Syria in a Week (26 November – 3 December 2018)

Syria in a Week (26 November – 3 December 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Two Children Burned

3 December 2018

Two Syrian refugees, including one child, died early Monday as a result of a fire in their camp in the Lebanese town of al-Yamooneh, east of Lebanon, Deputy Mayor Hussein Sharif told the AFP. Sharif said that the fire “burned twenty-three tents out of seventy present in the camp. A forty-six-year-old man died and a child who is seven or eight years old.” He added that what sparked the fire is unclear, but it is suspected to be that someone had left a heater on at night or it could be an electric shortcut. He also clarified that “the explosion of a fuel container in one of the tents caused the fire to spread.”

Security forces arrived at the scene and the UN sent a team to the camp, according to Sharif. One of the refugees told the AFP: “at three in the morning, we heard screaming. Then we saw flames (spreading) and we couldn’t put them out.”

Images showed the camp burned into ashes with nothing left other than poles. One of the images showed a girl looking in a pile of burned clothes, and another showed helpless young men looking at the destruction around them. Civil defense teams put the fire amid limited visibility due to fog and smoke, according to the official national media agency.

Fires have often erupted in Syrian refugee camps in recent years. Lebanon estimates the number of Syrian refugees within its territory around one and a half million, whereas the UN High Commission for Refugees puts the number at less than one million. Refugees live in harsh conditions and some live in unofficial camps. A big part of them relies on aid provided by humanitarian organizations. Camps, especially those in Bekaa east of Lebanon, are often subject to security raids.

After a raid on camps in the town of A’rsal, the Lebanese army arrested around four hundred Syrian refugees, including three hundred who had expired residency and thirty wanted under arrest warrants. Since the beginning of the year, the Lebanese General Security has been organizing group returns for refugees in coordination with Damascus. Eight thousand people have returned so far to Syrian areas where the battles stopped, according to a tally based on data from the General Security. The General Security said that tens of thousands of Syrians returned to Syria through trips coordinated with Damascus or on an individual level. Lebanese authorities waive late fines for those whose residency papers have expired if they decide to return to Syria.

 

Killing and Bombardment

3 December 2018

The US-led International coalition said that a prominent ISIS leader, responsible for the of execution of the US humanitarian worker Peter Kassig, was killed on Sunday in airstrikes carried out in the Syrian desert.  Coalition spokesman Colonel Sean Ryan said in an email “Coalition forces conducted precision strikes against a senior ISIS member, Abu al-Umarayn … responsible for the killing” of Kassig, who was kidnapped in Syria in 2013, and the jihadist group posted a video of his execution in November of 2014. Ryan confirmed that the jihadist had been indeed killed.

The strikes also targeted other members of the group in addition to Abu al-Umarayn, who was “involved and directly participated in the execution of numerous prisoners” held by the group. This is the first time the coalition announces the killing of a jihadist associated with the execution of Kassig since its aerial intervention against jihadists in Syria and Iraq in 2014. Ryan did not mention the jihadist’s role in the execution of Kassig.

The radical group had posted a video, on 17 November 2014, in which a masked man wearing black clothes and pointing at the head of a man at his feet said: “This is Peter Kassig, the American citizen.” Peter Kassig was a former US soldier who fought in Iraq, but he left the army and decided to dedicate his life to volunteer work. He worked in hospitals and clinics in Lebanon and Turkey that received Syrians who fled their country. He also worked in areas of disaster inside Syria. Kassig’s friends say he converted to Islam and took the name of Abdul Rahman. He was kidnapped in October 2013 while on a mission to transport humanitarian aid to Syria.

Before the coalition announced the killing of the prominent jihadist, Damascus accused it of launching missiles against Syrian army positions in the countryside of Homs, in the Syrian desert. The official Syrian news agency SANA said that “the US coalition forces launched around 8:00 pm (18:00 GMT) this evening several missiles against some positions of our forces in the Ghorab mountains south of Sukhna.” The head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) Rami Abdul Rahman said that coalition forces stationed in the Tanf base near the border with Iraq launched “more than fourteen missiles” at a government forces convoy when it was travelling in the dessert in the eastern countryside of Homs. He added that the “convoy was lost in the desert about thirty-five kilometers from the Tanf base,” where US and British forces are deployed.

In a response to a question from AFP, Ryan denied targeting military positions for the Syrian army and described these reports as “mistaken,” stressing that the strikes in the desert targeted the jihadists responsible for the execution of Kassig. The international coalition had previously launched several strikes against government forces in the Tanf area in the Syrian desert and in Deir Azzor governorate, east of Syria.

In the past years, the international coalition killed hundreds of ISIS members, including several leaders such as the former group spokesman Abu Mohammed al-Adnani in 2016 and two other prominent members responsible for attacks abroad such as Salah Kormat and Sami Juddo.

A coalition airstrike in 2015 killed Mohammed Amwazi, the British Jihadist known as Jihadi John, who is believed to head the ISIS execution cell known as the Beatles, which is responsible for the beheading of several foreign hostages, including the two American journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff. The coalition-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) arrested thousands of jihadists, including hundreds of foreign jihadists. In January, the SDF arrested Alexenda Koti and al-Shafee al-Sheikh, two British jihadists who were members of the Beatles.

Since 2014, the coalition has been launching airstrikes against ISIS positions in Iraq and Syria. The area that the jihadist group controls has been decreased to limited enclaves in the Syrian desert, mostly in the eastern countryside of Homs and Deir Azzor governorate in the east. The international coalition targets the last enclave under ISIS control in the eastern countryside of Deir Azzor near the Iraqi border with daily airstrikes. The SDF has been fighting battles to oust jihadists for three months. Government forces have been launching battles against ISIS pockets in the desert in the eastern countryside of Homs. However, analysts say that winning the battle against jihadists in Syria will take a long time for several reasons, the most important of which is the fighting experience that jihadists have gained and their will to fight until death in defense of their last stronghold.

 

A Candle for Syria’s Children

2 December 2018

The Vatican, 2 December 2018 (AFP).

Pope Francis lit a candle at the Vatican on Sunday for victims of conflicts around the world, and Syria in particular. “Advent is a time of hope. Right now, my hope is for peace for the children of Syria, tormented by a war that has lasted eight years,” he said. The Pope added: “I am lighting a candle along with the many Syrian children and believers across the world… Let these flames of hope dispel the shadows of war!”

The Candles for Peace in Syria Christmas initiative was launched by Aid to the Church in Need, a Catholic charity. The tall candle was decorated by a local craftsman from the Bab Touma neighborhood of Damascus and bore the photos of forty children, most of them from Aleppo. Syria’s war has killed more than three hundred and sixty thousand people and displaced millions, with over thirteen million people in the country in need of humanitarian aid.

 

Israeli Bombardment Once Again

29 November 2018

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that, on Thursday, Israeli planes launched airstrikes against targets in the countryside of Damascus as well as in locations in southern Syria, adding that Syrian air defenses fired heavily at the raiding planes. SOHR stated: “Israeli forces bombarded for an hour positions in the southern and southwestern suburbs of Damascus as well as south of Syria at the border of Quneitra governorate. Air defense systems were seen launching missiles intensely.”

Israeli sources claimed that the strikes, the first since Syria received the S-300 missile system, targeted “Iranian positions.” Damascus said that it launched rockets against “enemy targets.” Syrian official media did not initially mention Israel, describing the one-hour attack as “hostile,” and confirmed its failure.

In a letter to the UN Security Council and UN General Secretary on Friday, the Syrian Foreign Ministry condemned the “Israeli aggression” on al-Kisweh area south of Damascus. This is the first Israeli strike in Syria since Syrian air defenses mistakenly downed a Russian military plane during their response to Israeli rockets on 17 September. The SOHR chief Rami Abdul Rahman told the AFP that Israeli forces targeted “weapon depots for Hezbollah and Iranian forces” in al-Kisweh that were used to “temporarily store rockets.” He added: “It seemed that Israeli had intelligence information that new weapons arrived at the depots.”

The bombardment also targeted the area of Harfa in the governorate of Quneitra, south of Syria, which hosts a military base for the Syrian army. According to the SOHR, the Syrian air defense systems were seen launching missiles intensely in response to the Israeli bombardment and were able to down several rockets that did not reach their target. The official Syrian news agency SANA reported a military source as saying that Syrian defense systems engaged “enemy targets above al-Kisweh” in the countryside of Damascus and “downed” them, without stating the identity of the targets. SANA said that the “aggression … was not able to achieve any of its objectives despite its intensity, and all targets were engaged and downed.”

The Israeli army announced in a statement that none of its planes or “aerial targets” were hit, without confirming or denying targeting positions in Syria. The statement said that “Reports regarding an aircraft or an airborne Israeli target having been hit are false.” It said a surface-to-air missile was fired in the direction of an open area of the Syrian Golan Heights but it was unclear if it had fell in the part occupied by Israel.

The airstrikes did not result in any human casualties, according to preliminary reports from the SOHR. The Syrian foreign ministry said that the “repeated Israeli aggressions” are “further evidence of Israeli support to the armed terrorist groups in Syria and an attempt to prolong the crisis in Syria.” Since the beginning of the crisis in Syria in 2011, Israel has repeatedly bombed military targets for the Syrian army and others for Hezbollah and Iranian fighters in Iran. Israel rarely comments on its targeting of Syria, however, in September it announced that it had launched two hundred airstrikes in Syria in eighteen months against mostly Iranian targets.

An Israeli strike in May targeted a weapons depot for the Iranian revolutionary guard in al-Kisweh, according to Israel. It also targeted military positions in this area in 2017, including a weapon depot. Thursday was the first time that Syrian defense system fired on aerial targets after the 17 September incidents when this system mistakenly downed a Russian military plane during an Israeli airstrike, which killed fifteen Russian soldiers. The Russian army accused Israeli pilots of using the Russian plane as a covert to evade Syrian defenses, but Israel denied that, confirming that the Russian plane was hit after its planes had gone back to Israeli airspace.

Russia announced that it would take security measures to protect its army in Syria, including the reinforcement of Syrian air defense systems through the deployment of the S-300 system and scrambling communications for planes that come near. In October, Moscow announced that it had delivered this system to Syria, but it is unknown if the system was used in response to the attack on Thursday. Damascus said that this system would force Israel to take “precise calculations” before carrying out new strikes. Israel has reiterated that it would continue to confront what its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as Iran’s attempt to cement its military presence in Syria and send advanced weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah. Since the Russian military intervention in Syria in 2015, which immensely contributed to government forces retaking control of vast areas in the country and achieving consecutive victories, Moscow has established a “non-friction” mechanism with Israel.

 

New Ministers

29 November 2018

New ministers in the government took the constitutional oath in front of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Thursday. According to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), the new ministers are: Brigadier General Mohammed Khaled al-Rahmoun as minister of interior, Engineer Mohammed Rami Radwan Martini as minister of tourism, Imad Mowafq al-A’zeb as minister of education, Bassam Bashir Ibrahim as minister of higher education, Engineer Suhail Mohammed Abullatif as minister for public work and housing, Engineer Eyad Mohammed al-Khatib as minister of communication and technology, and Engineer Mohammed Ma’en Zein al-A’bideen Jathbah as minister of Industry.

President Assad then presided a full government cabinet meeting and talked about the priorities in the upcoming stage and the pivotal role of fighting corruption. The Syrian president made a cabinet reshuffle, on 26 November, that included nine ministers, the most prominent of which is the interior minister. According to SANA, Assad dissolved the ministry of reconciliation, which was established in 2012, and formed a public establishment of administrational nature called the National Reconciliation Establishment based in Damascus and affiliated with the prime minister. This is the third cabinet reshuffle of Prime Minister Imad Khamis’s government, who was appointed in 2016.

 

“Missed Opportunity”

29 November 2018

The UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura expressed his regret of the “missed opportunity” in the efforts to reach a political solution in Syria at the end of the Astana talk, which did not achieve progress in ending the conflict in the country. De Mistura, who announced his resignation last month, ended his term as a special envoy for peace efforts with the two day talks in Kazakhstan’s capital that saw the participation of Russia and Iran – allies of the Syrian government – and
Turkey, which supports opposition factions. A statement from his office noted he regretted that “no tangible progress in overcoming the ten-month stalemate on the composition of the constitutional committee.” It also mentioned that the meeting in Astana was “a missed opportunity to accelerate the establishment of a credible, balanced and inclusive, Syrian-owned, Syrian-led, UN-facilitated constitutional committee.”

The two-day negotiations that concluded on Thursday, are the eleventh in Astana since Moscow began a diplomatic push in early 2017 that effectively side-lined other talks on Syria led by the United Nations. The Astana process has solidified Moscow’s role, and its military intervention in the fall of 2015 allowed for the changing of the field situation in favor of the Syrian government. De Mistura leaves his position at the end of November after four years of fruitless meditation. The constitutional committee seeks to draft a new constitution for Syria, however, Damascus objected to the formation presented by the UN.

After the talks, the Russian negotiator Alexander Lavrentiev said that the committee is of “great importance,” and added: “I am pleased to say that we are getting near the desired objective,” but he did not specify any date. The talks began on Wednesday and specifically addressed the truce agreement in Idlib, the last stronghold for the opposition and jihadists in Syria, whose fate was threatened after a suspected chemical attack in Aleppo on Saturday, which prompted Russia to launch air strikes on the buffer zone near the governorate.

The air strikes on Sunday come after more than one hundred people suffered breathing difficulties in government-held Aleppo which came under bombardment with “poison gas,” according to the official Syrian media. Russia – ally of Damascus – accused “terrorist groups in the demilitarized zone of using chemical weapons that contain chlorine gas in bombarding the city of Aleppo.”

Around two months ago, Russia and Turkey reached an agreement on establishing a demilitarized zone in Idlib and its surrounding that runs 15 to 20 kilometers deep, after Damascus hinted for weeks that it would launch a wide military operation in the area, which is considered the last stronghold for opposition and jihadist factions in Syria. The demilitarized zone is located at the front lines between government forces and opposition and jihadist factions. It includes parts of Idlib governorate and areas in the western countryside of Aleppo, northern countryside of Hama, and the northeastern countryside of Lattakia.

The Russian-Turkish agreement came after the Syrian government forces regained control of over two-thirds of the country in the past three years, as a result of the Russian support. There are still two main areas that are outside government control: Idlib and its surrounding, where Turkey has influence and the areas controlled by the US-supported Kurds northeast of the country.

The Astana talks have distanced the United States and other Western country from efforts related to Syria. A joint statement by the three co-sponsors raised the issue of continued US military presence in Syria. The sponsoring countries “reject all attempts to create new facts on the ground under the pretext of fighting terrorism,” the statement said.

Earlier this week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the United States of using the presence of the Islamic State in southern Syria as a pretext to keep its forces deployed there. The United States had attended previous Astana meetings as an observer, but last week, the US Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffrey ruled out Washington’s participation in this round.

A new round of talks on Syria in Astana is expected to be held early February, according to the statement. Syria has witnessed since 2011 a destructive conflict that killed over three hundred and sixty thousand people and displaced half the population inside and outside the country.

 

“New Reality”?

3 December 2018

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Washington once again of deliberately working to “establish a new reality east of the Euphrates,” and said that US actions clearly violated the principle of Syria’s integral territory. In a press conference, Lavrov criticized western policies in Syria and said that “they do not have a strategy unlike the approach Moscow has taken.” He added: “The truth is becoming more evident as time goes by. What is happening on the eastern bank of the Euphrates river is unacceptable and will have very grave consequences.”

Lavrov said that the United States is trying to create “alternative government institutions” in these areas and has allocated millions of dollars to reconstruct these areas, but at the same time, it refuses reconstruction in areas under government control. He described what is going on east of the Euphrates as a “clear violation of Syria’s territorial integrity as declared by all and confirmed in the UN Security Council’s resolution.”

Lavrov said that “one of the main component of US policy in Syria is using the Kurdish card,” warning that this is “a very dangerous game given the sensitivity of the Kurdish issue in the region, that is not only for Syria, but also for Iraq, Iran, and Turkey.” The minister said the Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed this topic on the second day of the G20 summit and confirmed their commitment to the Russian-Turkish agreement on Idlib. “Extremist militants have not met the demand to withdraw twenty kilometers behind the demilitarized zone despite Ankara’s efforts in this regard.”

The minister said that Putin and Erdogan agreed to take future steps to ensure the implementation of the agreement to establish this zone, and thwart attempts by extremists to undermine it. Lavrov stressed that most countries now acknowledge that the Syrian constitutional committee, which is being formed through an initiative by the Astana sponsors (Russia, Turkey, and Iran), represents “the only mechanism that would allow for the implementation of UN Security Resolution 2254 which stipulates that all Syrians sit at the negotiating table.” Lavrov said that in the past years, Moscow did not see that Western powers offer any alternative constructive strategy to the “Astana process” in regards to fighting terrorism in Syria, creating conditions for the return of refugees, providing humanitarian assistance, and constructing the political process in the country.

Syria in a Week (25 June 2018)

Syria in a Week (25 June 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Portents of the Battle in the South

18-24 June 2018

Reuters

After the Syrian army’s military reinforcement in recent weeks, military operations on the southern front started, especially in al-Lajat area, and then expanded to include Dara’a city.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has promised to take back opposition controlled areas in southern Syria. On the other hand, Syrian opposition factions in the south pledged to confront any offensive carried out by government forces and their allies.

This is a rerun of the scenario in Aleppo and Ghouta, as Russia refrained from declaring its direct participation in the military operations and then declared its support for the operations carried out by the Syrian army and its allies, especially through airstrikes.

Last week, the United States warned that it would take “strict and proportional” measures in response to government violations in the “de-escalation” zone in south-west of Syria. The US Secretary of State reaffirmed the US commitment to the ceasefire in the south-west area of Syria during his meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister. However, a new development in the US position emerged as Washington informed Syrian opposition factions not to expect military support to help them confront the massive offensive by the Russian-supported government forces to retake areas in southern Syria. (Reuters)

The UN General Secretary called for an immediate end to military escalation in the south-west of Syria, his spokesman said on Friday, after government forces ramped up their attacks on areas controlled by opposition forces this week. The spokesman referred to the displacement of thousands of civilians and their movement towards the Jordanian border, and stressed that these attacks pose significant risks to regional security. (Reuters) In a statement on Thursday, the UN expressed its grave concern regarding escalations in fighting which led to the death of tens of people and the displacement of thousands. It is estimated that there are seven hundred and fifty thousand civilians in south-west of Syria. (Reuters)

A Jordanian source expressed mounting concern that the violence could spill into the country, and that the kingdom, an ally of the United States, is participating in increasing diplomatic efforts to preserve the de-escalation zone after it helped seal the agreement there.

In a related development, a commander in the pro-Assad regional coalition said that a drone was targeted by an Israeli missile when it was taking part in the Syrian army’s operations in Qunaitera Governorate near the Occupied Golan Heights. The Israeli army said that it fired an anti-aircraft Patriot missile against a drone approaching from Syria, but did not hit the target. It should be mentioned that Israel expressed its fear of Iranian or pro-Iranian forces reaching its border with Syria.

 

Manbij and Solidification of Turkey’s Role

18-24 June 2018

Reuters

Fighters from a Syrian Kurdish faction are leaving Manbij north of Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday. (Reuters) Turkish armed forces earlier said that Turkish and US forces had started independent patrols north of Syria along the line separating Turkish-controlled areas and Manbij city, in which Ankara says that the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) are deployed. Earlier this month, Ankara and Washington agreed on a road map for the withdrawal of YPG fighters from Manbij and the deployment of Turkish and US forces in the area to secure it. YPG fighters will begin to withdraw from Manbij, north of Syria, starting on 4 July and after months-long preparation, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday. (Reuters)

The decline in the US role signals a solidification of the Turkish role in northern Syria, complicating the situation between Turkey, the Syrian government, and Kurdish factions.

On Tuesday, the Syrian government condemned the Turkish and US incursion around Manbij, a day after the two countries started military patrols in the area. The Syrian government pledged to confront any foreign presence on Syrian territory. (Reuters)

The Syrian army will regain control of the northern part of the country by force if militants refuse to surrender, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in a television interview on Sunday.

“We have chosen two paths: the first and most important one is reconciliation… The second path is to attack terrorists if they don’t surrender and refuse to make peace,” Assad said in the interview. “We will fight with them (opposition fighters) and return control by force. It is certainly not the best option for us, but it’s the only way to get control of the country,” said Assad, responding to a question about the northern part of Syria where armed groups backed by Turkey hold some territory. (Reuters)

The tensions in Manbij coincide with security tensions in Raqqa where the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who hold control of the city, imposed a curfew for three days starting on Sunday and declared a state of emergency, saying that ISIS fanatics snuck into the city and were planning to carry out attacks. Reuters reported that internal security forces of the SDF set up checkpoints around the city. The SDF announced the curfew late Saturday night to take effect starting early Sunday until Tuesday. (Reuters)

 

Targeting Iraqi “Mobilization Forces”

19 & 22 June 2018

Reuters

On Tuesday, Iraq denounced airstrikes that targeted forces fighting ISIS in Iraq or Syria, after official media said that US-led coalition planes bombed a position belonging to Syrian government forces near the Iraq border, resulting in deaths and injuries. The People’s Mobilization Committee said that US bombing on the Iraqi border with Syria left twenty-two of its members dead and twelve others injured. The United States denied involvement in this attack. A statement from the Iraqi army later said that none of the People’s Mobilization Forces or any Iraqi forces in charge of securing the Iraqi-Syrian border were subject to an airstrike and that the strike took place inside Syrian territories. Although Iraqi forces have launched air strikes against ISIS positions across the border with Syria, its security forces do not have any presence on the ground, however, several factions affiliated with the People’s Mobilization Forces have supported Syrian government forces for years. (Reuters)

 

Ghouta … Medieval War

20 June 2018

Reuters

Syrian government forces and affiliated forces committed war crimes and crimes against humanity during their long siege of eastern Ghouta through heavy bombardment and “deliberate starvation” of two hundred and sixty-five thousand people, UN investigators said on Wednesday. About twenty thousand opposition fighters, some belonging to “terrorist groups”, entrenched in the besieged area and bombed nearby Damascus in attacks “that killed and maimed hundreds of Syrian civilians”, amounting to war crimes, UN invesitgators said. The latest report by the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria, led by Paulo Pinheiro, is based on one hundred and forty interviews as well as photographs, videos, satellite imagery, and medical records. The report condemned what it described a “medieval form of warfare.” The report went on to say that tactics used from February to April 2018 to recapture the enclave were “largely unlawful in nature, aimed at punishing the inhabitants of eastern Ghouta, and forcing the population, collectively, to surrender or starve.” The report said that planes bombed hospitals depriving the injured of medical care, adding: “This pattern of attack strongly suggests that pro-Government forces systematically targeted medical facilities, repeatedly committing the war crime of deliberately attacking protected objects, and intentionally attacking medical personnel.” UN experts cited evidence of chlorine gas use in Ghouta at least four times this year but said their investigation would continue. (Reuters)

 

The Tragedy of Politicized Asylum

22 June 2018

Reuters

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Friday on a visit to Lebanon that the situation in Syria is not suitable yet for the return of refugees, an issue which has led to a dispute between Lebanon’s Foreign Minister and the UN refugee agency. “We want to help find solutions in Syria so that a return of refugees can take place…we need more secure conditions for a return to be possible,” Merkel said in a news conference in Beirut with Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri.

After meeting Merkel on Friday, Lebanese President Michel Aoun said he asked for Germany to support calls “for the gradual return of displaced Syrians” from Lebanon. Aoun said on Twitter that he “stressed the need to separate between this return and a political solution for the Syrian crisis.” (Reuters)

On the Turkish side, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main rival in Sunday’s presidential elections both pledged to send Syrian refugees to their country in response to growing unease among voters about the number of migrants in Turkey. “Right after the election we aim to make all Syrian lands safe, starting from areas near our border, and to facilitate the return home of all our guests,” Erdogan said in a speech in the southeastern city of Gaziantep. He also said that two hundred thousand Syrians have already gone back to areas north of Syria controlled by Turkey and allied Syrian fighters after military campaigns to oust Kurdish fighters and ISIS fighters. (Reuters)

 

Common Ground in Geneva

19 June 2018

Reuters

Senior officials from Iran, Russia, and Turkey had “substantive” talks on Tuesday regarding the formation and function of the Syrian constitutional committee, and more talks are planned within weeks, said the UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura.

On Monday 25 June, de Mistura met with representatives from the United States, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Germany. “During the meeting, constructive exchanges and substantive discussions took place on issues relevant to the establishment and functioning of a constitutional committee, and some common ground is beginning to emerge,” a statement after the talks in Geneva said.

 

 

Syria in a Week (18 June 2018)

Syria in a Week (18 June 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

The South on Edge

12-16 June 2018

Reuters and Enab Baladi

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said that he has not taken a decision on whether the situation in southern Syria will be resolved through reconciliation or military means. “We will give way for the political process. If it does not work out, then we do not have an option other than liberating by force.”

Since last year, a “de-escalation” deal brokered by Russia, the United States, and Jordan has contained fighting to the southwest. Washington expressed its concern regarding an impending military offensive, warning of “firm and appropriate measures” in response to any violations of the ceasefire.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said that the Syrian army and its allies bombed opposition fighters in Daraa, southwest of the country, on Wednesday killing at least six people. The SOHR also said that the Syrian army bombed the towns of Kafr Shams and al-Hara, near the border with the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. (Reuters)

The Syrian government continued sending military reinforcement to Daraa. Last week, the defense minister visited southern Syria and Suhail al-Hasn arrived in Daraa, signaling the completion of preparations for military action. (Enab Baladi) In a related context, a commander in the pro-Syrian regional coalition said that the Syrian army reinforced its anti-aircraft defenses near the border with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. More defenses are scheduled for the upcoming days to “restore the air defense system against Israel.”

In recent weeks, the multi-party war in Syria shifted towards the southwest, increasing the risk for escalation in an extremely important area for Israel. The conflict was contained last year through an agreement to de-escalate brokered by the United States and Russia. (Reuters)

 

Ongoing Suffering in Idlib

11 & 17 June 2018

Reuters and Enab Baladi

The UN Regional Humanitarian Coordinator in Syria Panos Moumtzis called for ending the war and avoiding bloodshed in Idlib, which has become a refuge for tens of thousands of civilians and fighters from opposition factions after being evacuated from other areas inside Syria.

The governorate’s population is estimated around two and a half million. It has witnessed enormous security, military, humanitarian, and economic challenges with escalation in air raids. Eleven people were killed, and a hospital was targeted in an air raid on Sunday, 10 June. The military option in Idlib could be “much more complicated and brutal” than Aleppo and Ghouta, according to Moumtzis. The civilians also have no place else to go to. (Reuters)

Idlib governorate has also been experiencing chaos in the security situation for two months. It started with assassinations of military, cultural, administrative, and medical personalities, the last of which was in the city of al-Dana on Sunday, 17 June, when an unidentified armed group stormed a hospital attempting to kidnap the medical staff but eventually failed to do so. Another group stole electronic equipment from al-Dana University. Factions are exchanging accusations of responsibility for the assassinations, especially between Tahrir al-Sham and Tahrir Souria factions. (Enab Baladi)

 

Corrosion of the Self-administration … and the Negotiation Option

12 & 14 June 2018

Reuters

An agreement was reached between Turkey and the United States on a plan for the Syrian city of Manbij during a meeting in Stuttgart this week, the Turkish armed forces said. On 4 June, Ankara and Washington said that they reached a road map that provides for the withdrawal of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units’ (YPG) fighters from Manbij. (Reuters)

The negotiations show the decline in the US role in supporting the self-administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), especially after Turkey captured Afrin with the support of opposition factions. The political discourse of some Kurdish forces witnessed a change recently, with Aldar Khalil, a prominent Syrian Kurdish politician, expressing his hope that the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would be serious about negotiations with Kurdish forces, alluding to his willingness to hold talks without preconditions. (Reuters) The northeastern part of Syria seems to be at a crossroad with the potential for deterioration into military confrontations or heading for negotiations between the self-administration and the Syrian government, especially after the decline in the US role and the increase in Turkish pressure.

 

Afrin Infringement

14 June 2018

Reuters

Human Rights Watch documented how Turkey-backed rebels seized, looted, and destroyed civilians’ properties after taking control of the area in March. The UN estimates some one hundred and thirty-seven thousand people were displaced by the Afrin offensive, in another large population movement in the seven-year long Syrian conflict which has forced more than half of the country’s population from their homes. (Reuters)

Forced displacement and seizure and looting of property have been systematically used in the Syrian conflict to subjugate the local population and use the available resources to serve the economies of war. The situation of rights and property is exacerbated when confiscation and seizure of property during war are legitimized through laws such as the Anti-terrorism Law or “reconstruction laws” such as Law no. 10.

 

Staffan de Mistura … Once Again

14 June 2018

Reuters

Senior officials from Iran, Russia, and Turkey will meet in Geneva on 18 and 19 June to hold negotiations with the UN regarding the formation of a constitutional committee for Syria, the UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura said in a statement on Wednesday. The statement went on to say the de Mistura will send an invitation to other countries to hold talks related to this matter. De Mistura is commissioned with choosing the members of the committee, which is expected to reformulate the Syrian constitution, paving the way for new elections and political reform after the end of the war. De Mistura intends to meet with Russian, Turkish, and Iranian officials next week. He said that he expects a similar meeting with US, Saudi, British, French, German, and Jordanian officials on 25 June. (Reuters)

The political process in Syria has not progressed for years, and the “Geneva process” has corroded, however, UN teams and meeting have expanded as they get themselves busy “wasting time” and avoiding core issues of conflict resolution.

 

Mysterious Coalition Strikes … In the East

11 & 18 June 2018

Reuters

Fighting east of the Euphrates has intensified in recent weeks after Syrian Democratic Forces resumed their campaign against ISIS. On the other hand, the Syrian government expanded its operations in the countryside of Deir Azzor against remaining ISIS fighters. In this context, official Syrian media accused the coalition forces of carrying out an air strike on 11 June that left eighteen Iraqi refugees dead at a school in the southern countryside of al-Hasakeh governorate, however, the coalition denied the report. In a related context, Amnesty International issued a report last week in which it said that there is evidence that the US-led coalition violated international law in some of its airstrikes in Raqqa last year by putting the lives of civilians in danger. (Reuters)

US-led coalition planes bombed a military position for the Syrian army southeast of Boukamal city, which left a number of deaths and injuries, official Syrian media said once again on Monday, 18 June, but the US army denied the report. (Reuters)

 

Sarin in Latamna

14 June 2018

Reuters

Tests confirmed the use of the banned nerve agent sarin in an attack south of Latamna city, in Hama governorate on 24 March 2017, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) said on Wednesday. “Chlorine gas and nerve gas were probably used as a chemical weapon at Latamna Hospital and the surrounding area on 25 March 2017,” the OPCW added. (Reuters)

The use of chemical weapons has been documented in the Syrian war in numerous cases and led to various international reactions, the strongest of which was the US threat of a strike after accusations of using chemical weapons in Ghouta that led the Syrian government to surrender its chemical weapons to the OPCW, and the US strike against al-Shoairat airport after accusations of using chemical weapons in Khan Sheikhon, and the US, French, and British tripartite strike on the “infrastructure” for producing chemical weapons during the recent Ghouta battle this year.

 

Refugees in Lebanon

11-15 June 2018

Reuters

The escalation led by Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Basil towards the UN refugee agency UNHCR continued as he accused it of working to stop refugees from returning to Syria. The UNHCR previously denied similar accusations, saying that it supports the return of refugees when it is safe for them to go back to Syria and helps those who choose to return with their documentation. Last week, Bassil ordered a freeze on applications by the UNHCR for residency permits for its staff, saying it was intimidating refugees into staying in Lebanon. (Reuters) It is worth mentioning that Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri said that the foreign minister’s position does not reflect that of the government. It seems that some political powers want to step up calls for the rapid return of refugees to their country, but the UN says the situation is not safe yet for their return.

The international community is “dismayed by repeated false accusations” that it is working to settle Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Germany’s ambassador in Beirut Martin Huth said on Thursday. He said that the situation in Syria is not safe yet and no agreement has been reached to end the war, adding that the international community and the UN are “fully committed to an eventual return of refugees to Syria.” (Reuters)

 

 

Return to Syria: A Proposal from Syrian Refugees in Lebanon

Return to Syria: A Proposal from Syrian Refugees in Lebanon

Syrian refugees in northern Lebanon draft peace proposal to create safe return zones in Syria

As the sun sets over the sea, Abu Mohammed looks northwards to the Syrian border. We are on the mountains of Akkar, Lebanon’s most northern region; fifty kilometres away from the village where Abu Mohammed lived every day of his life until he was forced to flee in 2012. Driving down the mountain towards his new home, a huddle of tents in the middle of Akkar’s strawberry fields, Abu Mohammed sighs. “I miss Syria.”

Lebanon currently hosts the highest number of refugees per capita in the world. With refugees accounting for over twenty-five percent of its population, social, economic and political tensions are at a breaking point. Unlike in Jordan or Turkey, the construction of formal refugee camps is prohibited and most Syrian refugees and Palestinians refugees from Syria (PRS) live in substandard conditions; renting land in informal settlements, garages, unfinished buildings, sheds and even animal shelters. According to the 2017 data collected by the UN, more than seventy-five percent of Syrian refugees live below the poverty line, with the same proportion of refugees also unregistered. Unregistered refugees are unable to legally access the labour market and have little choice but to survive on exploitative labour and humanitarian aid. The constant threat of arrest and hostility from host communities exacerbates conditions.

However, refugees are not the only ones to suffer from the current situation. Most Syrian refugees and PRSs have settled in Lebanon’s most marginalised regions, placing them in direct competition for access to work, public services and resources with vulnerable Lebanese communities. Consequently, the influx of refugees is often cited as a reason for Lebanon’s stagnating economy. Equally, Lebanon’s socio-political stability rests on a precarious sectarian balance, one that could be threatened by the predominantly Sunni refugee population. Haunted by past memories of Palestinian refugees’ involvement in the country’s fifteen year long civil war, the fear that the presence of Syrian refugees could be a catalyst for instability and conflict within Lebanon is widely felt.

Speaking to representatives from the Arab League, the UN Security Council, and the EU in September 2017, Lebanon’s president Michel Aoun stated that Lebanon could not sustain the presence of Syrian refugees for much longer. “My country cannot handle it anymore”, he said, suggesting that Syrians should start returning to “calmer areas” in Syria. His words were echoed by Prime Minister Hariri a few months later. And while such words were caveated with the guarantee that Lebanon would never force returns, human rights advocates fear the possibility of indirect refoulement, whereby government-promoted hostile policies towards refugees could make living conditions for refugees so unbearable that they would be indirectly pushed to leave the country.

When a deal between Hezbollah and militant groups in Syria repatriated over three thousand Syrians last year, reports of refugees facing bombing, torture, and imprisonment provided insight into how dangerous pushing for returns can be if carried out without proper safety checks.

 

To Stay or to Go

As conditions deteriorate for Syrian in Lebanon, refugees increasingly face the difficult choice of whether to stay, despite growing hostility and hardship, or to leave. “I would love to return home.” Yara, a single mother of sixteen from Aleppo living in an informal camp in Akkar tells us. “We had a house and land and we would grow food. I love Syria. But we cannot go back, it is too dangerous now. There is no other place for me to go to.”

Reports of Jordan deporting refugees back to Syria and Turkey shooting refugees at the border are well known amongst the refugees in Akkar, meaning few desire to relocate to these places. And the chances of being resettled to Europe gets slimmer by the day. Yara’s husband tried to reach Europe via sea, but she has not heard from him since he left on a blow up dinghy in 2013. And it is not only Syrians disaffected with the regime who are caught in this conundrum. Yussef, who has served in the Syrian military, also feels that he cannot return: “I do not have any personal problems with the regime, but returning to Syria would be too risky just because of the address on my ID. I come from a certain area of Homs…that is all it would take to get me arrested.”

Nonetheless, despite the continued violence in Syria, many refugees advocate for return. “We cannot stay here forever” says Abu Mohammed, a Syrian teacher living in Akkar, “Returns need to be voluntary and carried out in areas that are truly safe. But in order to ensure that, we need to start organising ourselves now, so that when the times comes to return, we will be ready.”

Abu Mohammed worked in a school in Homs before coming to Lebanon in 2012. Today he is a key spokesperson for a proposal for peace in Syria, written by an informal network of Syrian refugees. The proposal is the product of a rare process, where Syrian refugees have found the strength and resilience to create a platform upon which they can speak for themselves about the conditions needed for return to Syria to occur in a safe and dignified manner.

The catalyst for the creation of the peace proposal was the new legislation passed by the Lebanese government in 2015, which made it harder for Syrians to renew their papers, exposing many to unemployment, arrest and detention. “It was not always like this” Khaled, a long-term intermediary for the UN, told us during an interview in Tripoli. “Before the border was open. When my first daughter was born, we had no problem registering her. But when my second girl was born last year, I had to pay thirteen hundred dollars to get  someone to register her in Syria so she did not become stateless.” With eighty-three percent of Syrian children born in Lebanon since the beginning of the crisis lacking birth registration, Khaled’s story resonates with many.

“I do not blame the Lebanese authorities when they say that the situation has reached its limit and Lebanon cannot do more than this”, said Abu Mohammed. “But Lebanon will not help us more than it is now, so we must seek alternatives.”

The network behind the proposal is made up of Syrian refugees from different confessional communities, often represented by the shawish (leaders) of camps in Akkar and the Beqaa. “The people who wrote the proposal have very diverse backgrounds and come from different places in Syria, there are teachers and farmers, mostly from Homs, but also from Damascus, Aleppo, Raqqa” Abu Mohammed told us. “It was written here in Akkar and has been slowly gathering support. We also keep in touch with people in Syria, as well as with refugee communities in Turkey and Jordan. Many call us by phone or Skype to ask what is the progress.”

The strength of Abu Mohammed’s conviction stretches well beyond his words. When he was offered the chance to travel to Europe with a humanitarian corridor he turned it down to stay with his wider family in Lebanon and to continue to run the school he had helped set up. Five hundred children from over twenty-two different refugee camps come to his school every day. “My work in the school goes hand in hand with the peace proposal. It is crucial we help ourselves over here, but this cannot be a long-term plan, we want to return to Syria as soon as we can.”

 

The Proposal

The peace proposal advocates for the establishment of safe demilitarised zones in Syria, based on Articles 14 and 15 of the IV Geneva Convention for the Protection for Civilian Persons, which sets the conditions for the establishment of neutral zones in areas of warfare. Such zones would allow for the return of refugees and displaced people.

One such zone has already been identified south of Homs, between Qusayr and Yabroud, stretching between the Lebanese border and the Homs-Damascus highway. This area is currently under the control of Hezbollah and the Syrian regime. Home to more than twenty percent of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, this region has been chosen for its proximity to the Lebanese border and its agricultural resources. The proposal for safe return areas is “beneficial for all parties” explains Abu Mohammed, “as Lebanon would guarantee its border to be open for voluntary returns to this region, and Syrians would be allowed to attempt a first return to their country.”

“One of the main reasons Syrians do not want to be in Syria today is out of fear of vengeance and of our children being arrested or drafted in the army. This fear involves everyone, even regime supporters. The strength of the proposal is one: that it speaks to all Syrian refugees”.

In a UN survey carried out in 2017, seventy percent of Syrian refugees expressed the desire to return to Syria if they felt there was somewhere safe for them to return to. “We fled from our homes in Syria because we did not want to kill or be killed. We have paid an enormous price for our freedom. We want to live with freedom and dignity, and we want to make a peaceful return to our homeland,” said Abu Rabia, a former resident of a refugee camp in Akkar, today resettled in Italy.

 

The Role of Operazione Colomba

Looking for a way to promote the proposal and gain support amongst the international community, Abu Mohammed met with Operazione Colomba, the only humanitarian organisation with a permanent presence in the camps of northern Lebanon since 2014. Strong from its protection and peace-building experience in the Peace Community of San José de Apartadó in Columbia, and in demilitarised nonviolent communities such as the village of At-Tuwan in Palestine, Operazione Colomba has gained international experience in promoting safe zones in places of protracted violence. Seeing the importance of the proposal and understanding the dangers faced by refugees who get publicly involved with politics, Operazione Colomba helped to circulate, translate and promote the proposal. Most recently, a Syrian delegation from the refugee camps has been presenting the proposal to EU officials such as the EU Vice-President and the EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini.

 

Critiques of the Proposal

However, not everybody is in favour of the idea. Interviewing a number of refugees living in Lebanon’s northern city of Tripoli, the proposal was met with many doubts; many fearing for their safety and livelihood were they to return to safe zones without a political settlement taking place first. “Without weapons?” One women laughed. “Impossible. All it takes is one rocket. And how would we live? The land is covered in mines, my home is destroyed. What would I do?”  Many refugees in Lebanon see safety and security as the first conditions to return, with access to basic services and employment opportunities also as key.

Abu Mohammed is no novice to such questions and having been previously detained in Syria, he is aware of the risks that return to Syria could entail. “We know that such a solution today seems too far-fetched and unrealistic. With the recent sieges and bombings continuing in Syria, it is difficult for anyone to speak of return. For today the proposal is impossible, but one day the violence will lessen.”

Most refugees feel trapped in a stalemate between a country that does not want them and a country to which they cannot return. To Abu Mohammed’s eyes, the proposal is a starting point to begin opening up routes to move on from such impasse, working on finding alternatives between degrading treatment abroad and war at home. “Return is key to any solution,” he insists, “and it will happen eventually.”

“This war has been long, but it will not last forever. The day it will be over, we want to be ready to return in a safe manner no matter who wins the war. Even if we will simply move in other provisional camps at first, it will be better to live in a camp in our own country than here.”

 

Other Opinions

Lorenzo Trombetta, a Middle East expert based in Beirut, was consulted when the proposal was at its embryonic stages. The first time Operazione Colomba told me about the proposal I was very skeptical. But after learning more about their work they do in Akkar, I took a more listening attitude.”  Trombetta does not see the feasibility of truly safe zones being established in the near future. “For most of the actors in Syria, the idea of safe zones is more a strategy to further political and military goals rather than a method of civilian protection.” With the failure of past de-escalation zones all too present, Trombetta warns of the difficulty of disconnecting zones of safety with zones of influence and the future demarcations of post-war Syria. “No safe zone can be established without first reaching a political settlement with the government and its allies. You may find statements of solidarity amongst EU institutions, but they are unlikely to act unless they believe it to benefit their diplomacy in Lebanon.” As demonstrated at the international conference recently held in Rome, international diplomacy in Lebanon is mostly concerned with anti-terrorism securitization and stability. “The Western consensus towards Lebanon is to keep it as the bench outside the football pitch, make sure Syrian refugees can survive and wait without spilling over towards European borders.”

Those behind the proposal are only too used to the hollow promises of politicians, but they also hope that with support from EU countries, local players would be more likely to take the proposal seriously. Alex, a member of Operazione Colomba who has lived in the camp for over two years, acknowledges the risk that regional actors might try to use the idea of humanitarian zones to further their own political ends. “There is a lot that will have to be negotiated and that will depend on what happens in the near future. But on the core tenants of the proposal we cannot negotiate: on the need of security, food, healthcare, and the request of dignity Syrian people want back.”

Whilst Trombetta believes that any true safe zone could not exist in the near future, he does not deny the possibility completely. “Operazione Colomba and the Syrians who wrote the proposal are working at the forefront of what the current situation allows.” He concedes that while keeping nuance against misinterpretations of the proposal advocating for an unsafe return, there is a need to start working on the idea of safe return zones in advance and to start from social inclusion. “Remember to look beyond the national borders on maps.” He points out how the triangle formed by the cities of Homs, Tartus, and Tripoli is a very resourceful and interconnected socio-economic area, gravitating the north of Lebanon closer to Syria than to the more politically and economically distant Beirut. Roots of support for the proposal could grow from the re-establishment of local economic activities through projects of social inclusion and cohesion between Syrians in Akkar and their communities of reference in Syria. “We need to aid the construction of a socio-economic context that can precede the physical return of refugees in the foreseeable future.”

International aid organisations have expressed concerns that such a proposal is premature and that establishing safe zones would risk supporting efforts of forced returns from Lebanon where basic security conditions are far from being met. When asked to comment, the International Red Cross replied stating that any return should be done in a safe, dignified, and informed manner in accordance to international humanitarian law, and that such conditions have been currently met on the ground.

Many points remain unclear in the safe zones proposal, such as issues of governance, mobility, and access. When facing such questions Alex replies that the Syrians involved in the proposal, alongside Operazione Colomba, are constantly evaluating details in accordance with the evolving situation. “When we are asked about the details of the proposal, we often say that it is like asking a child who they want to be when they grow up. We cannot know now how safe zones will form, it is too early and it will always depend on which interlocutor we will face the day we will sit down and discuss. But it is still important to ask the question, to spur imagination and the will to change this situation.”

For the millions of Syrian refugees surviving in rapidly deteriorating conditions, there are not many alternatives. This is why for those behind the proposal, working for the establishment of safe return zones is not more unrealistic than a scenario in which millions of refugees stay endlessly in a foreign land.

 

Conclusion

Caught between the growing hardships of displacement and premature conditions for return, Syrian refugees in Lebanon have to walk the fine line between advocating for safe and dignified return whilst careful not to fuel excuses for coerced refoulement.

“Why are the representatives of the forces destroying our country the only ones sitting at the negotiating table?” asks Abu Mohammed, as he mends a leak in his tent. “Refugees are treated as if their only role is to run away from war, becoming powerless victims begging for help. We want to show you how far is this from reality.”

In the midst of growing escalation in Syria, the peace proposal, coming from civilian refugees, provides an example of what wars too often leave out: the voices of those who refuse violence. Against all odds, a group of Syrians are trying to launch a message of peace, taking concrete steps towards a proactive involvement in negotiations. Notwithstanding the necessity of a political settlement to be found in Syria to bring war and violence to a halt, refugees want to part-take in the process. They are asking for the ear of the international community not to fall deaf to their call.

 

المَوقف من إسرائيل والتشويش المستمرّ

المَوقف من إسرائيل والتشويش المستمرّ

ظَهرت تطورات في الفترة الأخيرة بينها زيارة معارضين لإسرائيل وحصول مقاتلين على اغاثة ومعالجة الجرحى. وقد اسقطُ النظام، ومن خلفه إيران، طائرة اسرائيلية، عقب قصف لمواقع تخصّ إيران ضمن الأراضي السورية. ما أعقب ذلك من ردود فعل، أظهر حجم التشوّش الحاصل على المستوى الشعبي، وعلى مستوى النخب إلى حدّ ما، تجاه الموقف من إسرائيل. هناك من رفضه باعتبار إسرائيل عدوّاً، وعلينا أن نفرح لإسقاط طائرتها، وهو موقف إعلام النظام المأزوم بالضبط، الذي استغلّ الحدث ليؤكد لمؤيديه بأّنه ما يزال متمسكاً بـ “التصدي للمؤامرة الصهيونية” وأنّه في موقع قوّة واستطاع الرّد أخيراً! هذا الموقف، أي الفرح لإسقاط طائرة العدو، لا قيمة له، لأنه يتهرب من واقع أنّ الحادثة هي جزء من مناوشات إيرانية – إسرائيلية على الأرض السورية.  آخرون يعتبرون أن لا شأن لهم بالاعتداءات الإسرائيلية، وأن إسرائيل وإيران عدوّان، بل إيران هي الأكثر خطراَ، بسبب مشاركتها النظام في قتل السوريين.

على كلّ حال، أعتقد أن الموقف السوري الشعبي ما يزال يعتبر إسرائيل عدوّاً استراتيجياً؛ لكنّ خمسين سنة من حكم البعث القمعيّ، ومصادرته كلّ المبادرات الوطنية الممكنة، حوّلت هذا الرفض الشعبي لإسرائيل إلى مجرّد شعار، بعد أن كانت القضية الفلسطينية هي البوصلة لكلّ العرب، وبعد أن كان الشبّان والشابّات يتزاحمون للتطوّع في أجنحة المقاومة، وكانوا فدائيين يضحّون بأرواحهم لأجل فلسطين.

حضور خجول في التظاهرات

اتّسمت الانتفاضة السورية منذ اندلاعها في آذار (مارس) 2011 بكونها شعبية، غير مؤدلجة وغير حزبية، رغم محاولة التيارات المختلفة، الديمقراطية والإسلامية، سرقتَها. الشعار السياسي الوحيد الذي برز هو مطلب إسقاط النظام، ورحيلُ الرئيس وعائلته. ومن هنا كانت الشعارات والأهازيج تتحدث عن مساوئ هذا النظام وعمالته وفساده؛ فحضرت مسألة الجولان من هذا الباب، أي من باب نعت النظام بأنه فرّط بالجولان لمصلحة تثبيت حكمه، وبأنه عاجزٌ عن الردّ على الاعتداءات الإسرائيلية المتكررة: (باع الجولان، عميل إسرائيل، ممانع بالثرثرة، خود كلابك عالجولان…) والكثير من الشعارات ورسومات الكاريكاتير التي تحمل هذا المضمون.

الانتفاضة السورية لم تكن معنية بتخصيص حيّز لمسألة تحرير الأراضي العربية، كما أنّها لم تخصّص حيّزاً للمسائل الأخرى، كشكل الحكم، وقضايا الفساد، والنمط الاقتصادي الملائم، ومعالجة المسألة الطائفية والمسألة القومية…إلخ، بسبب افتقارها إلى دور فاعل للمثقفين المنخرطين في الثورة. لكن بالتأكيد هناك استثناءات، كتنظيم “الشباب السوري الثائر” الذي كان يتظاهر في ركن الدين والصالحية بدمشق، والذي قام النظام بتصفية جزءٍ من قياداته في المعتقل، وتهجير البقية، وقد رفع شعارات سياسية أكثر وضوحاً: (من أجل تحرير الجولان نريد إسقاط النظام، تعليم مجاني، دولة مدنية علمانية، دولة المواطنة، فرص عمل للجميع…).

دور فلسطينيي سوريا

منذ بداية الثورة السورية، شارك الفلسطينيون السوريون فيها. بالتأكيد القضية الفلسطينية حضرت بقوة في التظاهرات الأولى للتجمعات الفلسطينية الشعبية في مخيم اليرموك، والتي كانت ضدّ احتجاز النظام للرغبة الفلسطينية الشعبية بتحرير الأرض والعودة، وحينها أطلق النظام يد “أحمد جبريل” القيادي في الجبهة الشعبية لتحرير فلسطين، والموالي للنظام، لقمع تلك الاحتجاجات. وبعدها شارك الفلسطينيون في التظاهرات، كأفراد إلى جانب السوريين، وساهموا في تقديم الدعم والإغاثة، ومنهم من شارك في العمل المسلح ضمن كتائب الجيش الحر.

وبالتالي لم يتمكن الفلسطينيون من المشاركة في الثورة كتجمعات كبيرة، يمكنها ترسيخ المسألة الفلسطينية ضمن شعاراتها، وفضّلوا المشاركة إلى جانب السوريين، لإسقاط النظام بوصفه، كما بقية الديكتاتوريات العربية، معيقاً لحق الفلسطينيين في النضال للعودة إلى أرضهم.

تطبيع وانتهازية

تمّ تصفية الانتفاضة السورية بالعنف والتدمير والتهجير من قبل النظام، خاصة للكوادر الناشطة والمثقفة. أتمّت الفصائل الإسلامية، التي سيطرت على مناطق المعارضة بعد 2013، دور النظام في قمع ومصادرة الثورة. أمّا المعارضة التي في الخارج، أو بالأدق التي تعمل لمصلحة الدول الإقليمية والعظمى، أملاً في أن تعينَهم على إسقاط النظام، فكان دورها في المسألة الوطنية سلبياً، بل يمكن القول أنّ دورَها انتهازياً، حيث ظهر توجّهٌ لدى الكثير منها بقبول التطبيع مع إسرائيل، كما أسلفنا أعلاه، رغم الرفض الشعبي لذلك، بل هي تستغل الضعف الشعبي وحالة التشتت السوري، والإنهاك بسبب كثافة القتل، وكثافة عدد الجرحى والمعطوبين، والعدد الكبير الذي يعيش في ظروفٍ يرثى لها في مخيمات النزوح على الحدود، في الأردن ولبنان وتركيا، تستغل كلّ ذلك لتمرير ثقافة القبول بإسرائيل، وبعلاقات طبيعية معها. فتطمين إسرائيل بات ضرورياً بالنسبة لهؤلاء، أي المعارضين السوريين، حيث المحيط العربي يتوجّه إلى التطبيع معها، على مستوى الحكومات، وليس الشعوب.

في ضوء هذا الزخم من العلاقات المشبوهة مع إسرائيل، لاشك ان جميع كيانات المعارضة السياسية في الخارج، من “الائتلاف الوطني السوري” و”هيئة تنسيق الوطني” و”الهيئة العليا للمفاوضات” ومنصّات وتيّارات معنيّة بمناقشة ما يحدث، وإصدار مواقف نهائية، لا لبث فيها، تجاه قضية التعامل مع إسرائيل. وغير ذلك، قد يحملها البعض مسؤوليّة بعض الاطراف والقوى.

الأيديولوجيا والقضية

منذ إعلان وعد بلفور في 1917، كان الموقف العربي الشعبي الرافض له جلياً، واستمر كذلك مع إعلان قيام “دولة” إسرائيل العنصرية 1948، وإعلانها عن نواياها التوسّعيّة “من الفرات إلى النيل”، وقيامها بقضم الأراضي الفلسطينية، وتهجير أهلها، وتوسعها إلى الجولان السوري وجنوب لبنان والضفة الغربية وسيناء بعد 1967.

بدأت حينها تتشكل بذور مقاومات فلسطينية للاحتلال الإسرائيلي، وتهافت الشبان العرب من أقصى المشرق إلى أقصى المغرب للتطوع دفاعاً عن فلسطين. وتطورت تلك الحركات، وتحولت إلى قوىً سياسية وعسكرية فرضت نفسها وشروطها على الصراع العربي الإسرائيلي.

حينها كان الشعور القومي العربي والشعبي في أقصاه، وصعود الرغبة القومية العربية للتمسك بالهوية الوطنية التي رافقت حركات التحرر العربية ضد الاستعمار الغربي. كانت تلك الرغبة العربية العفوية بتحقيق التحرر والتقدم وطنية النوايا وغير عنصرية، لكنها أيضاً حماسيّة وتفتقد إلى الخبرة السياسية، لذلك دعمت الأحزاب القومية الناشئة، وعلّقت آمالها عليها. هذه الأحزاب أدلجت القومية العربية، أي أطّرتها في وعيها السياسي، الذي بالضرورة يسعى إلى المشاركة في الحكم، أو استلامه.

طرح حزب “البعث” شعارات وطنية وتقدمية، واستفاد من الحماس الشعبي، خاصّة في مؤسسة الجيش، واستلم السلطة، وكان يمتلك كلّ مقوّمات الحفاظ عليها. الطبقة البرجوازية في المدن الكبرى، كانت “رثّة”، بسبب تبعيتها، وهو حالها في كل الدول العربية الكولونيالية، وبالتالي كانت عاجزة عن حمل المشروع الوطني أو القومي وتحرير الأرض وحل المسألة الزراعية وإشادة الثورة الصناعية، وتحقيق الاستقرار. حزب البعث تمكّن من حل بعض القضايا، وزرع في شعاراته القومية والاشتراكية الأمل في نفوس الشعب السوري، ذي الغالبية الريفية، في تحقيق الارتقاء والتقدم الاجتماعي عبر التوظيف والتعليم والطبابة المجانية، وكذلك في رفع شعار تحرير فلسطين، بوصفه حزباً عربياً.

انتهت الصراعات الداخلية ضمن الحزب بتولي الأسد للحكم، وإحكام سيطرته على الجيش وتفريغ شعارات البعث من مضامينها، وجعلها في خدمة بقائه في الحكم. ومن هنا استفاد من الاجتياح الإسرائيلي للجولان عام 1967. وفي 1973 شن “حرب تشرين التحريرية”، التي وضعت تسويةً نهائية للصراع. ليتوقف نشاط السوريين ضد إسرائيل، ويتحول إلى شعارات تتجسّد بإظهار الولاء للنظام باعتباره “المقاوم” و “الممانع”. وبذلك “احتجز” النظام السوريين، والفلسطينيين المقيمين في سوريا، ومنع عنهم أي محاولة للنضال ضدّ إسرائيل، بل وتدخّل في لبنان، وضرب المقاومة الفلسطينية، فيما عرف بمجزرة “تل الزعتر”.

الحركات المتطرفة وإسرائيل

المنطق الجهادي عدميّ، أي لا يفهم الصراع إلا بأنّه إفناء للآخر، الكافر بالضرورة، وبالتالي هو لا يحمل تصوّراً واضحاً لأهداف صراعه مع الكيان الإسرائيلي، سوى بإلغاء أي تواجد لليهود الإسرائيليين عن أرض فلسطين، أي مقابلة العنصرية بمثلها، وإقامة حكمها الخاصّ تحت مسمّى تطبيق الشريعة. حماس أقامت سلطتها الدينية القمعية في غزة، وعزّزتها بحجة أنها تقاوم إسرائيل، وهي إلى جانب مثيلاتها، الجهاد الإسلامي وكتائب عز الدين القسام، لا تفعل غير إطلاق صواريخ عشوائية، قد تقتل مدنيين من دون أن تحقق أهدافاً سياسية كبيرة. حزب الله في لبنان فعل المثل، لكن لمصلحة تعزيز نفوذه في لبنان على الصعيد المحلّي، وهو ليس إلا أداة بيد إيران، تحت مسمّى المرجعية الدينية، تضغط على إسرائيل لتحقيق بعض النفوذ في المنطقة، وإيران غير معنية بحل الصراع العربي الإسرائيلي، بل معنية باستغلاله فقط لتحقيق أطماعها التوسعية الطائفية.

رفض التطبيع

مشكلتنا مع إسرائيل أنها محتلّة للأراضي الفلسطينية، وأنها دولة عنصرية لليهود، ولها أطماع توسعيّة مُعلنة، وهي ماضية في إنشاء المزيد من المستوطنات في الأراضي الفلسطينية؛ هكذا هي الإيديولوجيا التي أُنشِئَت على أساسها، وبالتالي هي لن تعترف بحقوق الفلسطينيين، وتريد من دول المنطقة الاعتراف بها وقبولها، والقبول بتهويد القدس. وما تقوم به الحكومات العربية من سياسات التطبيع معها هو أمر لا يقبله عقل أو منطق.

وبالتالي حرية الشعوب العربية من براثن الديكتاتوريات، هو الخطوة الأولى الممكنة الآن، ولن يتحقق الاستقرار والتقدم في المنطقة دون حلّ مسألة الصراع مع إسرائيل. والحل ليس على طريقة الحكومات او الذين يريدون التطبيع معها، وليس على طريقة الجهاديين الذي يريدون إفناء من فيها. الأمر يحتاج إلى نضال منظم، ومقاومة حقيقية تطرح فكرة حلّ الدولتين أولاً، وفي المرحلة اللاحقة إقامة دولة فلسطينية على أساس المواطنة، تضم العرب واليهود.