposition factions, and its proximity to Lattakia governorate, which is the stronghold of the Alawite sect to which the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad belongs.
Idlib is within the “de-escalation zones” that were setup at the end of peace negotiations that took place in Astana, under Russian, Turkish, and Iranian sponsorship.
Idlib has been the destination for tens of thousands of militants who refused settlement agreements with the government.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov acknowledged that the situation in Idlib is “very difficult,” and added, “when we setup the de-escalation zone in Idlib, nobody proposed using it for militants, especially those affiliated with Nusra Front, to hide behind the civilian population like a human shield.”
“Especially as they are not just lying low there. Raids come constantly from there and firing on positions of the Syrian army,” Lavrov said. He confirmed that Russian forces have downed around fifty drones that were launched from that area and targeted Hmeimeim airbase.
In an interview with Russian media in July, the Syrian president affirmed that the current priority for the government is to retake control of Idlib governorate, which is mostly out of his control. “Our objective now is Idlib, although it is not the only objective,” Assad said during the interview.
On 9 August, government forces dropped leaflets over Idlib calling for joining the “reconciliation” agreements.
Analysts say that the Syrian government is incapable of making any moves in Idlib without getting a greenlight from Turkey, which has established observation points in the governorate and deployed forces there.
Russian President Vladimir Putin received the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and the Defense Minister Hakan Fidan and noted “increasing close” cooperation with Turkey in solving “thorny” issues, such as the Syrian crisis.
“Thanks to the efforts of both of our countries and the participation of other concerned countries, especially Iran […], we have succeeded in accomplishing evident progress towards solving the Syrian crisis,” said Putin.
Al-Jolani Between Idlib and Lattakia
22 August 2018
On Tuesday, the general commander of Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra) Abu Mohammed al-Jolani warned factions in Idlib against negotiating with the Syrian government and entering settlements agreement, as has happened in other areas.
Jolani’s statement came at a time when all eyes are fixed to Idlib with the military preparations taken by government forces to launch an attack against the last stronghold for both the opposition factions and Tahrir al-Sham.
Jolani said in a video posted on Telegram: “This phase requires us factions to pledge that the revolution’s arms […] are a red line on which concessions are unacceptable. They will never be put on the negotiating table.”
“The instant someone considers negotiating their arms, they will lose them indeed. Just thinking about surrendering to the enemy and handing over weapons is treason,” he said.
Tahir al-Sham controls the majority of Idlib, while Islamic factions affiliated with the National Front for Liberation, including Ahrar al-Sham, are present in the rest of the region. Government forces are deployed in the southeast countryside.
Jolani stressed that settlement agreements, which took place in various areas of Syria where opposition factions had control, the last of which was in Daraa and Qonaiterah in southern Syria, will not happen again in Idlib. “The honorable people of the north will not allow what happened in the south to pass in the north,” he said.
Tahrir al-Sham and other factions have carried out house raids in recent days, arresting dozens of people on charges of communicating with the government to reach a settlement agreement, which usually provide for the entry of government forces and factions handing over their weapons.
“Our people need to realize that the Turkish observation posts in the north cannot be relied upon to face the enemy. Do not be fooled by promises or media statements. Political stances can change in an instant,” said Jolani.
Russia asked Ankara to find a solution to put an end to the presence of Tahrir al-Sham, which is seen as a “terrorist” organization, in order to avoid a large-scale operation in Idlib. Analysts say that Turkey is working on unifying the ranks of the factions for any confrontation with Tahrir al-Sham.
Drones over Hmeimeim
24 August 2018
There has been an increase in the number of drone attacks launched by fighting factions against Hmeimeim base in western Syria. These attacks do not pose serious threats according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) and Russian officials who said that Moscow fortified the base with a new missile system.
Since the onset of its military intervention in Syria in 2015, Russia has used Hmeimeim base as the headquarters for its forces in the coastal governorate of Lattakia, which was spared from the fierce battle since the start of the conflict in 2011. Some fighting factions are present in limited parts of its northern countryside bordering Idlib.
“The number of drone attacks targeting Hmeimeim base has increased in the last two months,” said SOHR, noting that there were twenty-three attacks since the beginning of this year, including five in August and thirteen in July.
“Russian and Syrian air defenses downed most of the planes” launched by Islamic factions and jihadist groups in Idlib, according to SOHR.
“Russians are convinced that the drones targeting their airbase in Lattakia (Hmeimeim) are launched from around Jisr al-Shoghour,” said International Crisis Group researcher Sam Heller at an earlier time.
The Spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova accused “terrorists”, referring to factions in Idlib, of targeting Hmeimeim base.
In mid-August, the spokesman for the Russian army Igor Konshankov confirmed by stating that “last month, we witnessed an increase in drone attack attempts,” and stressed that one hundred per cent of them were downed.
The United States is there to Stay!
23 August 2018
The issue of formal and informal Iranian forces leaving Syria has become a main component of US policy in dealing with the Syrian issue. Washington is holding several cards to pressure Moscow in order to reach this objective.
Western diplomatic sources told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper yesterday that President Donald Trump’s administration has decided to keep its soldiers in north-eastern Syria and the no-fly zone, which the international coalition set up to fight ISIS. This will be used, along with the financing the reconstruction of Syria and the return of refugees “cards”, to exercise pressure on Russia to oust Iran.
This was one of the issues that US National Security Advisor John Bolton discussed with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev in Geneva on Thursday. Bolton said that his counterpart proposed abolishing sanctions on Iranian oil in exchange for restraining Iran in Syria. “This is a proposal we have refused again today,” he said.
Bolton also said that he cautioned Patrushev against interfering in the November mid-term congressional elections. This prevented an agreement on a joint statement, which the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo later tried to reach. However, they agreed on restoring communications between the defense departments in the two countries.
Back to Geneva
23 August 2018
On Friday, a UN spokeswoman said that the special envoy will meet representatives from Iran, Russia, and Turkey on 11 & 12 September in Geneva to discuss a new constitution in Syria.
UN Special Envoy Staffan De Mistura is charged with forming a committee whose task will be to draft a new constitution for the war-torn country. The main foreign sponsors for this project are Damascus, Russia, and Iran, in addition to Turkey, which provides support for a number of opposition factions.
Representatives from the three countries will meet De Mistura in Geneva for two days. The latter said that he hopes the constitutional committee will be ready before the UN General Assembly in New York late September.
This may require more talks, especially with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government, however, Vellucci did not have any information about further meetings next month.
Previous efforts by De Mistura to stop the Syrian conflict have not yielded any significant results.
Britain is Leaving the Opposition
20 August 2018
The British government said that it was ending funding for some aid programs in areas controlled by opposition militants in Syria.
“As the situation on the ground in some regions has become increasingly difficult, we have reduced support for some of our non-humanitarian programming but continue to deliver vital support to help those most in need and to improve security and stability in the country,” a British government spokeswoman told Reuters.
The Times newspaper earlier said that an attempt to form an independent police force would be scrapped next month, while projects funding local councils were being reviewed and would likely be halted by the end of the financial year.
The report added that the Foreign Office and Department for International Development had determined the aid programs in the northwestern parts of Syria to be “unsustainable”.
The British government said it has spent one hundred and fifty-two million pounds (around one hundred and ninety-four million US dollars) on humanitarian programs in Syria for the 2017-2018 financial year.
Britain increased its aid, as well as its supply of armored vehicles and training to Syria’s opposition in 2018.
In 2011, the United States adopted a policy that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must leave power. However, Washington and its Western allies, including Britain, changed their positions after they watched Syrian government forces, backed by Iran and Russia, take back territory it had previously lost.
A Tripartite “Red Line”
21 August 2018
The United States, France, and Britain threatened to respond if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad uses chemical weapons in any attacks to regain control of Idlib governorate.
In a joint statement, the three countries expressed their “grave concern” at a military offensive in Idlib and the humanitarian consequences that would result from it.
“We underlined our concern at the potential for further — and illegal — use of chemical weapons,” the three countries said in the statement. “We remain resolved to act if the Assad regime uses chemical weapons again,” the statement said.
The three major powers in the UN Security Council issued this statement on the eve of the fifth anniversary of a Sarine gas attack in Ghouta that left more than three hundred people dead.
This attack, which the West blamed Assad forces for, led to a US-Russian agreement to eliminate Damascus’s chemical stockpile and the means to produce these lethal substances.
The United States, France, and Britain launched airstrikes on targets in Syria as a response to a chemical attack in the town of Douma in Ghouta that left a big number of victims.
The UN Security Council is scheduled to discuss the humanitarian issue in Syria next week.
Russia “Stuck”?
22 August 2018
US National Security Advisor John Bolton said that Russia is “stuck” in Syria and looking for others to fund post-war reconstruction there, describing this as an opportunity for Washington to press for the withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria.
After US President Donald Trump took office, the United States is seeking to disengage from Syria, where the previous administration deployed some forces and gave limited support to Kurdish opposition forces, despite the objections of its NATO partner, Turkey.
Bolton sidestepped a question on whether these measures would continue, saying that the United States’ presence is based on objectives. “Our interests in Syria are to finish the destruction of ISIS and deal with the continuing threat of ISIS terrorism and to worry about the presence of Iranian militias and regular forces,” he said in an interview.
Bolton said that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who met Trump in Helsinki on 16 July, told the United States that Moscow cannot force the Iranians to leave Syria. “But he also told us that his interest and Iran’s were not exactly the same. So we are obviously going to talk to him about what role they can play … We are going see what we and others can agree in terms of resolving the conflict in Syria. But the one prerequisite there is the withdrawal of all Iranian forces back in Iran,” said Bolton.
Washington wields leverage in its talks with Moscow because “the Russians are stuck there at the moment,” he added.
“And I do not think they want to be stuck there. I think their frenetic diplomatic activity in Europe indicates that they would like to find somebody else, for example, to bear the cost of reconstructing Syria – which they may or may not succeed in doing.”
Sixty-three Thousand Russians Fought in Syria
22 August 2018
The Russian Defense Ministry said that Russia sent more than sixty-three thousand soldiers to Syria as part of its engagement in the conflict.
A total of 63,012 Russian soldiers “received combat experience” in Syria, the ministry said in a video about Russia’s campaign to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government.
This number includes 25,738 officers, four hundred and thirty-four generals, and 4,329 specialists in artillery and rockets, according to the ministry.
In late 2017, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said that more than forty-eight thousand Russian soldiers participated in the Syrian campaign.
Last December, President Vladimir Putin ordered his armed forces to pull the bulk of troops out of Syria. However, he later clarified that the army will stay in Syria “as long as it is beneficial” and he was not planning to withdraw yet.
On Wednesday, the ministry said that the Russian air force conducted more than thirty-nine thousand sorties which killed “more than eighty-six thousand militants” and destroyed 121,466 “terrorist targets”.
It said its forces tested two hundred and thirty-one types of modern weaponry in Syria, including aircraft, surface-to-air systems, cruise missiles, and others.
The video did not mention any Russian civilian or military casualties.
