Syria in a Week (22 – 28 October 2019)

Syria in a Week (22 – 28 October 2019)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Russia Distributes the Roles… in the Self-administration!

Reuters

27 October 2019

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said on Sunday it had agreed to withdraw more than thirty kilometers from the Turkish border, an announcement welcomed by Damascus which said Turkey should now end its “aggression” in northeast Syria. Turkey launched its cross-border offensive on 9 October targeting the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northeast Syria after President Donald Trump pulled US troops out of the area.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russia’s Vladimir Putin then agreed on 22 October that Syrian border guards and Russian military police would clear the border area up to thirty kilometers into Syria of YPG fighters over a six-day period that ends Tuesday.

The Russian ministry of defense said on Friday that around three hundred more military police and more than twenty armored vehicles were sent to Syria under an accord between Ankara and Moscow that has halted Turkey’s military incursion into northeast Syria.

Eliminating al-Baghdadi… in Syria!

Reuters

27 October 2019

President Donald Trump said on Sunday that fugitive ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi died in a raid by US special forces in northwest Syria, describing it as a great victory against the radical organization.

Al-Baghdadi killed himself by detonating a suicide vest after fleeing into a dead-end tunnel, Trump said in a televised address from the White House. He was positively identified by DNA tests fifteen minutes later, the president said.

Trump said “many” of al-Baghdadi’s people were killed in the raid and added that in blowing himself up, Baghdadi also killed three of his children. US forces suffered no personnel losses, he said. He also thanked Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iraq for their support.

Hours later, the Syrian Kurdish YPG said Islamic State spokesman Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir, described as Baghdadi’s right-hand man, had also been killed in a separate joint raid by Kurdish-led and US forces in northern Syria.

Turkey said it was proud to have helped “bring a notorious terrorist to justice”, but Russia’s response was skeptical, with the defense ministry in Moscow saying that it had no reliable information on the US raid.

SDF Withdraws from Ras al-Ain

Reuters

21 October 2019

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on Sunday said they had withdrawn from the border town of Ras al-Ain under a US-brokered ceasefire deal, but a spokesman for Turkish-backed Syrian rebels said the withdrawal was not yet complete. Ras al-Ain is one of two towns on the Turkish-Syrian border that have been the main targets of Turkey’s offensive to push back Kurdish fighters and create a “safe zone” inside Syria that is more than thirty kilometers deep.

War Crimes

Reuters

23, 26 October 2019

Former prosecutor and UN investigator Carla del Ponte said in an interview published on Saturday that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan should be investigated and indicted for war crimes over his country’s military incursion in Syria. “For Erdogan to be able to invade Syrian territory to destroy the Kurds is unbelievable,” said del Ponte. “An investigation should be opened into him and he should be charged with war crimes,” she added.

Amnesty International said in a report published on Friday that Turkey is forcibly sending Syrian refugees to an area of Syria near the border where it aims to set up a “safe zone” even though the conflict there has not ended.

Human Rights Watch said in a separate report Friday that authorities had arbitrarily detained and deported dozens of Syrians to northern Syria between January and September.

In a related context, President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Syria James Jeffrey said on Wednesday that US forces had seen evidence of war crimes during Turkey’s offensive against the Kurds in Syria. “We haven’t seen widespread evidence of ethnic cleansing,” Jeffrey said during his testimony in congress, but there are reports of “several incidents which we consider war crimes.”

Putin Explains to al-Assad

Reuters

22 October 2019

The Kremlin said on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin explained to his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad by phone the results of his talks with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. Putin, after lengthy talks with Erdogan, highlighted in the phone call with al-Assad that restoring Syria’s territorial integrity was the main task.

Al-Assad thanked Putin and “expressed his full support for the results of the work, as well as the readiness of the Syrian border guards, together with the Russian military police, to reach the Syrian-Turkish border,” the Kremlin said.

Syrian President Bashar al Assad on Tuesday denounced Turkey’s leader as “a thief… who stole factories, wheat, and oil… and is now stealing our land,” for attacking the northeast of Syria and reiterated a pledge to retake all areas lost to Damascus in years of civil war.

Al-Assad made the remarks as he made a rare visit to a frontline of Syria’s conflict, touring an area in war-torn northwestern Idlib governorate close to the last major bastion of Turkey-backed rebel forces.

Covert Turkish-Syrian Contacts

Reuters

21 October 2019

Turkey is holding covert contacts with Syria’s government to avert direct conflict in northeast Syria where both sides have deployed their armies, Turkish officials say, despite Ankara’s long-standing hostility to President Bashar al-Assad.

Warily, the two sides have set up channels of communication, both direct military and intelligence contacts and indirect messages through Russia, to reduce the risk of confrontation, three Turkish officials said.

The Constitutional Committee and the First Meeting

Reuters

24 October 2019

UN Special Envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen said on Thursday that the ceasefire in northeast Syria seems to be holding “by and large”, as major powers gather in Geneva ahead of the first meeting of Syria’s Constitutional Committee next week.

Pedersen said that envoys from seven Arab and Western states backing the opposition, known as the “small group”, which includes the United States, are due to meet in the Swiss city on Friday. Senior officials from the so-called Astana three – Russia, Iran, and Turkey – were expected in coming days.

The major powers would not participate directly in the “Syrian-owned, Syrian-led” constitutional effort, or the opening public ceremony, but they supported the process, he said.

Convening the Constitutional Committee, the first tangible progress since the Norwegian diplomat took up the UN job in January, is seen as key to paving the way for political reforms and new elections in the country wracked by eight years of war that have killed hundreds of thousands and forced millions to flee.

Oil Rush

Reuters

25, 26 October 2019

Russia’s defense ministry on Saturday attacked US plans to maintain and boost the US military presence in eastern Syria as “international state banditry” motivated by a desire to protect oil smugglers and not by real security concerns. US troops and private security companies in eastern Syria are protecting oil smugglers who make more than thirty million dollars a month, the statement said.

US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Friday Washington would send armored vehicles and troops to the Syrian oil fields in order to prevent them from falling into the hands of ISIS militants. His comments came after President Donald Trump earlier this month pulled some one thousand US military personnel out of northeast Syria, a move that prompted Turkey to launch a cross-border incursion targeting the Kurdish YPG, a former US ally against ISIS.

Syria in a Week (14 – 21 October 2019)

Syria in a Week (14 – 21 October 2019)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

US Withdrawal

20 October 2019

US forces withdrew on Sunday from Sarrien airport – largest US military base in northeast Syria – following Washington’s recent decision to withdraw a thousand troops from the area, according to an AFP correspondent and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

The AFP correspondent saw more than seventy military armored vehicles raising the US flag passing the city of Tal Tamr in al-Hasakeh governorate, as helicopters flying nearby accompanied them.

The SOHR chief Rami Abdul Rahman told the AFP that the convey evacuated from Sarrien airport, which US forces had used as a base – thirty kilometers south of Kobani (Ain Arab). The base is situated on the outskirts of a buffer zone that Ankara is trying to establish in northeast Syria, where it has launched, along with allied Syrian factions, an attack against Kurdish fighters since 9 October. Turkey was able to take control of a one hundred and twenty kilometer border strip.

US forces withdrew from three other bases last week, including a base in the city of Manbej and another near Kobani.

Besiege of Ras al-Ain

19 October 2019

The Syrian National Army – allied to the Turkish army – cut off the road between Ras al-Ain and Tal Tamr in the northwest countryside of al-Hasakeh governorate, effectively enforcing a total besiege of Ras al-Ain.

A source close to the Syrian army told a German news agency that armed groups attacked Syrian army posts in al-Ahras village – fifteen kilometers northwest of Tal Tamr. The Syrian army was able to repel the attack, and members of the armed groups returned to the area they came from.

Repatriation of ISIS Fighters

19 October 2019

The investigative judge David Douba –coordinator of the anti-terrorism division of the Paris court, warned in an interview with the AFP that failure to repatriate detained French jihadists in Syria “constitutes a danger on the general security” in France.

“The political instability and the ease of breaching the remaining Kurdish camps raise two concerns: a disorderly immigration of jihadists to Europe with the risk of attacks by radical ideologists on the one hand, and the reformation of militant terrorist groups which are highly trained and determined on the other hand,” Douba said in an unprecedented statement, at a time French authorities refuse the return of these jihadists.

France has around two hundred people and three hundred children in camps and prisons under Kurdish control in Syria. It refuses to repatriate them, like many other countries, because of public discontent and wants them to be prosecuted close to where they committed their crimes.

However, after Turkey launched on 9 October its offensive against Kurdish fighter in northern Syria, Western countries fear that twelve thousand jihadists detained by the Kurds in Syria, including 2,500 to 3,000 foreigners, may flee.

Fragile Truce

18 October 2019

Hours after Washington declared a ceasefire, Turkish war planes launched an airstrike that killed a number of civilians in Kurdish-controlled areas in northeast Syria as sporadic clashes continued in a border town, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

Kurdish fighters on Sunday said they do not intend to withdraw from all of the north-east border of Syria – which is exactly what the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expects to happen according to a ceasefire deal brokered by the United States on Thursday.

Bloomberg news agency said that the conflicting interpretations denote the fragility of the five-day ceasefire.

Drawing a Ceasefire

17 October 2019

Turkey agreed on Thursday to pause its offensive in northeast Syria and halt it all together if Kurdish fighters withdrew from the area in five days, according to a deal drawn by US Vice President Mike Pence in Ankara.

In order for Kurdish forces to withdraw “within one hundred twenty hours, all military operations of the Peace Spring operation will be paused, and they will be completely halted once this withdrawal is finalized,” Pence told reporters after talks with Erdogan that lasted for more than four hours.

Kurdish forces have to withdraw some thirty-two kilometers away from the border and the area would eventually turn into a “safe zone” – which Turkey has been seeking for months.

ISIS Liberates

17 October 2019

ISIS said on Thursday that it “liberated” a number of women detained by Kurdish fighters, after an attack on one of their headquarters in the governorate of Raqqa in northern Syria, according to a statement posted on jihadists’ accounts on Telegram.

This follows a series of incidents after Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) left their positions to repel an attack by Ankara and allied Syrian factions against areas under SDF control, in which around eight hundred people of ISIS family members fled the camp for displaced people and jihadists fled from prisons, in addition to riots in other detention centers.

Al-Assad Confronts

17 October 2019

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad vowed to respond to the attack launched by Turkey on 9 October in northeast Syria “by all legitimate means,” according to the Syrian official news agency SANA.

Al-Assad said in a meeting with an Iraqi official that the Turkish attack is “a blatant invasion and an evident aggression,” adding that Syria “will respond and confront it in all of its forms on all Syrian territory and by all available legitimate means,” after government forces deployed in numerous areas near the border with Turkey under an agreement with the Kurds.

Evacuation

16 October 2019

The Kurdish self-administration called upon the international community to intervene and open a “humanitarian corridor” to evacuate civilians and wounded people who are “besieged” in the border town of Ras al-Ain after Turkish forces and allied Syrian factions encircled it and fierce clashes erupted.

Since 9 October, Turkey has launched an attack in northeast Syria, displacing more than three hundred thousand civilians. It was able to control vast border areas, but not Ras al-Ain where the battles are concentrated.

Incursion Numbers

16 October 2019

The repercussion of the Turkish attack on the humanitarian situation in Syria in numbers:

– Three million people reside in northeast Syria.

– Seventy-two civilians were killed by the Turkish army and allied factions.

– Twenty civilians were killed on the Turkish side of the border.

– One million and eight hundred thousand people are in need of aid.

– Three hundred thousand people fled their homes in border areas.

– Eighty-three thousand newly displaced people received aid.

– Forty schools were turned into shelters.

– Around one thousand civilians fled from the Kurdish self-administration to Kurdistan in Iraq.

– Four hundred thousand people in the city of al-Hasakeh and its surrounding face water shortages.

– Sixty-eight thousand displaced people reside in al-Hol Camp for displaced people.

– Thirty-two international non-governmental organizations suspended their activities and withdrew international staff in areas under the control of the self-administration.

– Three million and six hundred thousand Syrian refugees have fled to Turkey since the onset of the conflict in 2011. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to repatriate a large portion of them to the buffer zone he wants to establish near the border.

– Ninety percent of Syria’s total cereal crop is produced in northeast Syria.

The House and Trump

16 October 2019

The US House of Representatives on Wednesday voted overwhelmingly (354 votes to 60 votes) to condemn President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of US forces from northern Syria, in an official embodiment of the stark position of both the Democratic and Republican parties against the controversial foreign policy of the Trump administration.

This joint resolution is the first condemnation by Congress of Trump’s decision, which was considered by opponents as a green light for Turkish forces to invade northern Syria and attack Kurdish forces.

Kobani and Damascus

15 October 2019

Syrian government forces entered the city of Kobani (Ain Arab) in northern Syria under an agreement with the Kurdish self-administration to confront the ongoing Turkish attack against areas under Kurdish control, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Kobani possesses a special symbolism as it was witness in 2015 to the first prominent battles in which Kurdish fighters, with support from the US-led international coalition, defeated the Islamic State.

Since then, the People’s Protection Units (YPG) have become the spearhead in the fight against the radical group. The YPG’s relation with Washington strengthened as the latter continued to provide support after the YPG joined the Syrian Democratic Forces coalition.

After an attack by Turkey and allied Syrian faction on 9 October and in face of Washington’s determination to withdraw its troops from areas under Kurdish control, the Kurds had no solution but to resort to Damascus and its ally Moscow.

The outcome unfolded on Sunday, as the Kurdish self-administration announced a deal with Damascus that provides for the deployment of Syrian government forces along the border with Turkey to support the Syrian Democratic Forces in confronting the Turkish attack.

Under the deal and in the last two days, government forces deployed in the city of Manbej (northeast of Aleppo), the town of Tal Tamr (northwest of al-Hasakeh), and the surrounding area of Ain Issa (north of Raqqa).

 

 

Syria in a Week (8 – 14 October 2019)

Syria in a Week (8 – 14 October 2019)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

Turkey Declares the Offensive

Reuters

9 October 2019

Turkey and its Syrian rebel allies have launched their military operation into northeastern Syria, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday, adding that the offensive aimed to eliminate a “terror corridor” along the southern Turkish border.

Erdogan said the offensive, dubbed “Operation Peace Spring”, would aim to eliminate threats from the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Islamic State militants, and enable the return of Syrian refugees in Turkey after the formation of a “safe zone” in the area. “Our mission is to prevent the creation of a terror corridor across our southern border, and to bring peace to the area… we will preserve Syria’s territorial integrity and liberate local communities from terrorists,” Erdogan said on Twitter.

Turkish Invasion

Reuters

14 October 2019

The United States said on Sunday it will withdraw around one thousand troops from northern Syria in the face of an expanding Turkish offensive while Syria’s army struck a deal with Kurdish fighters to redeploy along the border with Turkey. The developments illustrate Washington’s waning influence over events in Syria and the failure of the US policy of keeping the Syrian government from reasserting state authority over areas lost during the more than eight-year conflict with rebels.

The developments also represent wins for Russia and Iran, which have backed the Syrian government since 2011 when its violent effort to crush what began as peaceful protests exploded into a full-blown civil war. While the US withdrawal moves American troops out of the line of fire, the return of Syrian soldiers to the Turkish border opens up the possibility of a wider conflagration should the Syrian army come in direct conflict with Turkish forces.

The Turkish onslaught in northern Syria has also raised the prospect that Islamic State militants and their families held by the Kurdish forces targeted by Turkey may escape – scores were said to have done so already – and permit the group’s revival.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday said the offensive would extend from Kobani in the west to Hasaka in the east and extend some thirty kilometers into Syrian territory, with the town of Ras al Ain now in Turkish control.

The military operation has sparked international concerns that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) would be unable to keep thousands of jihadists in jail and tens of thousands of their family members in camps.

The region’s Kurdish-led administration said seven hundred and eighty-five ISIS-affiliated foreigners escaped the camp at Ain Issa but the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), citing sources in the camp, said around one hundred people had escaped.

Erdogan dismissed the reports and told the state-run Anadolu news agency that accounts of escapes by Islamic State prisoners were “disinformation” aimed at provoking the West.

New reports of civilian casualties surfaced. A Turkish air strike in Ras al-Ain killed fourteen people including ten civilians on Sunday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The SDF said a “civilian convoy” had been targeted.

Russia and Talks Between Damascus and Kurds

Reuters

13 October 2019

The Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been holding negotiations with Russian participation, a Syrian Kurdish politician said on Sunday, expressing hope for a deal that would halt a Turkish attack.

Ahmed Suleiman, a senior member of the Kurdish Democratic Progressive Party in Syria, said the talks were being held at Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Lattakia, although a source close to the Syrian government said they were taking place in Damascus. “We hope an agreement is reached that halts the war and its dangerous and catastrophic consequences on the citizens east of the Euphrates”, said Suleiman, who is from the city of Qamishli in a part of Syria held by the SDF.

Syrian Army to Kobani

Reuters

13 October 2019

The Lebanese broadcaster al-Mayadeen said on Sunday the Syrian army would deploy within forty-eight hours to the town of Kobani which is held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the nearby town of Manbij which is controlled by SDF-aligned forces. The towns fall within a swath of northern Syria controlled by the SDF that is currently being targeted in an offensive by Turkey and Turkey-backed Syrian rebel groups.

Turkish-backed Opposition

Reuters

9 October 2019

Turkey’s rebel allies in northern Syria said on Wednesday they would have no mercy on Syrian Kurdish fighters in the northeast, whom they said had left them no choice but a battle.

“Strike them with an iron fist, make them taste the hell of your fires,” a statement from the National Army, the main Turkey-backed rebel force told its fighters. It also called for sparing civilians and those who defected to the rebels.

Europe Condemns

Reuters

10 October 2019

Turkey’s offensive on Kurdish-led forces in Syria has left its European allies incensed and fearing new jihadist militancy.

The assault, which began after US President Donald Trump pulled US troops out of the way, also raises fundamental questions over the fate of EU-Turkey ties and further strains transatlantic relations, including trust within the NATO military alliance, diplomats and officials said.

It complicates further any prospect of Ankara joining the European Union and threatens a migration deal between Brussels and Ankara that has slashed refugee numbers entering the bloc but which was under renewed pressure by new refugees trying to reach Europe.

“This is a recipe for disaster, be it for the Turks, the Kurds, or us,” said a senior European diplomat. “This Turkish intervention is a complete distraction that will open up a Pandora’s box.”

Ankara has said it intends to create a “safe zone” to return millions of refugees to Syrian soil, for which it wants Europe to pay, a plan European diplomats have said is unrealistic. All twenty-eight EU governments on Wednesday rejected those plans, saying they would not provide aid. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was blunt, saying: “Don’t expect the EU to pay for any of it.”

But how much Europe can do to pressure Ankara is unclear. It relies on Turkey to curb the arrival of refugees into Europe following a 2016 agreement to seal off the Aegean route after more than one million people entered the bloc.

Arabs are Angry!

Reuters

12 October 2019

Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit on Saturday led Arab foreign ministers in lambasting Turkey’s military operation in northeast Syria as an “invasion of an Arab state’s land and an aggression on its sovereignty.”

Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohamed Ali al-Hakim, president of the current Arab League session, also condemned Turkey’s offensive into Syria during an emergency meeting of the body, called by Egypt.

According to the final statement, the league called on the UN Security Council to “take the necessary measures to stop the Turkish aggression and for the withdrawal from Syrian territory immediately.”

Turkey dismissed the Arab League statement, saying it misrepresented its military operations.

ISIS Once Again

Reuters

11 October 2019

Islamic State claimed responsibility for a car bomb attack in the Syrian city of Qamishli which it said had targeted Kurdish militants. ISIS fighters detonated the parked car near a Kurdish security position in the city, the group said in a report on its Amaq news agency. The internal security forces in the Kurdish-led self-administration in north-east Syria had previously said that a car bomb detonated in Qamishli on Friday, killing at least three civilians and injuring nine others.

Protest Marches

Reuters

12 October 2019

Thousands of Kurds and their local supporters rallied in France and in Greece on Saturday to protest against Turkey’s military action in northeast Syria.

In Paris, about three thousand people gathered at the Place de la Republique after an earlier protest near the Eiffel Tower. People carried banners denouncing the Turkish offensive and calling on France to help the Kurds.

In Athens, about two thousand Kurds and Greeks marched to the Turkish embassy in central Athens waving Kurdish flags and banners reading “Stop the invasion now”.

What You Need to Know About Trump’s Syria Decision

What You Need to Know About Trump’s Syria Decision

Is the United States pulling out of Syria—again?

That was certainly what President Donald J. Trump seemed to say in a five-tweet rant on Monday morning. Hours earlier, the White House had announced that U.S. forces would no longer block a Turkish intervention in northeastern Syria: “Turkey will soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into Northern Syria,” the press statement said, clarifying that the U.S. military “will not support or be involved in the operation, and United States forces, having defeated the ISIS territorial ‘Caliphate,’ will no longer be in the immediate area.”

Pentagon officials were reportedly “blindsided” by Trump’s decision, but Turkey was jubilant.

For years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pushed the United States to step aside and let Turkey attack the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The multi-ethnic, secular SDF has been America’s chief local ally in its war against the so-called Islamic State, or ISIS, but it is led by a Syrian section of the anti-Ankara Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Disputes over the SDF are at the heart of a sharp deterioration in the Washington–Ankara relationship, to the point where Turkey’s commitment to NATO is being questioned.

As recently as August, the United States and Turkey struck a deal to manage their differences through joint patrols in northern Syria, and U.S. troops forced the SDF to destroy fortifications close to the border. But Turkey was not satisfied, and kept pushing for more. On September 24, Erdogan treated the UN General Assembly to a map of a future Syria in which Turkey had seized virtually every Kurdish town in the country. And on October 5, he said Turkey would send troops across the border within days.

The relentless Turkish brinksmanship seems to have been designed to pressure Trump to ditch the SDF in order to avoid U.S.–Turkish clashes or costly additional deployments. And it appears to have worked.

Muddled Messaging

It is still unclear exactly what Trump has agreed to. U.S. government rhetoric is so muddled at the moment that no one can quite figure out whether the White House has just begun a total pullout, or is merely taking a tactical step back to let Turkey have its way with a small part of Syria.

So far, U.S. forces have only retreated from a short stretch of Syrian-Turkish border land in the mostly Arab-populated region between Tell Abyad and Ras al-Ain. The 100–150 U.S. soldiers involved aren’t even leaving Syria, just relocating from the “immediate area” to stay clear of Turkey–SDF clashes. “We’re gonna get out of the way,” a U.S. official told the Washington Post.

However, the White House statement was unclear about the ultimate scope of the U.S. withdrawal, and also spoke about Turkey becoming responsible for holding SDF-imprisoned jihadis, most of whom are detained in the al-Hol camp on the other side of the SDF enclave.

How to handle the al-Hol detainees, including tens of thousands of family members of suspected Islamic State fighters, in addition to smaller numbers of Syrian and foreign combatants, has long bedevilled the United States. Trump has complained that European nations refuse to take back their citizens, and the White House statement kept hammering the point, insisting, in a flourish that seemed to betray the direct influence of the president, that the United States “will not hold them for what could be many years and great cost to the United States taxpayer” and concluding that “Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured.”

Turkey appears to have little interest in sorting out the al-Hol issue, and would, at any rate, not be confronted with it unless Turkish troops occupy the entire SDF-held region in northeastern Syria. For now, Erdogan has simply brushed the problem away by insisting that the number of detainees is “a bit exaggerated.

Trump’s Monday morning tweets added to the confusion by signalling an end to the U.S. involvement with Syria altogether. The United States needs to “get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars” and “bring our soldiers home,” Trump wrote, adding, “Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and the Kurds, will now have to figure the situation out.”

So is this a limited redeployment from one part of the Syrian-Turkish border, or the beginning of the end of America’s five-year intervention in Syria? It looks like the former, but it sounds like the latter.

In part, this confused messaging might be intentional. By raising the prospect of a full-scale withdrawal, Trump may be calling Erdogan’s bluff. The Turkish leader is being informed that, unless he abides by past agreement, he will be on his own in sorting out the Syrian mess.

For all of Erdogan’s maximalist rhetoric and his UN antics, Turkey may have little interest in controlling the entire SDF-held region—nearly a third of Syria—unless it can do so with the support and approval of the United States, the EU, and perhaps Russia, too. The al-Hol detainee issue alone is daunting, and Turkey would run up against international objections and internal insurgencies. Ankara’s capacity to administer areas beyond its borders is limited, its economy is in bad shape, the military is stretched as it is, and the Syrian rebels Erdogan wants to use as proxies are pinned down by Russian and Syrian government forces in Idlib. For Turkey to seek full control over northeastern Syria on its own would be a violent, costly, and politically fraught undertaking—which is why Erdogan’s bark may be worse than his bite.

The SDF, however, seems to fear the worst, complaining that it fulfilled all its obligations under the August 2019 deal but is still deprived of promised U.S. protection. Rather than backing down, the group struck a militant note: “We in the SDF will not hesitate for a moment to defend ourselves and call upon our people of all sects, Arabs, Kurds and Syriacs, Assyrians to join forces and stand with their legitimate forces to defend our country against this Turkish aggression.”

This Has Happened Before

Strangely enough, we’ve seen this happen once before. In December 2018, Trump shocked his national security staff by suddenly announcing that he would withdraw from Syria and let Turkey take over.

It didn’t happen, that time. Trump came under immediate pressure to reverse his decision, which was opposed by a curious constellation of forces: strong voices in the Pentagon were unwilling to abandon the SDF fighters they had fought alongside for so long; the intelligence community warned that the Islamic State could respawn; and a variety of politicos and penfighters insisted that the United States must remain in Syria for reasons related to Iran, Israel, or some other Washingtonian pet cause. Last but not least, a large contingent of administration insiders, politicians, and pundits who actually did want to exit Syria felt that Trump was doing it the wrong way—they wanted to leave in an orderly and controlled fashion, to limit blowback to the United States, its allies, and interests.

Internal outrage led Trump’s jihadi-hunter-in-chief, Brett McGurk, and his secretary of defense, James Mattis, both to resign in protest. The president was angry but impressed and, step by step, his decision was watered down to buy the mission more time. In the end, Trump agreed that some U.S. troops could stay while the SDF snuffed out remaining jihadi pockets, and the Department of State went panhandling in Europe and the Gulf for aid money and troops to cover U.S. cutbacks.

It didn’t work out very well, since, unsurprisingly, few U.S. allies were willing to put much on the line for so fickle a president. Ten months later, the United States is still the only pole holding up the tent in northern Syria—and Trump seems to be saying that time is up.

What Happens Now?

If Trump really did try to call Erdogan’s bluff, it may have worked, to a degree. Despite recently warning that an invasion was imminent, the Turkish leader has shifted to saying he will “discuss the depth of the operation” when he meets Trump in Washington early next month.

Erdogan may still end up launching a cross-border incursion, to stick his foot in the door while he can. But the Turkish leader also seems to fear that Trump will simply collapse the security architecture in northeastern Syria without putting anything in its place, and without giving Turkey time to develop its options.

Meanwhile, Trump will come under renewed pressure to keep troops in Syria. Roughly the same cast of people as last time are now crying foul again, and the U.S. president may settle for a more limited pullout. But Trump’s isolationist instincts are real, and his view of America’s post-9/11 wars as no-good quagmires is one of the few political ideas he has held with something approaching consistency. Continuing to prop up the SDF’s autonomous government will also grow harder and harder, once Turkey begins to develop its own proxies inside the northeast.

If Trump starts walking toward the exit, he may, whatever his original plans, soon find that the easiest choice is to just keep going.

Ultimately, however, what happens in Syria isn’t just up to Donald Trump. The rulers of Ankara, Damascus, Moscow, and Tehran, and a host of non state actors, including the SDF and whatever remains of the Islamic State, also have a vote. Their actions and reactions will shape U.S. options in the coming weeks, and, as many have learned by now, setting Syria’s chaos in motion is easy. Making it stop is a lot harder.

*This article was published at The Century Foundation website here

Syria in a Week (1 – 7 October 2019)

Syria in a Week (1 – 7 October 2019)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

US Abandons the Kurds

7 October 2019

The United Nations cautioned on Monday that it is “preparing for the worst” in north eastern Syria after the United States said it would allow the Turkish army to carry out a military operation in the area.

“We do not know what will happen … we are preparing for the worst,” UN Syria Humanitarian Coordinator Panos Moumtzis said in Geneva, adding that the United Nations is in contact with all parties on the ground. He said the UN has a contingency plan to address any additional civilian suffering, but “it hopes it will not have to resort to it.”

In recent weeks, Turkey has sent reinforcement to the border area with Syria, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that the operation alluded to by Turkey for some time could begin “any night without warning.”

His comments came after Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Monday that his country was determined to “cleanse” Syria of “terrorist” who are threatening Turkey’s security, referring to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – which Kurdish fighters make the backbone of.

The United States began withdrawing its troops from the border strip with Turkey in northern Syrian on Monday, paving the way for Ankara to carry out its threat to launch an attack against Kurdish fighters and undermine efforts to fight the Islamic State.

The Kurdish units are a major partner in the US-led international coalition to fight ISIS, and they have managed to defeat the radical group in vast areas in north and east Syria.

The SDF cautioned that “the Turkish military operation in north and east Syria will have a huge negative effect on our war against ISIS (the Islamic State),” stressing their determination to “defend our land no matter the price.”

Call Between Erdogan and Trump

6 October 2019

Ankara said on Sunday that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed, during a phone call with his US counterpart Donald Trump, to hold a meeting in Washington next month to discuss the “safe zone” in northern Syria.

Erdogan told trump that he “feels disappointed because of the failure of the US military and security bureaucracy to implement the deal” made by the two sides in August on a buffer zone on the Syrian border with Turkey, the Turkish presidency said in a statement.

Russian Airstrike in Idlib

5 October 2019

At least nine jihadist fighters were killed on Sunday in Russian airstrikes that targeted positions for two extremist factions, Horras al-Din and Ansar al-Tawheed, in eastern Idlib, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

These airstrikes came despite Idlib and its surrounding being included in a ceasefire since late August that was declared by Moscow and agreed to by Damascus. Due to this ceasefire, military jets have been absent from the air, however, artillery and missile breaches have continued intermittently.

Russia, which backs Syrian government forces, often launches strikes against the mobilization and headquarters of extremist organizations in Idlib and its surrounding.

Turkish Universities in Syria

4 October 2019

Turkey’s Gaziantep University will open three faculties in small northern Syrian towns, Ankara’s Official Gazette said on Friday, reflecting a growing Turkish presence in the region.

An Islamic sciences faculty will be opened in Syria’s Azaz, an education faculty in Afrin, and a faculty of economics and administrative sciences in al-Bab, Turkey’s official state publication said.

All three towns are in north-western Syria, west of the Euphrates river and broadly north of Aleppo, in regions to which Turkey has twice sent forces in the last three years to drive back the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and ISIS fighters, in a bid to protect its own border.

The towns have been struck in the past by bomb attacks, some of which have been blamed on ISIS and others on Kurdish fighters.

Ankara has previously built hospitals, restored schools, and trained fighters in northwest Syria, and Turkish media reports say it is planning to build an industrial zone in the region to create jobs for seven thousand people.

Mines and Explosive Devices

3 October 2019

At least one hundred and seventy-three people, including forty-one children, have been killed since the beginning of the year as a result of mines and explosive devices in various areas in Syria, according to a tally by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). This represents a new challenge created by the war that threatens the lives of millions of people.

Mines and explosive devices are some of the complicated issues that emerged from the Syrian war which has been ongoing for more than eight years.

The victims include at least forty-four civilians, mostly women, who were killed during the truffle season in rural areas, according to the SOHR.

Mines have also left dozens of victims, mostly women, with injuries that ranged from amputation to severe injuries.

According to the United Nations, 10.2 million Syrians are in danger of getting hurt by an explosive device left behind in the country as a result of the war.

Planting mines was a strategy followed by several parties in the Syrian conflict, most notably ISIS which booby-trapped various objects such as buildings, cars, household items, and food containers.

The Syrian government and the United Nations signed a memorandum in July to support Damascus’s demining efforts.

Sports, Gardens, and Churches

2 October 2019

Four years after the onset of Russia’s military intervention in Syria, Russian soldiers are enjoying a lavish life in their main base in the coastal city of Tartous, and there is nothing to suggest that their stay will not be long.

A Russian officer points to little plants planted in a garden in the naval base. “They will have enough time to grow,” he confidently says.

Announcements of Russia withdrawing its troops and decreasing its operations significantly have been continuously coming, without this having an effect on its long-term presence in Syria, which seems key to the country’s future.

Russian soldiers can visit gyms, saunas, bakeries, and dry cleaners, in addition to a small Orthodox church. Soldiers have “all necessary leisure means,” said a Russian officer, who requested to remain anonymous as he is not authorized to speak to journalists.

The intervention of the Russian air force in the Syrian conflict since September 2015 allowed the balance to tip in Damascus’s favor, as government forces managed to advance at the expense of both militant and jihadist factions and retake control of large swaths of the country.

According to official statistics, three thousand Russian soldiers are deployed in Syria, in addition to jets, helicopters, warships, and submarines. The new S-400 air defense system provides protection for the facilities.

The Russian Hmeimim base, which was hastily built near the outskirts of a civil airport, has turned into a permanent base since 2017. The same thing happened in Tartous, as this Russian naval facility situated at the port has turned into a “permanent naval base.”

In both sites, Moscow has a forty-nine-year lease, cementing its presence in the Middle East and enabling it to exercise its influence, especially against the United States.

Testing the “S-500”

1 October 2019

The Russian Izvestia newspaper said that the Russian army has carried out successful tests on the most important components of the S-500 air defense missile system.

The newspaper said, citing sources in the Russian ministry of defense and the military and industrial complex, that “tests have revealed a number of gaps in the work of the system’s equipment which were quickly filled,” adding that “the tests are over and they were deemed successful.”