بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | أغسطس 22, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Potential Crisis in Idlib
Enab Baladi
During her meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angel Merkel called for avoiding a humanitarian crisis in northern Syria. “Avoiding a humanitarian crisis in Idlib, Syria and surrounding areas is a crucial matter,” AFP reported Merkel as saying during the meeting with Putin in Berlin on Saturday, 18 August. Merkel stressed that both Germany and Russia bear the responsibility of finding a solution to stop the fighting in Syria. She said that she discussed the issues of constitutional reforms and potential elections with Putin in their previous meeting in Sochi last May. On his part, Putin reiterated his call for EU countries to support reconstruction projects in Syria, citing millions of refugees distributed in EU countries, Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, and stressed the need for them to go back to their country. (Enab Baladi)
There are many reports indicating that the battle for Idlib will take place soon. The Operation Room for the Southern Countryside of Aleppo (ORSCA) declared several villages in the southern countryside of Aleppo as a “military zone” and asked residents to evacuate. In a statement on Thursday, 16 August, ORSCA said the zone included villages near or on the frontlines with the Syrian government; they include: Jazraya, Zammar, al-Othmanieh, Jdaidet Talafeh, Hweir al-I’eis, Tal Bajer, Baness, and Birneh. The statement called on residents to evacuate the aforementioned villages and take all necessary measures within forty-eight hours for the “sake of their lives.” (Enab Baladi)
United States is Financing Stability Through Allies
17 August 2018
Reuters
US President Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to cut down on foreign aid, including that allocated to reinforcing stability in areas no longer under ISIS control. On the other hand, the US is encouraging allies to increase financing for reinforcing stability. On Friday, the US administration said that it has secured three hundred million dollars from its partners in the coalition, which would be used towards stabilizing the country, including one hundred million dollars pledged by Saudi Arabia. The Emirates also pledged to offer fifty million dollars in new funding. Australia, Denmark, the European Union, Taiwan, Kuwait, Germany, and France all also pledged to offer money.
Senior Advisor to Secretary of State David Satterfield said that there will be no international funding for the reconstruction of Syria until a “credible and irreversible” political process starts to end the Syrian conflict. “There will be no aid for Syria through international agreement unless the UN confirms that a credible and irreversible political process has started.” (Reuters)
Russia and Returning the Refugees
14 & 17 August 2018
Reuters
Due to Russia’s interest in the issue of returning Syrian refugees, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday that the West’s position on Syrian refugees surprised Moscow and that the conditions were suitable for the refugees to return to their homes. Lavrov spoke after holding talks with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. In a related context, Russian news agency TASS reported the ministry of defense as saying that Minister Sergey Shoygu discussed the issue of the return of Syrian refugees to their country with his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar during their talks in Moscow on Friday. (Reuters)
On Monday, Russian foreign ministry said that a four-way summit between the leaders of Russia, France, Turkey, and Germany is “scheduled for the near future.”
De Mistura and Reconstruction
16 August 2018
Enab Baladi
UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan De Mistura affirmed the need to prioritize a political solution over reconstruction projects in Syria during his meeting with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. De Mistura and Pompeo discussed the need to find a political solution in Syria for all sides and to avoid a humanitarian crisis in Idlib, State of Department Spokeswoman Heather Nauert said on Thursday, 16 August. The two sides agreed that any discussion of reconstruction in Syria is “premature,” alluding to the need to work on the political solution process and conduct free and fair elections according to UN Security Council resolutions before exercising pressure to return refugees to their county. Pompeo said that the return of refugees to Syria must be safe and under the umbrella of the UN. De Mistura and Pompeo discussed the progress achieved through the constitutional committee after the opposition and the government named their delegates to the committee. (Enab Baladi)
Iraq Bombs ISIS in Syria
16 August 2018
Reuters
Iraqi planes bombed a gathering of ISIS fighters inside Syria who were planning cross-border attacks border that left a number of ISIS fighters dead, according to a statement from the Iraqi army on Thursday. The planes targeted an “operation room” where ISIS members were meeting. ISIS, which once occupied a third of Iraqi territory, has been largely defeated in Iraq, however, it still poses a threat along its border with Syria. “According to intelligence, those terrorists who were killed were planning criminal operations using suicide vests and intended to target innocents in the next few days inside Iraq,” the military said in a statement. (Reuters)
Kurds in Negotiations
14 August 2018
Reuters
On Tuesday, Head of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) Riadh Darrar said that the SDC visited Damascus the previous week to hold another round of talks with the government. A delegation that includes member from the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls one quarter of Syrian territory, held talks in Damascus this month in the first public meeting. These visits highlight efforts by Kurdish-led authorities to open new channels with the Syrian government, as they seek to negotiate a political agreement that preserves their self-rule inside Syria. Darrar said that the SDC held new talks on decentralization and the constitution. The talks included a proposal from Damascus for the self-rule areas to participate in the local elections that will take place next month, Darrar added. He said that the SDC insists on keeping its structure of governance and self-rule in any future elections and that Syrian officials proposed several matters that are still immature. “We need to agree on service provision first and this could build trust between us.” (Reuters)
Iran Continuing with Its Policies
13 & 15 August 2018
Reuters and Enab Baladi
Iran will not rein in its influence in the Middle East despite mounting US pressure on Tehran to curb its regional activities, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told Qatar’s al-Jazeera television channel. (Reuters)
Iran’s policy in Syria has economic, political, and military aspects. The Ministry of Housing and Public Works in the Syrian government has made deals with Iranian companies on building residential units, including housing projects. An Iranian economic delegation reached an agreement with the ministry of housing on building thirty thousand residential units as part of the General Establishment for Housing’s project, the Iranian news agency IRNA said on Wednesday, 15 August. According to the agreement, the projects will be in Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs and the Iranian private sector will be responsible for the construction works. The two sides agreed on forming a team of Iranian contractors to supervise the work of the Syrian construction sector, according to IRNA, which also said that the Syrian Housing Minister Houssain Arnous promised the Iranian companies to provide necessary conveniences. (Enab Baladi)
Syria Exporting Electricity
13 August 2018
Enab Baladi
Lebanese Finance Minister Ali Hasan Khalil announced his approval to draw electric energy from Syria on 13 August. He said that “Syria offered to give electric energy to Lebanon in reasonable prices. There was a Syrian delegation headed by the minister of energy two weeks ago. They gave us a proposal that is less than the ships or even the power plants, with the possibility of up to three hundred and fifty megawatts.” This announcement comes after the huge losses that the electricity sector in Syria suffered and the immense need for electrical power in the near future. (Enab Baladi)
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | يونيو 26, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Portents of the Battle in the South
18-24 June 2018
Reuters
After the Syrian army’s military reinforcement in recent weeks, military operations on the southern front started, especially in al-Lajat area, and then expanded to include Dara’a city.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has promised to take back opposition controlled areas in southern Syria. On the other hand, Syrian opposition factions in the south pledged to confront any offensive carried out by government forces and their allies.
This is a rerun of the scenario in Aleppo and Ghouta, as Russia refrained from declaring its direct participation in the military operations and then declared its support for the operations carried out by the Syrian army and its allies, especially through airstrikes.
Last week, the United States warned that it would take “strict and proportional” measures in response to government violations in the “de-escalation” zone in south-west of Syria. The US Secretary of State reaffirmed the US commitment to the ceasefire in the south-west area of Syria during his meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister. However, a new development in the US position emerged as Washington informed Syrian opposition factions not to expect military support to help them confront the massive offensive by the Russian-supported government forces to retake areas in southern Syria. (Reuters)
The UN General Secretary called for an immediate end to military escalation in the south-west of Syria, his spokesman said on Friday, after government forces ramped up their attacks on areas controlled by opposition forces this week. The spokesman referred to the displacement of thousands of civilians and their movement towards the Jordanian border, and stressed that these attacks pose significant risks to regional security. (Reuters) In a statement on Thursday, the UN expressed its grave concern regarding escalations in fighting which led to the death of tens of people and the displacement of thousands. It is estimated that there are seven hundred and fifty thousand civilians in south-west of Syria. (Reuters)
A Jordanian source expressed mounting concern that the violence could spill into the country, and that the kingdom, an ally of the United States, is participating in increasing diplomatic efforts to preserve the de-escalation zone after it helped seal the agreement there.
In a related development, a commander in the pro-Assad regional coalition said that a drone was targeted by an Israeli missile when it was taking part in the Syrian army’s operations in Qunaitera Governorate near the Occupied Golan Heights. The Israeli army said that it fired an anti-aircraft Patriot missile against a drone approaching from Syria, but did not hit the target. It should be mentioned that Israel expressed its fear of Iranian or pro-Iranian forces reaching its border with Syria.
Manbij and Solidification of Turkey’s Role
18-24 June 2018
Reuters
Fighters from a Syrian Kurdish faction are leaving Manbij north of Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday. (Reuters) Turkish armed forces earlier said that Turkish and US forces had started independent patrols north of Syria along the line separating Turkish-controlled areas and Manbij city, in which Ankara says that the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) are deployed. Earlier this month, Ankara and Washington agreed on a road map for the withdrawal of YPG fighters from Manbij and the deployment of Turkish and US forces in the area to secure it. YPG fighters will begin to withdraw from Manbij, north of Syria, starting on 4 July and after months-long preparation, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday. (Reuters)
The decline in the US role signals a solidification of the Turkish role in northern Syria, complicating the situation between Turkey, the Syrian government, and Kurdish factions.
On Tuesday, the Syrian government condemned the Turkish and US incursion around Manbij, a day after the two countries started military patrols in the area. The Syrian government pledged to confront any foreign presence on Syrian territory. (Reuters)
The Syrian army will regain control of the northern part of the country by force if militants refuse to surrender, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in a television interview on Sunday.
“We have chosen two paths: the first and most important one is reconciliation… The second path is to attack terrorists if they don’t surrender and refuse to make peace,” Assad said in the interview. “We will fight with them (opposition fighters) and return control by force. It is certainly not the best option for us, but it’s the only way to get control of the country,” said Assad, responding to a question about the northern part of Syria where armed groups backed by Turkey hold some territory. (Reuters)
The tensions in Manbij coincide with security tensions in Raqqa where the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who hold control of the city, imposed a curfew for three days starting on Sunday and declared a state of emergency, saying that ISIS fanatics snuck into the city and were planning to carry out attacks. Reuters reported that internal security forces of the SDF set up checkpoints around the city. The SDF announced the curfew late Saturday night to take effect starting early Sunday until Tuesday. (Reuters)
Targeting Iraqi “Mobilization Forces”
19 & 22 June 2018
Reuters
On Tuesday, Iraq denounced airstrikes that targeted forces fighting ISIS in Iraq or Syria, after official media said that US-led coalition planes bombed a position belonging to Syrian government forces near the Iraq border, resulting in deaths and injuries. The People’s Mobilization Committee said that US bombing on the Iraqi border with Syria left twenty-two of its members dead and twelve others injured. The United States denied involvement in this attack. A statement from the Iraqi army later said that none of the People’s Mobilization Forces or any Iraqi forces in charge of securing the Iraqi-Syrian border were subject to an airstrike and that the strike took place inside Syrian territories. Although Iraqi forces have launched air strikes against ISIS positions across the border with Syria, its security forces do not have any presence on the ground, however, several factions affiliated with the People’s Mobilization Forces have supported Syrian government forces for years. (Reuters)
Ghouta … Medieval War
20 June 2018
Reuters
Syrian government forces and affiliated forces committed war crimes and crimes against humanity during their long siege of eastern Ghouta through heavy bombardment and “deliberate starvation” of two hundred and sixty-five thousand people, UN investigators said on Wednesday. About twenty thousand opposition fighters, some belonging to “terrorist groups”, entrenched in the besieged area and bombed nearby Damascus in attacks “that killed and maimed hundreds of Syrian civilians”, amounting to war crimes, UN invesitgators said. The latest report by the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria, led by Paulo Pinheiro, is based on one hundred and forty interviews as well as photographs, videos, satellite imagery, and medical records. The report condemned what it described a “medieval form of warfare.” The report went on to say that tactics used from February to April 2018 to recapture the enclave were “largely unlawful in nature, aimed at punishing the inhabitants of eastern Ghouta, and forcing the population, collectively, to surrender or starve.” The report said that planes bombed hospitals depriving the injured of medical care, adding: “This pattern of attack strongly suggests that pro-Government forces systematically targeted medical facilities, repeatedly committing the war crime of deliberately attacking protected objects, and intentionally attacking medical personnel.” UN experts cited evidence of chlorine gas use in Ghouta at least four times this year but said their investigation would continue. (Reuters)
The Tragedy of Politicized Asylum
22 June 2018
Reuters
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Friday on a visit to Lebanon that the situation in Syria is not suitable yet for the return of refugees, an issue which has led to a dispute between Lebanon’s Foreign Minister and the UN refugee agency. “We want to help find solutions in Syria so that a return of refugees can take place…we need more secure conditions for a return to be possible,” Merkel said in a news conference in Beirut with Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri.
After meeting Merkel on Friday, Lebanese President Michel Aoun said he asked for Germany to support calls “for the gradual return of displaced Syrians” from Lebanon. Aoun said on Twitter that he “stressed the need to separate between this return and a political solution for the Syrian crisis.” (Reuters)
On the Turkish side, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main rival in Sunday’s presidential elections both pledged to send Syrian refugees to their country in response to growing unease among voters about the number of migrants in Turkey. “Right after the election we aim to make all Syrian lands safe, starting from areas near our border, and to facilitate the return home of all our guests,” Erdogan said in a speech in the southeastern city of Gaziantep. He also said that two hundred thousand Syrians have already gone back to areas north of Syria controlled by Turkey and allied Syrian fighters after military campaigns to oust Kurdish fighters and ISIS fighters. (Reuters)
Common Ground in Geneva
19 June 2018
Reuters
Senior officials from Iran, Russia, and Turkey had “substantive” talks on Tuesday regarding the formation and function of the Syrian constitutional committee, and more talks are planned within weeks, said the UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura.
On Monday 25 June, de Mistura met with representatives from the United States, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Germany. “During the meeting, constructive exchanges and substantive discussions took place on issues relevant to the establishment and functioning of a constitutional committee, and some common ground is beginning to emerge,” a statement after the talks in Geneva said.
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | مايو 22, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Russia is There to Stay
16 May 2018
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on 16 May that Russian Military vessels equipped with Kaliber cruise missiles will be on permanent standby in the Mediterranean to confront what he described as the “terrorist threat” in Syria.
This rocket deployment demonstrates how Russia has been strengthening its military presence in the Middle East since its intervention in Syria in 2015, tipping the balance in favor of its ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Putin said that only military warships armed with Kaliber missiles will be on permanent standby and not the submarines.
Putin declared the deployment of the warships armed with rockets in a speech to the supreme military leadership during a meeting in Sochi city on the Black Sea, stating that this deployment was a result of “the ongoing terrorist threat in Syria.”
Russia possesses a permanent naval base in Tartus on the Syrian coast and an air force base in Hameimim.
Shrapnel of the Syrian “Explosion”
16 May 2018
The Special UN Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura warned that tensions in the country are still high due to “international confrontations” on the ground.
During a briefing to the UN Security Council on Syria, Staffan de Mistura warned that the tensions in the relationship between Israel and Iran demonstrate “a troubled trajectory of ever more frequent and intense international confrontations.”
Israel and Iran exchanged rocket strikes in the Golan Heights last week, raising concerns of a wider conflict erupting in Syria.
De Mistura said that he feels encouraged about the ninth round of talks in Astana that was held on Monday with delegates from Iran, Russia, and Turkey, the three countries sponsoring the so-called Astana process.
He added that “careful but preemptive diplomacy” is necessary to revive the political process and reduce escalation of fighting.
Turkey finished its deployment of twelve surveillance posts in Idlib, between Aleppo, Lattakia, and Hama in north-western Syria in accordance to the Astana process.
Hezbollah Withdrawing
17 May 2018
Forces loyal to the Syrian army withdrew from their posts in al-Hadher town, south of Aleppo, on Thursday.
“A military convoy of around twenty-five vehicles flying the Lebanese Hezbollah flag including tank carriers withdrew from al-Hadher, twenty-two kilometers south of Aleppo, on Thursday and headed towards sites in Mount Azzan, which is controlled by the Iranian Republican Guard,” a source in the Syrian opposition told a German news agency.
“The withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters and government soldiers came after pressure from Russian forces, which want to establish a surveillance post in the area, and after the Turkish army deployed surveillance posts in Tallet al-I’es in the southern countryside of Aleppo,” the source confirmed.
Iranian forces in Mount Azzan came under a missile attack believed to be from a coalition of Israeli planes near the end of last month.
Putin and Al-Assad
17 May 2018
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in a special meeting on Thursday in Russia that it is time to speed up the political transition process to reconstruct Syria and withdraw foreign forces involved in this country.
This was the first meeting between the Russian president and his Syrian counterpart since their brief meeting in December at the Russian base in Hmeimim, Syria, after which Putin declared the partial withdrawal of Russian military units in the country.
The two presidents also met in November in a Black Sea coastal city, south-east of Russia, where the Russian president owns a house.
As was the case in November, the Thursday meeting was held secretly. Russian television broadcasted snippets of the meeting between the two men who emphasized the military success of the Syrian government, which is receiving support from the Russian army.
This meeting strengthens al-Assad’s position, ahead of Putin’s meetings with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macaron next week.
Putin congratulated the Syrian president on the “successes of the Syrian government army in combatting terrorist groups,” which paved the way to “create new conditions to resume the political process on a large scale,” according to a statement from the Kremlin.
The Russian military intervention, which began in September 2015, allowed the Syrian army to recapture most of the territories.
The Russian president went on to say that “with the start of the active phase of the political process, foreign armed forces will withdraw from Syrian territories,” without defining who these forces were. Putin added that “the next mission is to revive the economy and provide humanitarian assistance.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russian forces are present in Syria at the request of the legitimate government and would remain there as long as necessary.”
Mysterious Explosions in Hama
18 May 2018
Unexplained huge explosions rocked the Hama military airport according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
The SOHR Director Rami Abdul Rahman said the explosions occurred in “weapon and fuel depots of government forces in the airport” near Hama city. The SOHR said that it did not receive any information about the cause of the explosions, adding that it “left plumes of smoke near the city of Hama.”
The Syrian news agency SANA reported “sounds of explosions in the outskirts of Hama airport” without any additional details.
During the past few weeks, Israel repeatedly targeted several military positions in Syria, the last of which was on the night of 9-10 May when Israel bombed dozens of “Iranian” targets in response to a rocket attack on the occupied Golan, which it claimed to be “Iranian” as well.
Since 2011, Israel has repeatedly bombed targets belonging to the Syrian army or Hezbollah, however, this recent bombing targeted positions occupied by Iranians.
Russian Blackmail!
18 May 2018
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that her government sees that Russia should use its influence to prevent the confiscation of refugees’ rights in Syria.
In a one-hour meeting on Friday in Sochi on the Black Sea, the German Chancellor discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin the so-called Decree Number 10 issued by the Syrian government.
The decree states that Syrians who do not register themselves within a period of several weeks in their hometowns will lose their property inside Syrian territories. Merkel said that this decree “would be a major obstacle for going back,” in reference to Syrian refugees in Germany.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP) called on Merkel’s government not to yield to Putin’s blackmail regarding the issue of Syrian refugees and reconstruction of Syria.
The Foreign Affairs Official in the FDP told the German newspaper Bild that Germany should not participate in the reconstruction of Syria until violence ceases and a permanent peace agreement for its future is reached.
Bijan Djir-Sarai cautioned the German government saying that “Germany should not submit to Putin’s dictates and blackmail on how to shape the reconstruction of Syria after the war,” stressing that Germany “cannot unconditionally rebuild Syrian cities destroyed by Russia.”
Syria… The Worst in History
18 May 2018
The humanitarian crisis in Syria is worse this year than ever before in the country’s seven-year-old war, a UN official said.
“We see in 2018 the humanitarian situation inside Syria being the worst we have seen since the war started: a very dramatic deterioration, massive displacement, disrespect of protection of civilians and people’s lives still being turned upside down,” Panos Moumtzis, UN Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syria crisis, said in Beirut.
In modern history, Syria is the worst country in terms of attacks on healthcare workers and facilities, accounting for seventy percent of all such attacks worldwide, he said.
The coordinator said that UN data shows eighty-nine healthcare workers died in ninety-two confirmed military attacks on healthcare facilities between 1 Jan and 4 May, compared to seventy-three killed in one hundred and twelve attacks in the whole of 2017.
Between the Government and ISIS
20 May 2018
The SOHR reported that a group of ISIS fighters were evacuated from the last opposition enclave near Damascus on Sunday, in a withdrawal that will restore the government’s control over the area.
Official Syrian media did not mention anything about an agreement that allows for the fanatics to leave the enclave that is located near the Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees.
Official media reported on Saturday that a Syrian military source denied reaching an agreement.
By restoring the Yarmouk enclave, the Syrian government has crushed the last besieged opposition enclave in western Syria, although some sectors near the borders with Turkey, Iraq, and Jordan are still outside its control.
The SOHR said the buses entered the enclave after midnight to transport the fighters and their families. The buses left for al-Badiah (the desert), which is low in population and situated east of the capital.
بواسطة Ibrahim Hamidi | مايو 19, 2018 | News, غير مصنف
ما أن انتهت قوات الحكومة السورية بدعم من الجيش الروسي من معارك وتسويات الغوطة الشرقية وريف حمص، حتى بدأ السؤال يتصاعد في موسكو من جهة وطهران ودمشق من جهة أخرى، عن المرحلة المقبلة ومستقبل مناطق النفوذ الخارجي الثلاث الباقية: جنوب غربي سوريا، شمال غربي سوريا، شمال شرقي سوريا.
أما في برلين وباريس وعواصم أخرى، فكان السؤال، يتناول كيفية تحريك العملية السياسية ومستقبل مساري جنيف وآستانة وإمكانية الإفادة من تجربة مينسك للحل الأوكراني باجتراح «مينسك سوري».
الاعتقاد في برلين وباريس ودول أخرى، أن الأمر لم يعد يتعلق بالسوريين، نظاماً ومعارضة. بل بات يتعلق باللعبة الكبرى. لذلك؛ فإن إحدى القضايا التي حملتها المستشارة الألمانية أنجيلا ميركل إلى الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين في سوتشي أمس، هو الإفادة من خصوصية العلاقة الألمانية – الروسية، وإطلاق مجموعة عمل جديدة خاصة بسوريا، مشابهة لمجموعة مينسك، بحيث تضم روسيا، وأميركا، وألمانيا، وفرنسا. ولا شك أن الرئيس الفرنسي مانويل كامرون سيحمل الفكرة ذاتها إلى بوتين في 25 الشهر الحالي، خصوصاً بعدما فشل اقتراح فرنسي سابق بتأسيس «مجموعة اتصال».
الاقتراح الألماني الجديد هو بين اقتراحات أخرى، كان بينها الجمع بين مجموعة آستانة التي تضم روسيا وإيران وتركيا من جهة ومجموعة الدول الخمس ذاتها التفكير المماثل، أميركا، وفرنسا، وبريطانيا، والسعودية، والأردن التي انضمت إليها لاحقاً ألمانيا.
العقبة أمام هذا الاقتراح، هو رفض واشنطن الجلوس على طاولة مع الجانب الإيراني خصوصاً بعد قرار الرئيس دونالد ترمب الانسحاب من الاتفاق النووي. أما ألمانيا، فإنها تحمل بعض المقترحات لتجاوز هذه العقدة. لكن جهوداً كبيراً مطلوبة لذلك، خصوصاً إذا أضيفت العقبات القائمة بين روسيا وأميركا حالياً.
هذه العقبات زادت في الأيام الأخيرة؛ إذ إن واشنطن رفضت حضور اجتماع آستانة الأخير. كما أن الجانب الأميركي لا يزال يفضل مفاوضات جنيف وإن كان لا يبذل الرأسمال السياسي الكافي لتحريكه.
موسكو من جهتها تسير في مسار آستانة، وباتت أنقرة تدعمها في ذلك وتفضله على مفاوضات جنيف وتنفيذ القرار 2254. لذلك، فإن إحدى نتائج اجتماع آستانة الأخير كان الاتفاق على عقد الاجتماع المقبل في سوتشي في يوليو(تموز) المقبل لبحث الملف السياسي، مع أن عملية استانة كانت مخصصة للبعد العسكري وإجراءات بناء الثقة فقط.
لكن العقدة أمام موسكو، كانت في إقناع دمشق على السير في المسار السياسي لسوتشي، أي تشكيل لجنة دستورية من قبل المبعوث الدولي ستيفان دي ميستورا. وكان لافتاً، أن الأمر تطلب لقاءً بين الرئيس فلاديمير بوتين والرئيس بشار الأسد الذي وافق على إرسال قائمة من مرشحين إلى اللجنة الدستورية لـ«تعديل» الدستور الحالي، مع تجنب ذكر مفاوضات جنيف.
ولم يكن هذا الخلاف الوحيد بين موسكو من جهة وطهران ودمشق من جهة أخرى؛ ذلك أن الخلاف الآخر الذي استدعى لقاء بوتين والأسد، يتعلق بمرحلة ما بعد الغوطة. بحسب المعلومات، فإن موسكو تفضل التزام «هدنة الجنوب» مع أميركا والأردن. وكان وزير الخارجية الأردني أيمن الصفدي بحث مع نظيره الروسي سيرغي لافروف «ترتيبات» معينة لجنوب سوريا، تتعلق بفتح معبر نصيب الحدودي وتجنب العمل العسكري وتحييد السلاح الثقيل وانسحاب ميلشيات إيران إلى مسافات متفق عليها تصل إلى 25 كيلومتراً من الحدود ومحاربة فصائل «الجيش الحر» تنظيمي «جبهة النصرة» و«جيش خالد» التابع لـ«داعش». ويعتقد الجانب الروسي بإمكانية الوصول إلى «ترتيبات» مقبولة من الأردن وإسرائيل وأميركا تسمح بانتشار الجيش السوري من دون معارك.
لكن طهران تدفع دمشق للذهاب عسكرياً إلى جنوب غربي سوريا والسيطرة عليها، وهما تعتقدان بأن لديهما «إمكانية الردع العسكري» لإسرائيل في حال تصاعدت المواجهات في الجنوب؛ ما يعتبره الجانب الروسي «مغامرة فيها الكثير من المخاطر»، قد يستغلها رئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي بنيامين نتنياهو بتصعيد عسكري لـ«تصفية الحساب ومنع أي موطئ قدم إيراني في سوريا».
حماسة طهران ودمشق إزاء العمل العسكري في إدلب التي تضم 2.3 مليون شخص، نصفهم من النازحين، بات أقل بعد اجتماع آستانة الأخير الذي بارك نشر الجيش التركي 12 نقطة مراقبة كان بعضها بين إدلب، وحماة، واللاذقية، وحلب؛ ما يعني قبول تولي تركيا «عزل» إدلب وحل مشكلة الأجانب في «هيئة تحرير الشام» وغيرها، الذين يقدرون بعشرة آلاف من أصل 60 ألف عنصر.
أما المنطقة الثالثة في شمال شرقي سوريا، فإنها خاضعة أكثر للمزاج الروسي – الأميركي وتطور العلاقات بينهما، خصوصاً أنها المنطقة الوحيدة التي يقوم نوع من التعاون بين البلدين وسط توترات في مناطق أخرى. لكن، طهران ودمشق تدفعان رويداً رويداً في جعل الإقامة الأميركية والفرنسية شرق نهر الفرات وفي معسكر التنف مرهقة ومكلفة، إضافة إلى توفيرها ذخيرة للخطاب السياسي السوري الذي يتضمن «مقاومة الاحتلال» ورفض قبول أي قوات أجنبية غير شرعية. وهذا العنصر وافق عليه الرئيس بوتين عندما طالب خلال لقائه الأسد أول من أمس بانسحاب جميع القوات الأجنبية من سوريا، الموجودة من دون موافقة دمشق.
بواسطة Ibrahim Hamidi | أبريل 12, 2018 | News, غير مصنف
انشغلت الإدارة الأميركية بتشكيل تحالف دولي – إقليمي يدعم قرار الرئيس دونالد ترمب توجيه ضربات لمواقع تابعة لقوات الحكومة السورية، التي بات حصولها مسألة وقت ما لم يقدم الرئيس فلاديمير بوتين «تنازلاً سياسيا وعسكرياً كبيراً» للرئيس ترمب يتعلق بـ«المنظومة الكيماوية والحل السياسي» و«وقف كامل للطيران السوري».
عسكرياً، أرسل الجيش الأميركي مدمرات وقطعاً بحرية وحاملات طائرات محملة بصواريخ طويلة المدى إلى البحر المتوسط قبالة سواحل سوريا بالتزامن مع تعزيز الجيش الفرنسي وجوده في المتوسط واستنفار القاعدة البريطانية في قبرص وارسال معدات اخرى الى المتوسط. وبات العسكر في انتظار القرار السياسي من واشنطن ولندن وباريس.
ويتوقع أن تتطلب الضربات الموسعة انضمام المزيد من القطع العسكرية وحاملات الطائرات. وكان مقررا لحاملة الطائرات الأميركية «يو إس إس هاري ترومان» وسفن الإسناد المرافقة لها، أن تكون غادرت أمس ميناء نورفولك في ولاية فيرجينيا متجهة إلى البحر المتوسط والشرق الأوسط، في حين أن حاملة الطائرات «يو إس إس تيودور روزفلت» وأسطولها المرافق ستتحرك من موقعها في المحيط الهادي. ويستغرق وصول ترومان أسبوعا للوصول إلى المتوسط، بحسب موقع «ستراتفور» الاستخباراتي.
بوادر تحالف
أجرى ترمب اتصالات مع قادة أوروبيين وعرب بالتزامن مع اتصالات بين العسكريين والدبلوماسيين. والواضح أن هناك اختلافاً بين الظروف الراهنة وقصف إدارة ترمب مطار الشعيرات بعد الهجوم بالسارين على خان شيخون في إدلب في أبريل (نيسان) الماضي. وقتذاك، تحركت إدارة ترمب في شكل منفرد عندما أطلقت قطع أميركية صواريخ توماهوك كروز على الشعيرات التي أفادت التقارير بأنها نقطة انطلاق الهجوم بغاز السارين. لكن هذه المرة، من المرجح للعملية العسكرية الموسعة أن تشمل على توجيه ضربات متعددة على مدى عدة أيام، ومن شأن ذلك أن يستلزم توفير ما يلزم من القوات من أعضاء التحالف الدولي – الإقليمي المحتملين.
وتوقع مركز «ستراتفور» أمس أن «يتسع نطاق العملية المتوقعة بالمقارنة بالضربات الموجهة سابقا إلى الشعيرات من حيث التركيز هذه المرة على تقويض قدرة الحكومة السورية على تنفيذ الهجمات بالأسلحة الكيماوية». وأعطى الرئيس الفرنسي إيمانويل ماكرون أهمية أكبر إلى احتمال تنفيذ عملية عسكرية موسعة، عندما صرح في 10 أبريل الحالي قائلا بأن فرنسا تعتزم استهداف المنشآت الكيماوية السورية في الضربة الجوية المتوقعة.
بحسب المعلومات، فإن الموقف الفرنسي «متقدم على الموقف الأميركي، لجهة ضرورة على استخدام الكيماوي»، مقابل تأخر تيريزا ماي رئيسة الحكومة البريطانية لحسم موقفها بالمشاركة بالتحرك العسكري من دون تصويت برلماني.
جاء ذلك بعد انقسام بين أصوات تدعو إلى ضرورة الانخراط الكامل بـ«الرد على الكيماوي» خصوصاً بعد اتهامات لندن موسكو بتسميم جاسوس روسي سابق ووقوف ترمب مع لندن بـ«العقاب الدبلوماسي» لموسكو وقول مسؤولين بريطانيين إن ماي ليست في حاجة إلى قرار من مجلس العموم وبين موقف آخر متردد بتقديم دعم لانخراط عسكري من دون تفويض برلماني ومن «دون توفر دليل ملموس» على استعمال دمشق للكيماوي في مدينة دوما.
وكان برز خلاف آخر بين واشنطن ودول أوروبية ما إذا كانت الضربات ستقتصر فقط على مواقع لها علاقة باستعمال الكيماوي كما حصل لدى قصف الشعيرات أم تشمل مواقع سورية ورمزية تخص القصر الرئاسي السوري وقوات الحكومة. وقال مسؤول غربي: «في حال تم معاقبة النظام على استعمال الكلور، هذا يعني خفض سقف الخط الأحمر ليشمل أنواعا أخرى من السلاح ورفع مستوى التوقعات». وأضاف: «هل الهدف ردع النظام عن استعمال الكيماوي أم إضعاف النظام».
ومن شأن الجولة الجديدة من غارات التحالف أن تستهدف، بحسب معلومات «ستراتفور»، قواعد «الضُمير»، و«المرج»، و«المزة» الجوية المنتشرة حول دمشق «التي لعبت دورا بالغ الأهمية في الهجمات الحكومية السورية ضد الغوطة الشرقية». وقد تشمل العمليات العسكرية أيضا «مجموعة واسعة من المواقع الأخرى ذات الصلة بالبرنامج السوري للأسلحة الكيماوية». وقال: «إذا ما قررت الولايات المتحدة الانتقال بالمهمة الحالية إلى مستوى آخر، فيمكنها محاولة الحد من مقدرة دمشق على استخدام الأسلحة الكيماوية، وليس مجرد تثبيط الرغبة في استخدام تلك الأسلحة. ويمكن، في هذا السياق، استهداف منشآت القيادة والسيطرة والاتصالات، لكن العملية سوف تحتاج إلى توجيه الضربات عبر شبكة أوسع من الأهداف وربما ضد الدفاعات الأرضية ذات الصلة. ومن شأن المهمة أن تركز أيضا على الوسائل الثلاث التي يمكن لدمشق من خلالها استخدام الأسلحة الكيماوية: القوات الجوية، وقوة الصواريخ الباليستية، وقوة المدفعية».
حافة الهاوية
موقف لندن ودول أخرى تطالب بـ«توفر الدليل»، لم يكن مصدر التعقيد الوحيد أمام إدارة ترمب، بل إن موسكو عقدت الأمر على واشنطن. بعد قصف دوما في غوطة دمشق بالغاز السام، قال الجانب الروسي إنه بالفعل حصل هجوم كيماوي، لكن المسؤولية تقع على «إرهابيين»، لكنها موسكو عادت وقالت لاحقاً إن الأمر كله «مسرحية وفبركة» وإن الكيماوي لم يستعمل أصلاً. وبرزت مواجهة بين الدولتين في مجلس الأمن.
وكلما كانت الحملة العسكرية أوسع نطاقا ارتفعت المخاطر المحتملة على القوات الروسية. وتتوقف التداعيات بحسب القتلى الروس وما إذا كانوا من الجيش النظامي أم «المرتزقة» كما حصل بقصف أميركي مجموعة في دير الزور منهم قبل شهرين.
ربما تحاول الولايات المتحدة التخفيف من آثار تلك المخاطر، كما حدث في أبريل العام 2017. من خلال تحذير الجانب الروسي بشأن الغارات الجوية الوشيكة. ويحد الوجود الروسي، الذي يتركز أغلبه في طرطوس واللاذقية ودمشق، من الخيارات المتاحة أمام الولايات المتحدة حيال المجموعة المحددة من الأهداف. وتزيد الحملة العسكرية الأكثر اتساعا وشمولية من مخاطر الاصطدام بالقوات الروسية.
لكن التعقيد الأكبر الذي وضعته موسكو على طاولة القرار الأميركي، التلويح بـ«التصعيد» إلى مواجهة أميركية – روسية وتسريب بعض الدبلوماسيين الروس بـ«قصف» معدات عسكرية أميركية، إضافة إلى تفصيل آخر وهو أن الجيش الروسي أبلغ نظيره الأميركي أنه لن يسحب عناصره من مواقع سورية تقع ضمن قائمة «بنك الأهداف» ما يعني احتمال وقوع قتلى روس وانتقال التصعيد إلى مرة أخرى، بحسب مسؤول غربي.
على النقيض من ذلك، فإن توجيه الضربات للقوات الإيرانية المنتشرة يحمل الحد الأدنى من التداعيات بالنسبة إلى واشنطن. وظهر ذلك واضحا في الآونة الأخيرة عندما شنت القوات الجوية الإسرائيلية غارة على قاعدة «تيفور» قبل ثلاثة أيام، وهي الغارة التي أسفرت عن مصرع الكثير من العناصر الإيرانية من دون أن يتبعها رد انتقامي عاجل من جانب إيران. وكان لافتا قيام ألكسندر لافرينييف مبعوث الرئيس الروسي بزيارة طهران لتنسيق الموقف بعد تلويح واشنطن بالقصف وبعد قصف إسرائيلي قاعدة «تيفور» قرب حمص ومقتل خبراء إيرانيين بطائرات «درونز» كانوا مسؤولين عن إرسال طائرة فوق الجولان السوري المحتل. كما أن علي أكبر ولايتي مستشار قائد «الثورة» علي خامنئي زار دمشق بعد ذلك.
يبدو أن الخيارات المطروحة متفاوتة من حيث المخاطر المحتملة، لكن أيا من هذه الخيارات خاليا تماما من المخاطر. وقائمة المخاطر كبيرة وممتدة الأثر، وهي تتراوح بين الخسائر المادية والبشرية إلى نشوب صراع فعلي مع روسيا أو تنفيذ طهران تهديدها بتصعيد المواجهة مع إسرائيل خصوصاً بالتزامن مع تلويح واشنطن بالانسحاب من الاتفاق النووي. وإذ أخلت قوات النظام و«حزب الله» مواقع في سوريا، سرب مقربون من طهران دمشق أمس: «أي ضربة سنرد عليها بفتح جبهة لبنان».
لدى فشل مجلس الأمن بتمرير مشروع أميركي لتشكيل آلية تحقيق بالكيماوي تحدد المسؤول عن استعماله، فإن موقف منظمة حظر السلاح الكيماوي إرسال خبراء إلى دوما في الأيام المقبلة «قد يكون وفر بعض الوقت» وإن كان ترمب يرفض انتظار نتائج زيارة محققي «منظمة الحظر» خصوصاً أن محققيها غير مخولين بتحديد من استعمل الكيماوي وتقتصر مهمتهم على القول إنه استعمل وسط قناعة الإدارة الأميركية بـ«توفر معلومات استخباراتية أن النظام مسؤول عن قصف دوما»، الأمر الذي نفته دمشق.
يتوقع وصول محققي «منظمة الحظر» إلى دوما خلال أيام، لكن على نحو ما كان واضحا في عام 2017، فإن البدء في التحقيقات لا يستلزم بالضرورة تأخير أو تأجيل تنفيذ الأعمال العسكرية. وكلما طال أمد أي عملية عسكرية محتملة، ازداد احتمال ظهور القيود السياسية، مثل القانون الأميركي لصلاحيات الحرب. وقال مسؤول غربي: «سواء حصلت ضربة محدودة أو موسعة، فإنها قد تفتح الباب لمفاوضات وعقد صفقة كبرى تضمن عناصر لحل سياسي سوري تحدد شكل النظام السياسي وتنازلات عسكرية مثل الوقف الكامل للطيران السوري وتفكيك منظمة السلاح الكيماوي، ما يتطلب تفاهما أوليا بين الدول المتحالفة قبل التفاوض مع موسكو».
