The Internet – ISIS’s Trap for Recruiting the Youth

The Internet – ISIS’s Trap for Recruiting the Youth

It was the first time Anoud heard her two sons admiring ISIS, “They’re real and devoted men,” they said as they watched a video of the group’s militants stoning a woman to death for adultery in the countryside of Hama.

The true shock came in mid-August of 2015 when they disappeared. The fifty-year-old widow from the countryside of Tal Hamis said, “At first I thought they were kidnapped, but a month later my cousin said that they went to Raqqa and joined the ranks of the terrorist group.”

Her son Dhorgham was later captured by the People Protection Units (YPG), while Khalaf blew himself up in a terrorist operation in Deir Azzor last year. His widow married another fighter, forcing Anoud to work as a street vendor in various city allies in order to support her four grandchildren.

So’ad (a pseudonym for a teacher from al-Shaddadi in the countryside of Hasakeh) saw the bodies of her two young sons Ghaith and Laith on her mobile phone, who were killed in an airstrike by the international coalition on ISIS’s Raqqa stronghold two years ago.

So’ad fled al-Shaddadi with her family to live in Hasakeh three years ago, after the radical group took control. She suspected that her sons were affiliated to ISIS after they attacked their sole sister Israa and forced her to wear a black abaya (a long dress) and burqa (head cover). “Ghaith and Laith banned Israa from going to school and called her an apostate and out of religion. They spent most of their time on the internet, until early hours of the morning,” So’ad said.

These behavioral changes made So’ad and her husband check their sons’ mobile phones whenever they got a chance to read their private message. They saw numerous videos of slaughtering, killing, and burning carried out by ISIS extremists.

So’ad said that one day she “read a message from someone called Abu Homam on Twitter promising Ghaith (16 years) a safe passage along with his brother Laith (15 years) to the Caliphate.” Fearing her sons might join the group, So’ad borrowed twenty-five thousand dollars from her brother to pay the cost of sending them to Germany and protect them from ISIS propaganda.

“My husband and I found a human trafficker who promised to take them from Qamishli to Germany through Turkey and Russia. My brother who has lived in Germany for ten years was supposed to receive them there. They arrived to Russia after going through Turkey indeed. However, they went back to Turkey and then to Raqqa. They were killed nine months after their arrival. It is too late now. I failed in keeping the specter of ISIS away from my sons. The end has been catastrophic for us,” said So’ad.

Extremist Imams

Danial Mohammed became increasingly suspicious in his childhood friend and cousin Mohammed’s extremist views as the latter sent him links to Youtube videos for ISIS preachers on Whatsapp application, in which the preachers promised a rosy life after death and “virgins waiting for whomever blows himself up in the infidels, the enemies of the Caliphate.”

Danial finally realized that his cousin, who fled compulsory military service in mid-March 2011 and travelled to the Turkish city of Gaziantep, had soaked up ISIS intellect and was trying to drag him into the quagmire.

“Every time I asked Mohammed why he spoke in classic Arabic instead of our local dialect, he would smile and say because it is the language of Paradise,” said Danial. “ISIS has massive forums on social media to recruit victims. It was able to attract thousands of young people, including my cousin whom I did not hear from for a month. I was then surprised to see a post on his death along with his picture on one of the pages run by ISIS,” Danial added.

Danial believes that a large number of young people were influenced by extremist imams who deformed their thoughts. “When they communicate with them on the internet, it is easy to give them a large dose of hate for their society and further extremism. They become ready to justify the killing and slaughtering of individuals in society they see as infidels because of the extremist imams’ preaches. I think if they had been monitored from the beginning, society would not have produced such unnatural thinking examples,” he said.

Millions of Users

ISIS exploited the internet for its propaganda and to recruit the youth because of its ease of use and the rapid spread of new media among youth groups, according to Moayed Karim, an expert on social media and information technology. Karim said that the rapid development of the internet led to a change of view in the danger of electronic terrorism, from hacking government and big media websites to concern that extremist organizations could use social media to recruit the youth, especially now that the number of Arab Facebook users has exceeded ninety million. “The group’s members resort to their mobile smartphones to promote their extremist ideas, which makes it hard to monitor… ISIS uses psychological attacks against its declared enemies by disseminating horrifying videos of executions and beheading of hostages and prisoners.”

According to Karim, Twitter was the social media which ISIS relied on the most in its electronic war, as it facilitated public posts and direct blogging, which enabled sending tweets to an enormous number of users. The number of active twitter accounts was estimated last year at around two hundred and seventy million with more than four hundred million tweets per day, according to Karim.

Ahfad al-Rasoul (descendants of the Prophet), Dar al-Khilafah (house of the caliphate), and Zahret al-Maqdes (flower of Jerusalem) are all accounts that proliferated terrorism on social media platforms to gain the largest number of youth followers, as Tunisian journalist Zohoor al-Mashriqi put it. Al-Mashriqi mentioned a recent study which found that ISIS had seven media outlets, including Furqan, Itissam, Makateb al-Wilayat, Bayan radio, and Dabeq magazine, in addition to two hundred and ninety thousand pages on social media, especially Twitter and Facebook. They all seek to promote and market the group’s intellect around the world to recruit the largest number of young people, especially those who have extremist views from all parts of the world, according to the study.

Muslims and Psychological Experts… For Publicity

Recognizing the importance of electronic publicity, ISIS issued its strategy to make Muslims work as propagandists on the internet. The fifty-five-page document aims to attract Muslims and entice them to promote the organization by disseminating its violent and extremist message in the digital world. “Media weapons can actually be more potent than atomic bombs,” one of the passages states.

After translating the document, researchers at King’s College issued a report to counter the group’s attempt to deputize Muslims as propagandists by offering potential recruits, who may be young Muslims looking for a life purpose in a chat room, with positive messages that meet their needs and prevent their radicalization.

Aram Hasan, trauma consultant and head of the CoTeam center in Germany, mentioned studies and surveys that proved the group’s success in its electronic war, which surpassed its victories in wars on the ground in Syria and Iraq.

Hasan talked about ISIS using psychological experts in its attempt to recruit new members. “They have experience. It is evident in their print and visual media releases which are edited with high proficiency, not to mention the language used, control of voice levels, and other special effects. This all indicates expertise, knowledge, and professionalism,” says Hasan.

Regarding the methods to deal with this propaganda, Hasan said that diffusing the group’s influence on the youth can be accomplished on the individual, governmental, and international institutional levels by establishing centers to fight extremism and raise the awareness of internet users on the danger of such organizations to limit their impact on the minds of young people.

*This article was originally published in Arabic here.

Syria in a Week (18 – 25 March 2019)

Syria in a Week (18 – 25 March 2019)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

End of the “Caliphate”

25 March 2019

Dozens of ISIS fighters surrendered on Sunday to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) after they came out of tunnels they were hiding in inside the town of al-Baghouz, as the SDF declared the complete elimination of the “caliphate”.

The Kurdish self-administration warned on Sunday that ISIS’s danger persists, with thousands of foreign fighters and their families being held inside SDF detention centers and camps and its ability to mobilize sleeper cells.

Several countries around the world hailed the declaration of the elimination of the caliphate, after the group was stripped off of all territories it once controlled. The SDF leadership along with its US-led international coalition ally announced the start of a new phase of the war to eliminate the group’s sleeper cells.

In the remote town of al-Baghouz east of Syria, where the final confrontation against ISIS took place, dozens of men were seen standing in line to board several pickup trucks. Some of them had long beards and some were wearing the traditional woolen robes and kuffiyas on their heads, while others had their faces covered.

“They are ISIS fighters who came out of tunnels and surrendered today,” Kurdish spokesman Jiaker Amed said without specifying numbers. “Some others could still be hiding inside,” Amed added.

An AFP team saw plumes of black smoke rising from the camp on Sunday; Amed said they came from burning ammunition depots that belonged to ISIS.

The camp, which is filled with tunnels and fallen tents, looked like a scrap yard littered with burnt cars, kitchen utensils, water bottles, and gas cylinders.

The international coalition spokesman said that SDF forces will continue to comb the area in search of jihadists and potential weapons caches.

“This back-clearance operation will be deliberate and thorough and help ensure the long-term security for the area,” the spokesman said on Twitter.

Head of the foreign relations in the Kurdish self-administration in Syria Abdel Karim Omar said, “We eliminated the state of ISIS, which is a major accomplishment, however, this does not mean that we have eliminated ISIS as an organization.”

“There are thousands of fighters, children, and women from fifty-four countries, not including Iraqis and Syrians, who are a serious burden and danger for us and for the international community,” Omar said.

The SDF estimates that during their military advances and operations, which were repeatedly paused to allow for the exit of those besieged, more than sixty-six thousand people left the ISIS pocket, including five thousand jihadists who were arrested, while others managed to escape.

Among those leaving is a large number of the jihadists’ family members, many of whom are foreigners. They were transferred to three camps in northeastern Syria, the most prominent of which is al-Hol camp, designed to accommodate twenty thousand people but now hosts more than seventy-two thousand people, including twenty-five thousand school-aged children.

“There are thousands of children who have been raised according to ISIS ideology,” Omar said. “If these children are not re-educated and re-integrated in their societies of origin, they are potential future terrorists,” he added.

According to Save the Children, there are more than three thousand and five hundred foreign children from thirty countries in the three camps.

The issue of foreign jihadists and their families has burdened the Kurdish self-administration, which called on their countries of origin to repatriate them and have them face justice on their territories. However, Western countries seem to be reluctant because of security concerns and fear of public backlash after deadly attacks adopted by the radical group. A small number of countries, including France, showed interest in taking back some of the children.

After eliminating the ISIS “caliphate,” Kurds fear that Washington will move on with its plan to withdraw troops from northern Syria, thus they would become a target for an offensive threatened by Turkey.

Ankara sees the SDF as a terrorist organization and fears they might cooperate with Kurdish insurgents inside Turkey. Omar warned that any cross-border offensive risked leading to mass breakouts from the jails where jihadists are currently held. “There should be coordination between us and the international community to confront this danger,” he added.

The US presence has dampened Ankara’s thrust and prevented Damascus from launching an attack to take back control of their territories. US President Donald Trump announced at the end of last year that he was going to withdraw all two thousand troops from Syria, however, Washington later said that it would keep around four hundred soldiers for an indefinite time.

“Fighting ISIS and its extremist violence will not end soon,” commander of the international coalition Paul LaCamera said on Saturday. Before its defeat, the group put out voice recordings on Telegram in recent days, calling on its members to take their “revenge” from the Kurds and launch attacks in the West against enemies of the “caliphate.”

Al-Baghouz front was a clear example of the complexity of the Syrian conflict which recently started its ninth year, leaving more than three hundred and seventy thousand dead, while all international efforts failed to reach a political settlement.

Kurdish Invitation

25 March 2019

Syrian Kurds urged the government to open up a dialogue to “block all attempts that challenge Syria’s sovereignty by parties that have intervened in Syria, especially the Turkish occupation regime.”

Sihanok Deibo, member of the presidential council of the Democratic Syria Council (DSC) said, “Damascus and other Arab countries should regard the (Kurdish) self-administration as a safety valve and a counter front to Turkish aggressive ambitions.”

“The number of ISIS prisoners and family members exceeds fifty thousand from forty-eight Arab and foreign nationalities,” Deibo said, considering this huge number a “big dilemma which the self-administration in northern Syria cannot bear the sole responsibility for.”

“The best way would be to establish an international tribunal in north and east of Syria, with details agreed upon with the self-administration,” Deibo added.

Golan “Documents”

24 March 2019

The Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday that the US President Donald Trump would sign a proclamation recognizing Israel sovereignty of the Syrian Occupied Golan Heights when he meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington on Monday.

“President Trump will sign tomorrow in the presence of PM Netanyahu an order recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights,” Katz wrote on Twitter.

The announcement was faced with wide criticism from Arab and Western countries and the United Nations. Damascus affirmed its commitment to retake control the Golan by all means. The Arab League stressed that “Arab summits always affirm in their decisions the Arab status of the occupied Syrian Golan.”

Trump’s announcement is a break from decades-old US policy in the Middle East and longstanding international consensus.

The Arab League said, “In light of the recent development, some Arab countries could ask for new additions to the draft resolution regarding the Golan.”

The Arab League and Arab countries denounced Trump’s announcement, stressing that the “Golan is a Syrian occupied territory.”

“Statements by the US administration, which pave the way for an official US recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Syrian Golan, are completely outside international law,” Ahmed Abu Gheit, the General Secretary of the Arab League said on Thursday: “The Golan is a Syrian occupied territory according to international law, UN and Security Council resolutions, and recognition of the international community,” he added.

 

The Return is “Not Listed”

23 March 2019

“The issue of Syria’s return to the Arab League has yet to be listed on the agenda and has not been formally proposed,” said the League’s spokesman Mahmoud Afifi, referring to the Arab summit scheduled to be held in Tunisia at the end of March.

The Secretary General of the Arab League Ahmed Abu Gheit said on 6 March at the end of the 151stSession of the Arab League Ministerial Meeting in Cairo, Egypt that the issue of Syria’s potential participation in the upcoming summit in Tunisia was not discussed at all during the meetings.

On 12 November 2011, after eight months of the onset of protests in Syria, the Arab League decided to suspend Syria’s membership and impose political and economic sanctions on Damascus, calling on the Syrian army “not to use violence against anti-government protestors.”

A debate has risen concerning Syria’s return, especially after Damascus strengthened its authorities and military victories by the Syrian army, which took back control of vast areas from militant jihadists and opposition with help from its Russian and Iranian allies.

There is division among Arab countries in this regard. Iraq and Lebanon called for Syria’s return to the Arab League, while the United Arab Emirates reopened its embassy in Damascus in December 2018, after cutting diplomatic ties in 2012.

Assistant Secretary General of the Arab League Hossam Zaki said in a press conference in January, “There is no Arab consensus in regards to reconsidering Syria’s suspension from the Arab League.”

Syria in a Week (5 – 11 March 2019)

Syria in a Week (5 – 11 March 2019)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Statue!

11 March 2019

Hundreds of Syrians in the southern city of Daraa protested on Sunday at the erection of a new statue of the late President Hafez al-Assad, nearly eight years after the original was toppled at the outbreak of the Syrian conflict.

Demonstrators and witnesses said residents walked through the war-ravaged old quarter of the city calling for Assad’s overthrow, as security forces closed off the area to stop residents from other parts of the city joining the demonstration.

The government had given schools and government employees a day off on Sunday to attend a pro-government rally to inaugurate the new bronze statue of late president Hafez al-Assad, erected on the site of the previous statue felled by protesters. A witness said that the rally broke up after gunfire from near the square caused panic among attendees. A group of youths protesting in Daraa’s old quarter carried a placard reading: “It will fall. Your statue is from the past; it is not welcome here.”

The Syrian authorities have reinstalled several large statues of the elder Assad after military victories that have seen his son regain most of the territory once held by opposition forces.

 

Holding War Criminals Accountable

8 March 2019

International investigators are moving ever closer to finding justice for victims of atrocities in Syria’s eight-year war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people, the head of a UN war crimes body said.

Former French judge Catherine Marchi-Uhel,head of the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM), said that her office had received fifteen requests from national judicial or prosecution authorities for cooperation on Syria-related cases in five countries, and amassed a million records in all. The IIIM was set up in 2016 to probe and help prosecute the most serious crimes committed in Syria. “We are progressing I have no doubt, we are going in the right direction,” said Marchi-Uhel.

During the war, large numbers have died in air strikes and bombardment of cities. The United Nations has documented repeated chemical weapons attacks on civilians, and countless have faced torture, summary execution, and disappearance.

Marchi-Uhel is building on evidence gathered by the separate UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria, a body of independent experts headed by Brazilian Paulo Pinheiro since 2011. “My mandate is to investigate the most serious crimes from all sides and do preparatory work for those most responsible for those crimes to face justice,” she said.

“I don’t sign off on any indictment. With the team we have stopped when we consider a case is ready (for prosecution) … These things take a long time. It is not a bad sign; it means authorities are working seriously.”

Lawyers representing twenty-eight Syrian refugees in Jordan this week asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate Syria, arguing the court has jurisdiction because Jordan is a signatory. Also, nine torture survivors submitted a criminal complaint in Sweden on 19 February against Syrian officials, invoking universal jurisdiction.

 

The Black Enclave

5 – 11 March 2019

The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched an attack on the Islamic State’s final enclave in eastern Syria on Sunday, aiming at wiping out the last shred of its territorial rule that once spanned a third of Syria and Iraq. Although al-Baghoz is the last residential area controlled by the group, ISIS still constitutes a major security threat through its activities in other remote area and ability to launch guerrilla attacks. The SDF paused their advance towards the surrounded pocket more than once to allow for the exit of civilians, including the wives and children of the group’s fighters. The SDF said that more than four thousand jihadists surrendered last month and tens of thousands of civilians were evacuated.

The United Nations said on Friday that more than sixty-two thousand people displaced by fighting around the ISIS enclave have flooded al-Hol camp, with five thousand and two hundred people arriving between 5-7 March and thousands more expected.

The weather is cold and rainy and there is a shortage of tents and supplies. Dozens of children have died on the way to the camp. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) on Friday said al-Hol was at “breaking point”. Those arriving in al-Hol are in “extremely poor health” with malnutrition, diarrhea, and skin diseases.

 

Safe Zone on Cold Fire

6-8 March 2019

Turkey cannot accept control of a planned safe zone in northern Syria being given to anyone else, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday. If the United States could not take back the weapons it had given to the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria, it should give them to Turkey.

Fawza Youssef, a senior Kurdish politician, said that the Kurdish-led authorities in northern Syria want a multinational force to deploy at the Turkish border and reject the creation of a large “safe zone” that Turkey hopes to control. The Kurdish-led authorities have proposed their idea in talks with US officials while stressing the need for continued joint efforts against ISIS, which is on the brink of losing its last enclave in eastern Syria.

The Kurdish-led authorities were left scrambling for a strategy to protect their region from Turkey in December when President Donald Trump abruptly declared his intention to withdraw all US forces.

Since then, the US has partially reversed that decision and will keep two hundred troops in Syria to join what is expected to be a total commitment of about eight hundred to one thousand five hundred troops from European allies to set up and observe a safe zone in the northeast.

In a related context, General Joseph Votel, Commander of United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Thursday that he was under no pressure to withdraw forces from Syria by any specific date, after President Donald Trump ordered the drawdown of most US troops from Syria. “What is driving the withdrawal of course is our mission, which is the defeat of ISIS, and so that is our principal focus, and that is making sure that we protect our forces, that we don’t withdraw in a manner that increases the risk to our forces,” Votel said.

“There is not pressure on me to meet a specific date at this particular time,” Votel added.

 

Slow Naturalization

4 March 2019

Adel Jubeir, the Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, said on Monday it was too early to restore diplomatic ties with Syria or reinstate Damascus to the Arab League without progress on a political process to end the eight-year-old war. “This (reopening the embassy) is related to progress on the political process, so it is still early,” Jubeir told a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said he discussed Syria and Libya with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who is visiting Doha, the first stop in a Gulf tour. A political solution in Syria is the only option for the war-torn country, Al Thani said.

The Arab League suspended Syria’s participation seven years ago, and recently said that Syria’s restoration requires consensus of member states.

 

Return Guarantor!

9 March 2019

UNHCR Commissioner Filippo Grandi said the United Nations refugee agency should have a bigger presence inside Syria to observe and help refugees returning from abroad and from displacement within the war-torn country. After almost eight years of fighting, President Bashar al-Assad now controls most of Syria and the front lines appear stable for now between government territory and two big enclaves in the north and east still outside Damascus’s control.

“It is important that in areas of return, organizations like UNHCR are present and can observe the return, can have access to the returnees, and can help them address some of the problems they face,” Grandi said in Beirut, as the Syrian conflict approaches its eighth anniversary next week. “Without that presence, there is an element of confidence that is missing in the return of the people,” he added. Grandi also said that UNHCR was working with the Syrian government and its Russian ally on these matters.

Britain’s foreign office minister for the Middle East Alistair Burt said on Saturday the Syrian government had not so far done enough to make Syria a safe place for returnees. “It is clear (Assad) does not want to see many of his refugees return,” Burt told the BBC. “It is essential there will be no reconstruction support from UK and EU until there is a political settlement that goes some way to meeting the needs of those people,” he added.

Syria in a Week  (25 February – 4 March 2019)

Syria in a Week (25 February – 4 March 2019)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

Entering the ISIS Pocket

4 March 2019

The Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) cautiously advanced on Monday inside al-Baghoz town, the last ISIS pocket in eastern Syria, accusing the group of using civilians as human shields.

With support from the US-led international coalition planes, the SDF have pressed on with their “last offensive” launched on Friday against jihadists who refused to surrender and are currently encircled inside al-Baghoz.

In recent weeks, thousands of people left al-Baghoz, most of them civilian family members of the jihadists. They were settled in camps run by the SDF in north east of Syria, while suspected fighters were detained.

By taking control of the whole town, the SDF will pave the way for the end of the “caliphate” declared by ISIS in 2014 over vast areas it controlled in Syria and Iraq – estimated to be around the size of Britain.

Winning this battle does not mean the end of the group’s threat, in light of its ability to mobilize sleeper cells in liberated areas and spread in the vast Syrian desert.

Return is Subject to Change

4 March 2019

The Foreign Minister of Qatar Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani and his Russian counterpart affirmed their commitment to a political solution in Syria.

“We are committed to a political solution in Syria that is acceptable to the Syrian people,” said al-Thani in a joint press conference in the Qatari capital Doha.

He added that his country’s position in regards to reinstating Syria in the Arab League has not changed. “We explained the reasons in the past. There were grounds for suspending Syria’s membership and the grounds are still present. Nothing happened to make us change this decision. We are committed to a political solution that is acceptable to the Syrian people, in which Syria’s seat would be given to a political leadership representative of all the Syrian people,” al-Thani said.

Lavrov said that there is no need to form new workgroups on Syria in light of the active framework of the Astana process. He added that his country is in touch with all countries in the region regarding Syria “not just through the Astana process (talks)… We don’t see a need to form a new international communication group on the Syrian crisis.”

Counter-Revenge

3 March 2019

Thirty-three soldiers from government forces and allied fighters were killed on Sunday in attacks carried out by jihadists against Syrian government forces in Idlib governorate in north-west Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

This is the bloodiest escalation in the area after Russia and Turkey signed an agreement in September to establish a demilitarized zone in the outskirts of Idlib.

According to the SOHR, elements in Anssar al-Tawhid, who are allied to Qaeda-affiliated Hurras al-Din, launched the first attack early morning on Sunday in north Hama governorate in which six jihadists were killed. The attack targeted two government posts in al-Masasneh town and killed 27 government soldiers and allied militants.

In the adjacent Lattakia governorate, six government soldiers were killed on Sunday in attacks carried out by Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra), according to the SOHR.

Tahrir al-Sham and less influential jihadist groups control two thirds of the demilitarized zone, which includes parts of Idlib governorate, the western countryside of Aleppo, the northern countryside of Hama, and the north-eastern countryside of Lattakia. Tahrir al-Sham also controls the bulk of Idlib governorate.

President of the Parliament in Amman

3 March 2019

The twenty-ninth session of the Arab Parliamentary Union kicked off in Amman, Jordan on Sunday. Seventeen heads of Arab parliaments participated, including the head of the People’s Assembly in Syria, which is still outside the Arab League amid divisions on reinstating it in the organization.

The President of the Syrian People’s Assembly Hammoudeh Sabbagh said that his country would be victorious in its war on terrorism. “Do not be afraid or sad in regards to Syria. In this country you have brothers who will definitely eliminate terrorism, rendering it the last lesion in modern history. Their victory will be the victory for all Arabs and the region. They will help the whole world in getting rid of this monster that was created by the most powerful forces of aggression in the world,” Sabbagh said.

“Four wars are waged on the Arab people in Syria; the war of armed terrorism, the war of embargo, the war of contemporary media which uses the internet to invade us inside our homes through coordinated misinformation and intensive psychological attacks, and finally the war of war merchants and those affected by the near decisive victory,” he added.

Syria’s membership in the Arab League was suspended at the onset of the conflict in the country in 2011.

“There must be active movement to reach a political solution that guarantees the unity of the people and land of Syria and restores Syria’s well-being, so that it can take back its role as a fundamental pillar of stability in the region,” the Speaker of the Jordanian Parliament Atef Tarawneh said in his opening remarks.

Chemical Weapons in Douma

2 March 2019

 The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) said in a report published on Friday that chlorine was used in an attack that targeted the Syrian city of Douma in April of 2018.

The OPCW said in its final report that there are “reasonable grounds that the use of a toxic chemical as a weapon has taken place on 7 April 2018” during the attack on Douma in eastern Ghouta near Damascus, adding that “this toxic chemical contained chlorine gas.”

The report also said the two chlorine containers fell on a roof in Douma.

The report’s summary confirms information in a preliminary report published in July of 2018 – based on testimonies provided by doctors – that the attack left forty people killed.

The report does not point fingers at any party because this was not part of the mandate of the OPCW at that time. However, the organization was later granted the authority to identify who was responsible for any chemical weapon attacks after 2014.

The OPCW said that it did not find any evidence of using nerve gases previously used by parties of the Syrian conflict.

A team of OPCW inspectors collected more than one hundred samples from seven locations in Douma, when they entered the city a few weeks after the attack.

Witnesses told the inspectors that “forty-three people died as a result of the suspected chemical attacks, most of them appeared in a video lying on the ground in several floors of a residential building and in front of this building.”

The OPCW refuted the government account which said that the poisonous gas came from a chemical weapons facility affiliated with Syrian armed factions and a depot in the area, which the inspectors were allowed to visit.

French ISIS Militant Killed

28 February 2019

A French jihadist was killed in an airstrike by the US-led international coalition against ISIS on the Syrian village of al-Baghoz, the last ISIS stronghold, according to a statement from the coalition on Thursday.

The coalition did not reveal when Abu Anas was killed, a.k.a Fabian Clan, who was the media official for the radical group.

French media reported his death the previous Wednesday, but the news was not officially confirmed at the time.

According to French media reports, his voice was recognized in a voice recording in which ISIS claimed responsibility for the Paris attacks in 2015 that left one hundred and twenty-nine people dead in Bataclan Theater and pubs and cafés in the eastern French capital, in addition to one person near the Stade de France.

French media also said that Jean Michelle Clan was severely injured in the airstrike that killed his brother, but nothing was mentioned about this in the coalition’s tweet.

“The Distant End”

28 February 2019

The UN Special Envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen said on Thursday that the “conflict is far from over,” in this country suggesting a joint international forum of international powers to help bring peace to Syria.

In his first intervention before the UN Security Council, he said that “an international forum through which the major countries will work on outstanding issues will help resolve these issues and lead a political process led by Syrians.”

Pedersen, who took office in January, said “whole parts of the land are still out of state control,” and the organization of the Islamic state could “be reborn from under the ashes.”

He said that “eleven million Syrians are in need of humanitarian assistance,” raising at the same time the concerns of the people regarding the missing and detainees.

He also expressed the hope that a meeting of the Constitutional Committee would be held “as soon as possible,” while the establishment of the committee remains in force. Pedersen said the constitutional commission “increases the likelihood of relaunching the political process.”

According to the UN plan, the Constitutional Commission, which is supposed to lead the constitutional review process and electoral process, should include one hundred and fifty members: fifty of whom are selected by the government, fifty are selected by the opposition, and fifty are selected by the United Nations Special Envoy to take into account the views of experts and representatives of civil society.

It has yet to be agreed on the content of the third list, which is causing friction between Damascus and the United Nations.

During a UN Security Council meeting, all members expressed their full support for the UN envoy, but expressed differing views on the situation in the country.

Safe Return is an Illusion

28 February 2019

UN legal experts said on Thursday in Geneva that the ongoing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria do not allow refugees to go back to their homes despite the decline in violence.

Members on a UN commission of inquiry on Syria said that Syrians are not protected by law in any place, whether they live in areas controlled by the government, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or Tahrir al-Sham, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda.

Commission Chairman Paulo Pinheiro said in a press conference that more than seven years of hostilities have generated security vacuums, elevating violence and lack of law and creating “conditions that render the possibility of safe and sustainable return completely illusionary.”

More than five and a half million Syrians fled to neighboring countries since the onset of the war, according to the UN refugee agency.

Al-Assad Invites Zarif

27 February 2019

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday invited Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to visit Damascus, state news agency IRNA reported on Wednesday, without specifying a date for the trip.

Zarif tendered his resignation two days ago but Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani rejected it on Wednesday, calling it “against national interests”.

Rouhani told Zarif in a letter published on the electronic government website: “I consider accepting your resignation against national interest and reject it.”

The commander of the Quds Corps, which is part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani said that Zarif was the main person in charge of foreign policy, and stressed that Zarif’s not attending the meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad “was not intentional.”

Netanyahu Warning

27 February 2019

During a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Wednesday that focused mainly on the Syrian conflict, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cautioned against the “threat” posed by Iran, Syria’s main ally alongside Russia.

“Iran is the greatest threat to the stability and security in the region and we will do what we can to keep this danger away,” Netanyahu said at the beginning of the Kremlin meeting.

“It is very important to discuss issues related to the region’s security,” Putin said.

Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah are Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s allies. Netanyahu has repeatedly said the he would not allow Iran to use Syria as a military base to launch attacks against Israel.

Netanyahu was accompanied by his National Security Council Director Meir Ben-Shabat and head of military intelligence Tamir Heiman.

Prior to his Moscow visit, Netanyahu said the talks will focus on “preventing Iran from entrenching in Syria, the entrenchment of a country which explicitly says that its goal is to wipe us out.”

On Sunday, the Israeli prime minister said talks with Putin will be “very important” to ensure Israel’s freedom to act against Iran and Hezbollah in Syria while avoiding frictions with Russian forces.

الرايات السوداء تبحث عن حلة جديدة

الرايات السوداء تبحث عن حلة جديدة

بعد سيطرتها على كبريات المدن العراقية والسورية، تتهاوى دولة الخلافة الآن على الأراضي السورية، لتحدد الساعات القليلة القادمة موعد النهاية المنتظرة للتنظيم في آخر معاقله في منطقة “وادي الفرات”.

وفي جحيم المعارك الأخيرة، اختفى المئات من مقاتلي التنظيم بين قوافل المدنيين الفارين، رافضين لقبول فكرة انهيار خلافتهم، متربصين بأية فرصة للثأر والانتقام، فقبل أيام شهد مخيم الهول في ريف الحسكة مقتل ثلاثين شخصاً بعملية انتقامية من العناصر الهاربة. إذ قبضت القوات الأمنية الكردية المعروفة “بالأسايش” على خلايا نائمة لداعش دخلوا لمخيم الهول ملاذ المدنيين الفارين من معارك الباغوز في ريف ديرالزور متنكرين بهيئة نساء، مخفين وجوههم بالنقاب، وارتكبوا المجزرة قبل أن يدفنوا الجثث تحت خيامهم.

ويتحضر مسلحو داعش لإعدام ٦٠٠ رهينة إيزيدية مختطفة لديهم منذ الثالث من آب/اغسطس 2014، بعد أن أعدموا 50 مختطفة منهم مؤخراً، ونفذت هذه العملية الوحشية على ثلاث مراحل في أماكن مختلفة في بلدة الباغوز، انتقاماً لمقتل قياديين بارزين من التنظيم مع عائلاتهم في قصف جوي لطائرات التحالف على المدينة.

ويبرز هنا سؤال كنت قد طرحتهُ قبل أربع سنوات على كارون روز وهو دبلوماسي بريطاني رفيع المستوى، “هل يمكن أن ينتهي شبح داعش ويتبدد دون رجعة، أم أنه سيعاد الى القمقم ليستحضر بنسخة جديدة؟”.

وكان روز قد علق على سيناريو انتهاء داعش خلال زيارته لمدن وبلدات كردية في شمال وشرق سورية صيف 2015 مشيراً إلى أنه: “من الصعب التكهن بكيفية انتهاء داعش ومتى، كونه ظهر ووصل لمرحلة متقدمة من القوة في فترة وجيزة؛ فالقضاء عليه يتطلب جهداً أكبر ووقتاً أطول، وحسب متابعتي الشخصية لمجريات الأحداث أستبعد القضاء عليه نهائياً؛ فمستقبلاً سيناريو داعش سيتكرر باسم جديد وعلى جغرافية جديدة”.

وفقدت داعش 99 % من الأراضي عبر حدود خلافتها المزعومة، التي أعلنها البغدادي في العراق وسوريا عام 2014.

وانهارت أحلام التنظيم المتشدد بإنشاء دولة حين قضي عليه في الموصل بالعراق في تموز/يوليو 2017، وطرد في مرحلة تالية في تشرين الأول/أكتوبر الماضي من منطقة الرقة السورية التي كان قد أعلنها عاصمة لخلافته. وانسحب عناصر داعش بعد الهزائم الكبيرة التي مُني بها إلى المناطق الصحراوية في سوريا، ويكاد لا يبقى لهم أية مكاسب إقليمية.

وفي الوقت الذي سحب فيه داعش البساط من تنظيم “القاعدة” منذ 2014 في مدن كالرقة والموصل، نشهد أخيراً معاودة تنظيمات تابعة للقاعدة استحواذها على مدن كإدلب، أو دول أخرى مثل اليمن، فيما يتجه داعش نحو احتلال جبال تورا بورا معقل أسامة بن لادن، من أجل وضع لوائه فيها وإثبات قوة وجوده.

فمن اللافت أن يظهر عناصر من تنظيم “حراس الدين” -المتمركز فيجبال غرب إدلب وجبل باريشا ومدينة سرمين السورية- في عدد من المحافظات العراقية كصلاح الدين والأنبار ونينوى وكركوك وخانقين، وقضاء الشرقاط. وتأسس الفصيل الجهادي البالغ قوامه ١٨ ألف مقاتل في أواخر فبراير/شباط الماضي، وبايع تنظيم القاعدة معلناً ولاءه لأيمن الظواهري، لينضم إليه لاحقاً العديد من قيادات “تحرير الشام”، أما أول عملية نفذها بمفرده فكانت ضد قوات الحكومة السورية شمال محافظة حماه.

في الوقت الذي سعى فيه العديد من مقاتلي داعش للانتقال خارج سوريا إلى صحراء العراق بالقرب من منطقة الأنبار، وكجزء أبعد من استراتيجية التنظيم، يظهر الاهتمام في إيجاد مناطق نفوذ جديدة مثل ليبيا وأفغانستان وحتى الصومال ودول أخرى، الأمر الذي يلقي الضوء على ضرورة اجتثاث الفكر الآيديولوجي المتطرف كالذي ينشره “داعش” لتعطيل قدرته على التغلغل إلى المتعاطفين ومن لديهم قابلية للتطرف والأدلجة.

يصف الخبير في شؤون الحركات الإسلامية والإرهاب منير أديب انقراضتنظيم متطرف كداعش “بالأمر الشديد الصعوبة، لأن ذلك يستلزم استسلام هذه التنظيمات وإعلانها الخسارة، وهو أمر ترفضه غالبية هذه التنظيمات التي تستعيض عن ذلك بالركون، حتى تحصل على فرص تمكنها من النهوض من جديد” بحسب قوله.

وفي ظل السياسات غير الجدية في التعامل مع التنظيم المتطرف، يؤكد أديب على “حتمية العودة لداعش”، مشيراً إلى أننا الآن نشهد إعادة إنتاج جديد للتنظيم بتكتيك مختلف، وباسم مختلف أيضاً.

ومع غياب تصورات المواجهة للأفكار المتطرفة التي خلفها التنظيم، لا يعني تحرير الموصل والرقة بالضرورة نهاية التنظيم، فالخشية أن يكون السياق السياسي والأمني -الذي أحيا التطرف وسيّده على مناطق شاسعة- لا يزال قائماً في العراق وسورية والمنطقة بشكل عام. ولهذا فإن الانحسار الجغرافي للتنظيم، ربما يقابله تمدد أيديولوجي لرايات سود تبحث عن وسائل تنظيمية جديدة لتظهر مجدداً في مناطق تشهد صراعات سواء كانت في الشرق الأوسط أو جنوب شرق آسيا أو في غرب أفريقيا أو في أوروبا من خلال استراتيجية (الذئاب المنفردة) والخلايا النائمة.