Syria in a Week (4 –10 December 2018)

Syria in a Week (4 –10 December 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

Northern Syria Between Turkey and the United States

7 December 2018

(Reuters)

The Turkish-US working committee on Syria said on Friday that the two countries agreed to speed up efforts to put in place an agreement on Manbij, in the countryside of Aleppo, by the end of the year. Turkey and the United States reached the deal on Syria’s Manbij this year after months of disagreement, under which the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) is to withdraw from the city. Ankara, which considers the YPG a terrorist organization, says that the withdrawal has not happened yet. During a meeting on Friday, the two sides also agreed to continue joint work with regard to other areas, as mentioned in the Manbij roadmap. The official Anadolu news agency said that Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar told the US Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffrey that the United States should give up on building observation points in Syria.

Last month, the United States Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said that his country is setting up “observation posts” along parts of the border between Turkey and Syria to help keep the focus on defeating ISIS in Syria. However, Turkey has expressed unease with the plans and has been angry at US support for the YPG, which is a main ally in the fight against ISIS.

 

More Eliminations

9 December 2018

A former leader in the Free Syria Army (FSA), Mashhour al-Kanakri, was shot dead by unidentified gunmen in Da’el, in the countryside of Daraa on Sunday. According to Enab Baladi website, two unidentified gunmen shot al-Kanakri while he was in Da’el and he was killed instantly. Government forces did not comment on his death and no one has claimed responsibility for the assassination. Al-Kanakri was from the city of Da’el and held a leadership role in al-Jabha al-Janobieh Brigade (The Southern Front), which was affiliated with the FSA, before he settled his status and joined the government forces in July.

In Afrin, one person was killed and several others were injured on Sunday 9 December, after an explosive device was detonated in a car for the Sultan Murad Brigade, which is affiliated with the FSA and stationed in the town of Bolbol in Afrin countryside. This is the second explosion of its kind in one week, according to Enab Baladi, after another explosive device was detonated in one of the brigade’s car in the al-Mahmodieh district of Afrin, which left one person dead and another injured. No one claimed responsibility for this explosion either. This incident comes two days after the YPG declared the deaths of members of the Turkish army and the FSA, after targeting their positions in Afrin.

 

SDF Progressing

9 December 2018

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said that it has gained new territory from ISIS in the Hajjin area in the countryside of Deir Azzor. The SDF stated that its forces were able to advance two kilometers and deploy thirty posts in al-Baghoz and deploy thirty-five new posts after repelling fierce ISIS attacks. On the other hand, the ISIS new agency Amaq said that the group’s fighters targeted a gathering of SDF fighters with a guided missile in the village of al-Bahra, east of Hajjin. SDF has been engaged in military operations with the support of the international coalition to control the Hajjin pocket in the countryside of Boukamal, east of the Euphrates. In the last two days, the US-led international coalition’s airplanes have intensified their airstrikes against Hajjin, the last stronghold for the group.

 

ISIS Executions

5 December 2018

(Reuters)

The UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet said on Wednesday that the UN has reports of ISIS executing people who are perceived as cooperating with opposition fighters in Deir Azzor governorate in eastern Syria.

Speaking to a news conference in Geneva, Bachelet voiced deep concerns for seven thousand civilians who she said were in a trapped situation by the Islamic State fighters, which has prevented them from leaving Deir Azzor and the effects of the air strikes by the US-led coalition. She explained: “we also have reports of ISIS executing people perceived as cooperating with the SDF or other parties to the conflict,” adding that civilians were being used as “pawns and bargaining chips” in the conflict.

 

Attack on Damascus Airport?

9 December 2018

(Reuters and Enab Baladi)

The official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) issued a report on Sunday saying that the Syrian air defenses had intercepted enemy targets around Damascus international airport, but later in the day SANA said that the attack had not happened. In its initial report the agency said: “our air defenses intercepted enemy aerial targets in the vicinity of Damascus international airport in southern Damascus.” The agency later removed the report from its website. Still, it quoted later a source at the Damascus international airport as saying “there was no attack on the airport and the air traffic is normal.” However, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) declared that there had been firing near the airport. Several explosion sounds were heard in Damascus suburbs as air defenses were launched close to the airport, according to the SOHR.

Al-Ikhbarieh al-Sourieh, an official TV news channel, started its live coverage of the bombing near Damascus at ten in the evening, only to abruptly stop afterwards. Damascus Now network said that, the vicinity of Damascus airport and military positions south of Damascus, were subject to “unidentified” bombardment. Voice of the Capital network also mentioned preliminary information that confirms the targeting of a recently built depot in the vicinity of Damascus airport. Israel did not comment on the bombardment, a policy taken in several bombing events of military positions in Syria in recent months. These latest events come one week after a rocket attack that targeted Syrian government military positions in al-Kisweh, in the western countryside of Damascus, and southern Syria.

 

North Korea and Syria

4 December 2018

Officials said that Syria and North Korea’s foreign ministers met in Damascus on Tuesday and thanked each other for their support during years of international isolation. The Foreign Minister of North Korea Ri Yong Ho thanked Walid al-Moualem for Syria’s opposition to economic sanctions on Pyongyang, according to Syria’s foreign ministry. Moualem said Syria was grateful for North Korea’s support in international forums. UN monitors say the relationship has gone deeper than diplomacy and accused North Korea in February of cooperating with Syria on chemical weapons–a charge North Korea had denied.

Israel in 2007 bombed a suspected nuclear reactor in eastern Syria which it said was being constructed with help from North Korea and had been months away from activation. Syria, a signatory of the 1970 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, has always denied that the site was a reactor or that Damascus engaged in nuclear cooperation with North Korea. Both countries have faced international isolation, North Korea over its nuclear weapons program, and Syria over its nearly eight-year-old civil war.

 

Pressure on Refugees

6 December 2018

The Lebanese General Security announced a campaign to close violating shops that are owned or managed by Syrian citizens. The campaign includes various areas only in Akkar governorate, where the General Security is carrying out inspections of institutions and shops owned by Syrians, according to the state-run National News Agency.

In February of 2017, the Labor Ministry issued a decree stipulating conditions for Syrians to open investment projects in Lebanon. Under the decree, a Syrian project owner must have two or more Lebanese sponsors, in addition to paying due taxes. If the shop is small, the decree stipulates that the shop owner must employ a Lebanese citizen, in addition to paying taxes.

This decree led to the closure of tens of shops in various Lebanese governorates because their owners were not able to adhere to the required conditions. The Lebaneses constantly complain about competition from Syrian refugees in the labor market, and have repeatedly demanded that their commercial shops be closed.

 

Failure of the Return

7 December 2018

(Enab Baladi and Daily Star)

The Ministry of State for Refugee Affairs said that the Russian plan to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees to Syria cannot be implemented from a practical standpoint. In a statement to the Daily Star on Friday 7 December, Minister Mouin al-Merehbi said that Russia does not have the capability to implement the plan because it did not and will not provide the necessary guarantees to encourage refugees to return. Merehbi added that the Russian plan has stalled, but Moscow did not officially acknowledge that.

In July, Russia announced a plan for the return of Syrian refugees to their country, saying that under the plan 1.7 million refugees would go back. Since then, Russia has sought to mobilize international support for its plan, however, it was faced with international refusal, especially after the European Union said that Syria “is not safe yet” for refugees to return.

Although Lebanon was one of the first countries to welcome the Russian plan, Merehbi statements indicate the failure of its implementation in Lebanon. Several Lebanese officials held meeting with Russian officials to discuss the implementation of the plan in Lebanon. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri asked his counselor for Russian affairs to communicate with Russian officials to understand the details of the suggestions announced by Moscow. A Lebanese official close to the Russian initiative said the government vacuum in Lebanon has hampered the Russian plan in the country.

Syria in a Week (25 June 2018)

Syria in a Week (25 June 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Portents of the Battle in the South

18-24 June 2018

Reuters

After the Syrian army’s military reinforcement in recent weeks, military operations on the southern front started, especially in al-Lajat area, and then expanded to include Dara’a city.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has promised to take back opposition controlled areas in southern Syria. On the other hand, Syrian opposition factions in the south pledged to confront any offensive carried out by government forces and their allies.

This is a rerun of the scenario in Aleppo and Ghouta, as Russia refrained from declaring its direct participation in the military operations and then declared its support for the operations carried out by the Syrian army and its allies, especially through airstrikes.

Last week, the United States warned that it would take “strict and proportional” measures in response to government violations in the “de-escalation” zone in south-west of Syria. The US Secretary of State reaffirmed the US commitment to the ceasefire in the south-west area of Syria during his meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister. However, a new development in the US position emerged as Washington informed Syrian opposition factions not to expect military support to help them confront the massive offensive by the Russian-supported government forces to retake areas in southern Syria. (Reuters)

The UN General Secretary called for an immediate end to military escalation in the south-west of Syria, his spokesman said on Friday, after government forces ramped up their attacks on areas controlled by opposition forces this week. The spokesman referred to the displacement of thousands of civilians and their movement towards the Jordanian border, and stressed that these attacks pose significant risks to regional security. (Reuters) In a statement on Thursday, the UN expressed its grave concern regarding escalations in fighting which led to the death of tens of people and the displacement of thousands. It is estimated that there are seven hundred and fifty thousand civilians in south-west of Syria. (Reuters)

A Jordanian source expressed mounting concern that the violence could spill into the country, and that the kingdom, an ally of the United States, is participating in increasing diplomatic efforts to preserve the de-escalation zone after it helped seal the agreement there.

In a related development, a commander in the pro-Assad regional coalition said that a drone was targeted by an Israeli missile when it was taking part in the Syrian army’s operations in Qunaitera Governorate near the Occupied Golan Heights. The Israeli army said that it fired an anti-aircraft Patriot missile against a drone approaching from Syria, but did not hit the target. It should be mentioned that Israel expressed its fear of Iranian or pro-Iranian forces reaching its border with Syria.

 

Manbij and Solidification of Turkey’s Role

18-24 June 2018

Reuters

Fighters from a Syrian Kurdish faction are leaving Manbij north of Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday. (Reuters) Turkish armed forces earlier said that Turkish and US forces had started independent patrols north of Syria along the line separating Turkish-controlled areas and Manbij city, in which Ankara says that the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) are deployed. Earlier this month, Ankara and Washington agreed on a road map for the withdrawal of YPG fighters from Manbij and the deployment of Turkish and US forces in the area to secure it. YPG fighters will begin to withdraw from Manbij, north of Syria, starting on 4 July and after months-long preparation, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday. (Reuters)

The decline in the US role signals a solidification of the Turkish role in northern Syria, complicating the situation between Turkey, the Syrian government, and Kurdish factions.

On Tuesday, the Syrian government condemned the Turkish and US incursion around Manbij, a day after the two countries started military patrols in the area. The Syrian government pledged to confront any foreign presence on Syrian territory. (Reuters)

The Syrian army will regain control of the northern part of the country by force if militants refuse to surrender, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in a television interview on Sunday.

“We have chosen two paths: the first and most important one is reconciliation… The second path is to attack terrorists if they don’t surrender and refuse to make peace,” Assad said in the interview. “We will fight with them (opposition fighters) and return control by force. It is certainly not the best option for us, but it’s the only way to get control of the country,” said Assad, responding to a question about the northern part of Syria where armed groups backed by Turkey hold some territory. (Reuters)

The tensions in Manbij coincide with security tensions in Raqqa where the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who hold control of the city, imposed a curfew for three days starting on Sunday and declared a state of emergency, saying that ISIS fanatics snuck into the city and were planning to carry out attacks. Reuters reported that internal security forces of the SDF set up checkpoints around the city. The SDF announced the curfew late Saturday night to take effect starting early Sunday until Tuesday. (Reuters)

 

Targeting Iraqi “Mobilization Forces”

19 & 22 June 2018

Reuters

On Tuesday, Iraq denounced airstrikes that targeted forces fighting ISIS in Iraq or Syria, after official media said that US-led coalition planes bombed a position belonging to Syrian government forces near the Iraq border, resulting in deaths and injuries. The People’s Mobilization Committee said that US bombing on the Iraqi border with Syria left twenty-two of its members dead and twelve others injured. The United States denied involvement in this attack. A statement from the Iraqi army later said that none of the People’s Mobilization Forces or any Iraqi forces in charge of securing the Iraqi-Syrian border were subject to an airstrike and that the strike took place inside Syrian territories. Although Iraqi forces have launched air strikes against ISIS positions across the border with Syria, its security forces do not have any presence on the ground, however, several factions affiliated with the People’s Mobilization Forces have supported Syrian government forces for years. (Reuters)

 

Ghouta … Medieval War

20 June 2018

Reuters

Syrian government forces and affiliated forces committed war crimes and crimes against humanity during their long siege of eastern Ghouta through heavy bombardment and “deliberate starvation” of two hundred and sixty-five thousand people, UN investigators said on Wednesday. About twenty thousand opposition fighters, some belonging to “terrorist groups”, entrenched in the besieged area and bombed nearby Damascus in attacks “that killed and maimed hundreds of Syrian civilians”, amounting to war crimes, UN invesitgators said. The latest report by the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria, led by Paulo Pinheiro, is based on one hundred and forty interviews as well as photographs, videos, satellite imagery, and medical records. The report condemned what it described a “medieval form of warfare.” The report went on to say that tactics used from February to April 2018 to recapture the enclave were “largely unlawful in nature, aimed at punishing the inhabitants of eastern Ghouta, and forcing the population, collectively, to surrender or starve.” The report said that planes bombed hospitals depriving the injured of medical care, adding: “This pattern of attack strongly suggests that pro-Government forces systematically targeted medical facilities, repeatedly committing the war crime of deliberately attacking protected objects, and intentionally attacking medical personnel.” UN experts cited evidence of chlorine gas use in Ghouta at least four times this year but said their investigation would continue. (Reuters)

 

The Tragedy of Politicized Asylum

22 June 2018

Reuters

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Friday on a visit to Lebanon that the situation in Syria is not suitable yet for the return of refugees, an issue which has led to a dispute between Lebanon’s Foreign Minister and the UN refugee agency. “We want to help find solutions in Syria so that a return of refugees can take place…we need more secure conditions for a return to be possible,” Merkel said in a news conference in Beirut with Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri.

After meeting Merkel on Friday, Lebanese President Michel Aoun said he asked for Germany to support calls “for the gradual return of displaced Syrians” from Lebanon. Aoun said on Twitter that he “stressed the need to separate between this return and a political solution for the Syrian crisis.” (Reuters)

On the Turkish side, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main rival in Sunday’s presidential elections both pledged to send Syrian refugees to their country in response to growing unease among voters about the number of migrants in Turkey. “Right after the election we aim to make all Syrian lands safe, starting from areas near our border, and to facilitate the return home of all our guests,” Erdogan said in a speech in the southeastern city of Gaziantep. He also said that two hundred thousand Syrians have already gone back to areas north of Syria controlled by Turkey and allied Syrian fighters after military campaigns to oust Kurdish fighters and ISIS fighters. (Reuters)

 

Common Ground in Geneva

19 June 2018

Reuters

Senior officials from Iran, Russia, and Turkey had “substantive” talks on Tuesday regarding the formation and function of the Syrian constitutional committee, and more talks are planned within weeks, said the UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura.

On Monday 25 June, de Mistura met with representatives from the United States, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Germany. “During the meeting, constructive exchanges and substantive discussions took place on issues relevant to the establishment and functioning of a constitutional committee, and some common ground is beginning to emerge,” a statement after the talks in Geneva said.

 

 

Syria in a Week (18 June 2018)

Syria in a Week (18 June 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

The South on Edge

12-16 June 2018

Reuters and Enab Baladi

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said that he has not taken a decision on whether the situation in southern Syria will be resolved through reconciliation or military means. “We will give way for the political process. If it does not work out, then we do not have an option other than liberating by force.”

Since last year, a “de-escalation” deal brokered by Russia, the United States, and Jordan has contained fighting to the southwest. Washington expressed its concern regarding an impending military offensive, warning of “firm and appropriate measures” in response to any violations of the ceasefire.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said that the Syrian army and its allies bombed opposition fighters in Daraa, southwest of the country, on Wednesday killing at least six people. The SOHR also said that the Syrian army bombed the towns of Kafr Shams and al-Hara, near the border with the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. (Reuters)

The Syrian government continued sending military reinforcement to Daraa. Last week, the defense minister visited southern Syria and Suhail al-Hasn arrived in Daraa, signaling the completion of preparations for military action. (Enab Baladi) In a related context, a commander in the pro-Syrian regional coalition said that the Syrian army reinforced its anti-aircraft defenses near the border with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. More defenses are scheduled for the upcoming days to “restore the air defense system against Israel.”

In recent weeks, the multi-party war in Syria shifted towards the southwest, increasing the risk for escalation in an extremely important area for Israel. The conflict was contained last year through an agreement to de-escalate brokered by the United States and Russia. (Reuters)

 

Ongoing Suffering in Idlib

11 & 17 June 2018

Reuters and Enab Baladi

The UN Regional Humanitarian Coordinator in Syria Panos Moumtzis called for ending the war and avoiding bloodshed in Idlib, which has become a refuge for tens of thousands of civilians and fighters from opposition factions after being evacuated from other areas inside Syria.

The governorate’s population is estimated around two and a half million. It has witnessed enormous security, military, humanitarian, and economic challenges with escalation in air raids. Eleven people were killed, and a hospital was targeted in an air raid on Sunday, 10 June. The military option in Idlib could be “much more complicated and brutal” than Aleppo and Ghouta, according to Moumtzis. The civilians also have no place else to go to. (Reuters)

Idlib governorate has also been experiencing chaos in the security situation for two months. It started with assassinations of military, cultural, administrative, and medical personalities, the last of which was in the city of al-Dana on Sunday, 17 June, when an unidentified armed group stormed a hospital attempting to kidnap the medical staff but eventually failed to do so. Another group stole electronic equipment from al-Dana University. Factions are exchanging accusations of responsibility for the assassinations, especially between Tahrir al-Sham and Tahrir Souria factions. (Enab Baladi)

 

Corrosion of the Self-administration … and the Negotiation Option

12 & 14 June 2018

Reuters

An agreement was reached between Turkey and the United States on a plan for the Syrian city of Manbij during a meeting in Stuttgart this week, the Turkish armed forces said. On 4 June, Ankara and Washington said that they reached a road map that provides for the withdrawal of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units’ (YPG) fighters from Manbij. (Reuters)

The negotiations show the decline in the US role in supporting the self-administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), especially after Turkey captured Afrin with the support of opposition factions. The political discourse of some Kurdish forces witnessed a change recently, with Aldar Khalil, a prominent Syrian Kurdish politician, expressing his hope that the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would be serious about negotiations with Kurdish forces, alluding to his willingness to hold talks without preconditions. (Reuters) The northeastern part of Syria seems to be at a crossroad with the potential for deterioration into military confrontations or heading for negotiations between the self-administration and the Syrian government, especially after the decline in the US role and the increase in Turkish pressure.

 

Afrin Infringement

14 June 2018

Reuters

Human Rights Watch documented how Turkey-backed rebels seized, looted, and destroyed civilians’ properties after taking control of the area in March. The UN estimates some one hundred and thirty-seven thousand people were displaced by the Afrin offensive, in another large population movement in the seven-year long Syrian conflict which has forced more than half of the country’s population from their homes. (Reuters)

Forced displacement and seizure and looting of property have been systematically used in the Syrian conflict to subjugate the local population and use the available resources to serve the economies of war. The situation of rights and property is exacerbated when confiscation and seizure of property during war are legitimized through laws such as the Anti-terrorism Law or “reconstruction laws” such as Law no. 10.

 

Staffan de Mistura … Once Again

14 June 2018

Reuters

Senior officials from Iran, Russia, and Turkey will meet in Geneva on 18 and 19 June to hold negotiations with the UN regarding the formation of a constitutional committee for Syria, the UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura said in a statement on Wednesday. The statement went on to say the de Mistura will send an invitation to other countries to hold talks related to this matter. De Mistura is commissioned with choosing the members of the committee, which is expected to reformulate the Syrian constitution, paving the way for new elections and political reform after the end of the war. De Mistura intends to meet with Russian, Turkish, and Iranian officials next week. He said that he expects a similar meeting with US, Saudi, British, French, German, and Jordanian officials on 25 June. (Reuters)

The political process in Syria has not progressed for years, and the “Geneva process” has corroded, however, UN teams and meeting have expanded as they get themselves busy “wasting time” and avoiding core issues of conflict resolution.

 

Mysterious Coalition Strikes … In the East

11 & 18 June 2018

Reuters

Fighting east of the Euphrates has intensified in recent weeks after Syrian Democratic Forces resumed their campaign against ISIS. On the other hand, the Syrian government expanded its operations in the countryside of Deir Azzor against remaining ISIS fighters. In this context, official Syrian media accused the coalition forces of carrying out an air strike on 11 June that left eighteen Iraqi refugees dead at a school in the southern countryside of al-Hasakeh governorate, however, the coalition denied the report. In a related context, Amnesty International issued a report last week in which it said that there is evidence that the US-led coalition violated international law in some of its airstrikes in Raqqa last year by putting the lives of civilians in danger. (Reuters)

US-led coalition planes bombed a military position for the Syrian army southeast of Boukamal city, which left a number of deaths and injuries, official Syrian media said once again on Monday, 18 June, but the US army denied the report. (Reuters)

 

Sarin in Latamna

14 June 2018

Reuters

Tests confirmed the use of the banned nerve agent sarin in an attack south of Latamna city, in Hama governorate on 24 March 2017, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) said on Wednesday. “Chlorine gas and nerve gas were probably used as a chemical weapon at Latamna Hospital and the surrounding area on 25 March 2017,” the OPCW added. (Reuters)

The use of chemical weapons has been documented in the Syrian war in numerous cases and led to various international reactions, the strongest of which was the US threat of a strike after accusations of using chemical weapons in Ghouta that led the Syrian government to surrender its chemical weapons to the OPCW, and the US strike against al-Shoairat airport after accusations of using chemical weapons in Khan Sheikhon, and the US, French, and British tripartite strike on the “infrastructure” for producing chemical weapons during the recent Ghouta battle this year.

 

Refugees in Lebanon

11-15 June 2018

Reuters

The escalation led by Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Basil towards the UN refugee agency UNHCR continued as he accused it of working to stop refugees from returning to Syria. The UNHCR previously denied similar accusations, saying that it supports the return of refugees when it is safe for them to go back to Syria and helps those who choose to return with their documentation. Last week, Bassil ordered a freeze on applications by the UNHCR for residency permits for its staff, saying it was intimidating refugees into staying in Lebanon. (Reuters) It is worth mentioning that Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri said that the foreign minister’s position does not reflect that of the government. It seems that some political powers want to step up calls for the rapid return of refugees to their country, but the UN says the situation is not safe yet for their return.

The international community is “dismayed by repeated false accusations” that it is working to settle Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Germany’s ambassador in Beirut Martin Huth said on Thursday. He said that the situation in Syria is not safe yet and no agreement has been reached to end the war, adding that the international community and the UN are “fully committed to an eventual return of refugees to Syria.” (Reuters)

 

 

صفقة منبج تختبر الحلفاء

صفقة منبج تختبر الحلفاء

يشكل تنفيذ خريطة طريق معقدة لمدينة منبج شمال سوريا اختباراً لاستعادة الثقة بين أميركا وتركيا، بعد فترة من البرود وتراكم ملفات شائكة بين البلدين، ما سمح لموسكو بالتوغل عبر شقوق فقدان الثقة بين شريكين في «حلف شمال الأطلسي» (ناتو).

كما أن المضي قدما في «الخريطة»، قد يشكل إشارة إلى احتمال تعرض «وحدات حماية الشعب» الكردية لـ«خيانة» جديدة من الأميركيين الذي يوفرون الحماية للأكراد شرق نهر الفرات، بعدما تعرضوا لشيء مماثل، لدى موافقة روسيا بداية العام على دخول الجيش التركي وفصائل سورية معارضة إلى عفرين، وإخراج «الوحدات». أو على الأقل، خفض سقف توقعات قيادات كردية.

بحسب المعلومات المتوفرة لـ«الشرق الأوسط»، فإن خريطة الطريق بين واشنطن وأنقرة تنص على العناصر الآتية: تشكيل دوريات أميركية – تركية في أطراف منبج، وخروج «الوحدات» من المدينة إلى شرق نهر الفرات، وتعزيز دور مجلس منبج العسكري، وتشكيل مجلس مدني للمدينة، وعودة النازحين العرب والأكراد إلى أماكنهم الأصلية.

وكانت هذه الخريطة خلاصة رغبة من وزير الخارجية الأميركي السابق ريكس تيلرسون، ومستشار الأمن القومي السابق هاربر ماكماستر، للبحث عن قواعد مشتركة مع حليف أميركا في «حلف شمال الأطلسي» (ناتو)، لكن خروجهما من الإدارة الأميركية في مارس (آذار) الماضي أدى إلى بطء التنفيذ، إضافة إلى خلاف أميركي – تركي حول تسلسل تنفيذ الخريطة، بين تركيز واشنطن على ضرورة بناء الثقة وتشكيل الدوريات، مقابل تركيز أنقرة على البدء بإخراج «الوحدات» من منبج ونزع سلاحها الثقيل.

وبعد جلسات مكثفة من المفاوضات، صاغ كبار المسؤولين العسكريين والدبلوماسيين في البلدين مسودة خريطة منبج، التي أقر خطوطها العامة الوزيران مايك بومبيو ومولود جاويش أوغلو، في واشنطن مساء أول من أمس.

لكن بمجرد الإعلان عنها، بدأ يطفو إلى السطح اختلاف القراءتين الأميركية والتركية. إذ إن أنقرة تريد بدء تنفيذ الخطة خلال عشرة أيام وفق برنامج زمني صارم يتضمن مواعيد خروج «الوحدات»، وتسليم سلاحها، وتسلم مجلس منبج العسكري، وتشكيل المجلس المدني، مقابل قول واشنطن إن البرنامج الزمني «إرشادي»، ويتوقف تنفيذ كل مرحلة على مدى نجاح المرحلة السابقة، أي رهن عودة الثقة الأميركية – التركية، وبرود السخونة بين «الوحدات» وأنقرة؛ خصوصاً بعد تعرض «الوحدات» لمفاجأة روسية بالتخلي عن عفرين.

وقال قيادي في «الوحدات» الكردية لـ«الشرق الأوسط» أمس، إن «الوحدات» لم يكن لديها هدف السيطرة منذ دحر تنظيم داعش منها في نهاية 2016، وإن «قوات سوريا الديمقراطية» التي تضم «الوحدات» ويدعمها التحالف الدولي، دعمت مجلس منبج العسكري وتشكيل مجلس مدني فيها.

وعقد في الساعات الماضية اجتماع بين التحالف ومجلس منبج العسكري؛ لكن «الوحدات» تبلغت من الأميركيين الأسبوع الماضي نتائج المحادثات الأميركية – التركية في أنقرة، وصوغ مسودة الاتفاق. وأوضح القيادي أمس: «كان لدينا نحو 300 مقاتل من الوحدات، لكن العدد خفض تدريجيا، ولم يبق سوى مستشارين، وعددهم نحو 30 مستشاراً، وهم عملوا على تدريب مجلس منبج العسكري الذي يضم بين 5 و6 آلاف مقاتل. بالتالي، فإن المستشارين سينسحبون إلى شرق الفرات للمشاركة في معارك إنهاء (داعش) بمجرد انتهاء الحاجة إليهم في منبج».

وتوقع القيادي أن تكون المرحلة الأولى من تنفيذ الخطة (الخريطة)، تشكيل دوريات أميركية – تركية للسير في خطوط التماس بين «مجلس منبج العسكري» في ريف المدينة وفصائل «درع الفرات» التي يدعمها الجيش التركي بين حلب وجرابلس على حدود تركيا. وأضاف: «لا بد من الهدوء واستعادة التوازن ونوع من الثقة، للمضي في تنفيذ المرحلة الثانية من الخطة»، ما يعني سحب المستشارين من «الوحدات» الكردية.

بعدها، ينتقل التركيز لصالح «مجلس منبج العسكري» ونقل الإدارة إلى المجلس المدني الذي يضم أهالي المدينة وبعض الشخصيات من أصول كردية، إضافة إلى عودة النازحين العرب والأكراد إلى أرضهم. وقال القيادي في «الوحدات»: «لا نريد السيطرة على أي منطقة. بالعكس برنامجنا هو القضاء على (داعش) ومساعدة الأهالي المحليين في تسلم القيادة بأنفسهم ضمن مشروعنا لسوريا اللامركزية، وهذا ما سيحصل في منبج».

وتزامن إعلان الاتفاق مع زيارة رئيس «حركة التجديد الوطني» عبيدة النحاس، ورئيس «حزب سوريا المستقبل» إبراهيم القفطان إلى منبج بعد الرقة. ولاحظ مشاركون في الزيارة تراجع دور «الوحدات» خلال الأشهر الثمانية الماضية، مقابل تمكين الأهالي ومجلس منبج العسكري و«هذا يعزز مشروع اللامركزية على حساب الفيدرالية» التي كان أكراد اقترحوها نموذجا لسوريا قبل سنتين.

بالنسبة إلى أنقرة، وفاء واشنطن بتنفيذ هذا الاتفاق يكون بداية لاستعادة ثقة مفقودة بسبب موقفها من محاولة الانقلاب في أنقرة، واستضافة فتح الله غولن، واستمرار واشنطن في دعم وتسليح «الوحدات» شمال شرقي سوريا. وقال مصدر تركي: «واشنطن لم تلتزم وعودها مرات عدة في السنوات الماضية. وعدت بتسليم الرقة لأهلها بعد تحريرها من (داعش)، ولم تفعل، بل شاهدنا صور عبد الله أوجلان (زعيم حزب العمال الكردستاني الذي تصنفه أنقرة إرهابيا). وعدت بسحب السلاح الثقيل من الوحدات بعد دحر (داعش) ولم تفعل، بل أقامت نحو 20 قاعدة عسكرية».

وبحسب المصادر الدبلوماسية، فإن تنفيذ خطة منبج سيكون اختبارا لإمكانية عودة الثقة بين حليفين في «ناتو» ومدى إمكانية ابتعاد الرئيس رجب طيب إردوغان عن الرئيس فلاديمير بوتين، الذي يراهن على تعزيز الشرخ داخل «ناتو» والمضي في بيع منظومة صواريخ «إس – 400» إلى الجيش التركي، الذي يجري اتصالات مع واشنطن للحصول على تكنولوجية عسكرية عالية.

Syria in a Week (19 February 2018)

Syria in a Week (19 February 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.


“Useful Syria” with United States and its Allies

14 February 2018

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said at the end of the Ministerial Meeting of the Global Coalition against ISIS in Kuwait that the United States and its allies control thirty percent of Syrian territories and oil fields. The total area of Syria is one hundred and eighty-five thousand square kilometers.

“We are very active in the discussions that are moving, all the talk toward Geneva. There are efforts to unify the opposition,” Tillerson said and added: “We are working very closely with Russia, who has the greatest influence on the Assad regime and can bring Assad and the regime to the negotiating table in Geneva in order to reach a unified Syria.”

This coincided with the meeting of fifteen defense ministers, representing countries in the Global Coalition, in which they discussed continuing their joint action. The US Defense Minister James Mattis talked about the need to reinstate public services in areas in eastern Syria, where ISIS has been driven out by Syrian Democratic Forces backed by the United States.

On the other hand, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned against “dangerous unilateral measures” taken by the United States in eastern Syria, saying that these measures “threaten the unity of the country.”

Fuss over Russian “Mercenaries”

14 February 2018

A fuss has risen in Moscow after leaks about units of ‘Russian mercenaries’ fighting alongside Syrian government forces in Syria coming under fierce attack on the night of 8 February, near the city of Deir al-Zour and US forces, which resulted in a great number of deaths.

Phone conversations made by survivors of the “massacre” were leaked, in which they described the details of the surprise attack and its consequences. They strongly criticized Russian authorities who “avoided even mentioning this disaster, as if we are not humans.”

According to media reports, the leaks came from Ukraine where “colleagues” of the “Russian mercenaries” are active in the ongoing battles, within the so-called Wagner Army, which is comprised of informal armed formations that pay good salaries in exchange for carrying out special military operations.

Details of the participation of this army alongside government forces in battles that sought to control oil positions in Syria were widely circulated. This army was strongly active in the Ukrainian war alongside Ukrainian separatists backed by Moscow. The Russian government does not formally recognize the presence of a ‘special army’ in Syria, and does not usually incorporate its losses in official Russian military losses.

In three of the phone conversations made by survivors of the US bombardment with their friends, the callers talked about the details the occurred that night.

It is worth mentioning, that a short time before the conversations were leaked, Russian volunteers in Ukraine created some chaos on the ‘tragedy’ their colleagues suffered in Syria.

The Kremlin said it had no information about reports of the killing of Russian mercenaries in Syria, and that it only knows of the presence of individuals from Russian armed forces.

 

Turkish Post in Idlib

16 February 2018

Turkish forces have established a new ‘observation post’ in the governorate of Idlib, according to government media reports.

The official Anatolia news agency said the post, a center with a small number of soldiers deployed to monitor clashes, is seventy kilometers away from the Turkish border in the Syrian governorate situated northwest of the country.

The news agency added that a Turkish military convoy crossed the Turkish-Syrian border. The post was established in the town of Ma’ret al-No’man, southeast of Idlib.

This is the sixth such post in the governorate, after the Turkish army established two other posts this month, in addition to three other posts previously established in October and November.

Turkish military convoys have come under attacks, including one in February resulting in the death of one soldier.

 

Afrin and Manbij

17 February 2018

Features of international/regional understandings to divide northern Syrian have started to emerge, in which US-Turkish forces are deployed in the town of Manbij, in exchange for a Russian-supported ‘symbolic presence’ of Syrian government forces in the town of Afrin.

Talks were held between the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and Damascus to reach a deal stipulating “the symbolic entrance of Syrian government forces and security institutions to central Afrin.” This coincided with the regime allowing Kurds to demonstrate in Damascus against the Turkish operation, holding pictures of the leader of the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocallan, who was arrested nineteen years ago after being expelled from Damascus according to an understanding with Ankara. The PKK has been considered a terrorist organization ever since.

This coincided with an understanding between Ankara and the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on the deployment of Turkish-US forces in Manbij to kick out the YPG to east of the Euphrates.

 

The Ghouta of Damascus: The End of the De-escalation

18 February 2018

Eastern Ghouta has witnessed a race between negotiations to reach an agreement and a military resolution that government forces have prepared for by mobilizing forces of Brigadier Suhail al-Hasan, a.k.a The Tiger.

According to media sources close to government forces, massive military reinforcements led by the renowned Brigadier Suhail al-Hasan have arrived at the outskirts of eastern Ghouta near Damascus.

Sources told the German news agency that the reinforcements came from Idlib countryside to an area called Tal Kurdi in the northern part of Ghouta to launch a wide-scale attack on armed opposition positions in eastern Ghouta.

Government forces, backed by Syrian and Russian jetfighters, have stepped up their bombardment of eastern Ghouta last week, leading to more than one thousand and five hundred deaths and injuries.

In a reference to the upcoming ground operation, the Russian Reconciliation Center in Hmeimim Airbase announced that Moscow “will support the ground movement of government forces in the de-escalation zone in eastern Ghouta to eliminate al-Nusra Front in case peaceful means fail to achieve that.”