بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | يونيو 26, 2019 | Syria in a Week, غير مصنف
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Appeal for Calm in Idlib
Reuters
18 June 2019
UN chief Antonio Guterres appealed to Russia and Turkey on Tuesday to stabilize northwest Syria “without delay.” UN aid chief Mark Lowcock said that some hospitals were not sharing their locations with the warring parties because that “paints a target on their back.”
Russia and Turkey co-sponsored a de-escalation pact for the area that has been in place since last year. But the deal has faltered in recent months, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians to flee.
“I am deeply concerned about the escalation of the fighting in Idlib, and the situation is especially dangerous given the involvement of an increased number of actors… even in the war on terrorism, there should be full compliance to international law on human rights and international humanitarian laws,” Guterres told reporters.
Lowcock told the UN Security Council later on Tuesday that since late April the World Health Organization had confirmed twenty-six incidents affecting healthcare facilities in northwest Syria. He said two of the facilities were located in areas controlled by the Syrian government. “Hitting a facility whose coordinates were shared as part of the UN’s deconfliction system is simply intolerable. A number of partners now feel that supplying geographical coordinates to be given to the warring parties effectively paints a target on their backs,” he said.
The UN was reconsidering its deconfliction system and would inform the Security Council next week of its conclusions, Lowcock added.
Avoiding Confrontation with Turkey
Reuters
18 June 2019
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said that Syria does not want to see fighting with Turkey after the latter said one of its observation posts in Idlib was attacked from an area controlled by the Syrian government forces.
“We hope that our military and the Turkish military do not fight. This is our principled stance,” Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem told reporters in Beijing, standing alongside the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. “What we are fighting is terrorists, especially in Idlib, which is a Syrian territory, and part of our country,” al-Moualem said.
The dominant force in the Idlib region is Tahrir al-Sham, which was previously known as Nusra Front that was part of al Qaeda until 2016. Others, including some with Turkish backing, also have a presence.
“The question now is, what is Turkey doing in Syria? Turkey is occupying part of Syrian soil, and has a military presence in certain parts of Syria,” al-Moualem added. “Are they protecting the Nusra Front? Are they protecting certain terrorist forces including the East Turkestan Islamic Movement?” he added, referring to an extremist group China blames for attacks in far western Xinjiang with operations elsewhere.
“This question needs to be asked of Turkey, what are their actual aims? We are fighting those terrorist groups and organizations. The whole world believes those people we are fighting are terrorists,” he added.
Since April, Syrian government forces have stepped up shelling and bombing of the area, killing scores of people. The opposition says the government action is part of a campaign for an assault that would breach the de-escalation pact. The government and its Russian allies say the action is in response to rebel violations, including the presence of fighters in a demilitarized zone.
China has long urged that a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian civil war be found and has hosted Syrian government and opposition figures. Wang said that China will continue to support Syria to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity and fight against terror, and will help with Syria’s economic reconstruction efforts.
Explosions in the Eastern Countryside of Aleppo
Enab Baladi
23 June 2019
Three explosions were reported in the opposition-controlled eastern countryside of Aleppo in the last twenty-four hours, killing and injuring civilians and military personnel. An explosive device went off as it was being dismantled in the city of al-Bab in the eastern countryside of Aleppo last night. The explosive device was planted in an SUV for Failaq al-Sham. The explosion killed two members of the engineering and police teams of the National General Security.
This was preceded by a motorcycle bomb on the Raii road in the northern side of al-Bab on Saturday, which injured fifteen civilians including two children. In the city of Jarablus, which is under the control of the ‘National Army’, a motorcycle bomb exploded in the city center on Saturday, injuring a number of civilians and causing material damage. The cities and towns of the northern and eastern countryside of Aleppo have repeatedly witnessed explosions caused by explosive devices and motorcycle bombs, killing civilians and military personnel, in addition to vast material damage. The majority of the explosions occurred near popular markets and civilian gatherings.
Opposition factions accused the People’s Protection Units (YPG) of carrying out these explosions. Whereas the YPG accused opposition factions of smuggling explosive devices into the areas they control.
Law of Military Conscription in the Self-Administration
Enab Baladi
23 June 2019
The Self-Administration in northeast Syria indorsed a conscription law dubbed the “Self-Defense Law,” which contains thirty-five articles identifying the conditions for service in its military forces. The official website for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the military arm of the Self-Administration, said on Saturday that the general council in the administration “indorsed the law of the Self-Defense duty and the rules of procedure for the defense office.” The new law for military service includes thirty-five provisions that stipulate the terms for the service, postponement, and exemption, in addition to all laws in regard to those subject to conscription in the Self-Administration areas. The council set the period for compulsory service at twelve months. All males between the ages of eighteen and forty are subject to this law.
The Self Defense law obliges individuals in the Self-Administration areas to join the military and security forces to defend areas under its control and the border, just like compulsory service in regular armies. The law stipulates that those subject to compulsory service are the ones who have reached the legal age, resided in that area for more than five years, and hold Syrian citizenship, in addition to foreigners and those who do not possess birth certificates. In regards to women, the new law allowed them to join the duty of self-defense on a voluntary basis, according to the statement.
The new law is part of a series of political and military procedures taken by the Self-Administration in the areas it controls, months after eliminating the influence of the Islamic State in those areas with support from the US-led international coalition.
US-Iranian Escalation
Reuters
22, 24 June 2019
United Nations chief Antonio Guterres warned on Sunday that it is essential to avoid “any form of escalation” in the Gulf as tensions continue to rise following the shooting down of an unmanned US drone this week by Iran. “The world cannot afford a major confrontation in the Gulf… Everybody must keep nerves of steel,” Guterres said on the sidelines of a world conference.
Iran said on Saturday it would respond firmly to any US threat amid escalating tension between Tehran and Washington over the shooting down of an unmanned US drone by Tehran. An Iranian missile destroyed a US Global Hawk surveillance drone on Thursday. Tehran said that the drone was shot down over its territory, whereas Washington said the incident happened in international airspace.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday he called off a military strike to retaliate because it could have killed one hundred and fifty people, and signaled he was open to talks with Tehran.
Speaking in Washington on Saturday before heading to the US presidential retreat at Camp David, Trump said the US government was imposing new sanctions on Tehran. “We are putting additional sanctions on Iran,” Trump told reporters. “In some cases we are going slowly, but in other cases we are moving rapidly.”
Military action was “always on the table,” the president added, but he said he was open to reversing the escalation and could quickly reach a deal with Iran that he said would bolster the country’s flagging economy.
بواسطة Lizzie Porter | أكتوبر 6, 2017 | Cost of War, غير مصنف
“After months of defeats, Syria’s opposition is trying to unite under the umbrella of a national army to fight pro-government forces. But internal divisions, the geographic distribution of rebel groups and involvement of foreign powers undermine its chance of success.
BEIRUT, LEBANON – Dozens of Syrian opposition groups merged last month to form a unified army, at a time when rebel factions are increasingly divided and have suffered a string of defeats at the hands of pro-government and extremist forces.
Led by the opposition’s interim government in exile, the Unified National Army (UNA) aims to boost opposition forces both on the ground and in negotiations at the eighth round of peace talks set to start within the next month. However, experts and analysts warn that the move is not likely to alter the dynamics of a war that is now tilted in Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s favor.
Since January, rebel factions have lost territory to pro-government forces around Damascus, in the central Syrian province of Homs, and in southern Syria along the border with Jordan. In Idlib, the only opposition-held province in Syria, al-Qaida-linked militants have overtaken many Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated groups.
The U.S. recently ended its support for rebels and, along with Saudi Arabia, allegedly told the opposition to accept that Assad will remain in power. Even the U.N.’s special envoy to Syria has questioned whether the Syrian opposition would “be able to be unified and realistic enough to realize they did not win the war.”
The Unified National Army
The Turkey-based Syrian Interim Government (SIG) and the Syrian Islamic Council (SIC), a group of Syrian Muslim clerics, proposed the merger in late August, and within a week, more than a dozen groups had joined, according to AFP.
Overall troop numbers are not available, but at least 44 FSA groups operating mostly in Aleppo and Idlib province have signed up to the UNA – including the Levant Front, 13th Division, Mutasim Brigade and the Nasr Army.
Two FSA factions in southeastern Syria have also signed up, but the Southern Front, a coalition of some 50 FSA groups based in Daraa and Quneitra provinces, said they want to see signs that the UNA will, in fact, be unified, before joining.
“We are waiting to see some productive steps, and if the brigades in the north really commit to the national army and take it seriously before we take a position on the initiative,” a Southern Front leader told Syria Deeply, requesting anonymity.
Jaish al-Islam, a hard-line militant group with a strong base in the Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus, has also joined. As has Ahrar al-Sham – which was one of the strongest rebel groups in Idlib before the al-Qaida-linked Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) recently seized its positions.
In an attempt to give the force a real military structure, the SIG has sought to create a defense ministry that would preside over the UNA’s operations. They have also appointed Salim Idris, a defected Syrian army general, as chief of staff and General Mohammad Faris, also a defector, as defense minister.
The group’s funding has yet to be officially announced, but opposition delegates met with Qatar’s foreign minister in Doha last month, as part of a series of visits to “friendly and sisterly countries,” according to Nizar Haraki, the Syrian opposition’s ambassador to Qatar.
Jawad Abu Hatab, prime minister of the SIG, told Syria Deeply the opposition forces already had money. Better organization, rather than external funding, would be key to its success.
Objectives
The UNA has both military and diplomatic objectives, Abu Hatab said. Militarily, the UNA would form “one command” to help deploy the opposition’s military skills more effectively, he said.
“When we create a command that includes all of the opposition factions, we will have central decision making and we can use this power in the best way,” he said.
“We can develop them [the factions] from militias into a regular army that has a leader, and rules, and knows its rights and duties,” he said.
Diplomatically, military cohesion will help the opposition put up a united front at peace talks held in Geneva and Astana.
“The army will give some weight to the opposition, so it will be stronger in negotiations and impose its respect on the international community,” he said.
But even if the armed rebels unite, the opposition is still divided in its approach to resolution. Some elements insist Assad must step down as part of a peace deal, while others are more flexible about other solutions that would bring an end to the conflict.
Major Ahmed al-Hassan Abu al-Mundhir, head of the UNA’s political bureau, is part of the former. He insists that “toppling the criminal regime” is among the main aims of his fighting force.
Timing
Although SIG officials maintain that the idea of unified army dates back to at least 2015, Kyle Orton, an analyst at the Henry Jackson Society think-tank, said the suspension of covert CIA aid to U.S.-allied rebel groups and HTSdominance over Idlib are “important factors in having made this [the creation of the unified army] possible.”
Orton said that initiative also partially stems from the opposition’s need to differentiate itself from extremist elements such as al-Qaida and the so-called Islamic State.
“Previously, the rebels, for very good practical (not ideological) reasons, were averse to openly adopting an antagonistic position toward HTS,” he explained. “That is not less of a concern and instead, both politically and militarily, there is more incentive for rebels to differentiate themselves from HTS.”
However, by positioning itself against HTS, the UNA could run the risk of a fatal confrontation.
“Whether the [Unified] National Army could or would stand up to HTS is an open question,” Orton said. “If HTS demonstrates quickly, it can attack the [Unified] National Army without incurring collective rebel and/or Turkish reprisals, then the whole idea falls.”
The new rebel coalition will likely be focused on northern Syria and would be backed by Turkey, he added. Ankara has yet to comment publicly on the project.
“The [Unified] National Army would be in its essentials a Turkish-backed enterprise,” Orton said. “There might well be some funding from Qatar.”
Rebel Divisions
According to Sam Heller of the Century Foundation, the initiative “won’t be seen as a major new vehicle for support and influence.”
For Heller, this is partially because the idea of a single rebel army does not take into account the geographic distribution of the opposition in Syria.
Having lost their major stronghold of Aleppo last December, remaining rebel territory is divided into patches in Syria’s south, southeast and northwest. This makes the prospect of unification untenable.
The FSA-linked Martyr Ahmed al-Abdo brigades and Lions of the East are a prime example of this. Both groups have agreed to form part of the UNA.However, their bases are far out east in the Badia desert near the Iraqi border in areas isolated from rebel-held territory.
“There is a reality of a fragmented regional opposition versus an opposition united in principle,” Heller said.
For Fares al-Bayoush, a former officer with the FSA-linked Free Idlib Army, the UNA’s lack of military expertise, in comparison to that of the Syrian army, condemns it to failure.
“A military more than 50 years old is different from … an army still in its infancy,” he told Syria Deeply.
He also expressed skepticism over the possibility that rebel groups could unite under one umbrella, given the opposition’s history of divisions.
Divisions within Syria’s opposition groups are potentially the greatest roadblock for the success of the deal. Jaish al-Islam, for example, has been heavily involved in rebel infighting in Eastern Ghouta, primarily with FSA group Faylaq al-Rahman, over territorial control in the besieged area. Even within the FSA, there have been divisions throughout the conflict over coordination with Salafi rebel groups who extol more hard-line religious ideologies, such as Ahrar al-Sham.
“I have no intention of participating in this project,” Bayoush, who was a member of the opposition’s military delegation at the Astana talks in January, said. “The participants in the project lack seriousness, and it represents a repeat of previous errors, and it lacks longevity.”
Even Syrian civilians who have recently taken to the streets in protest, calling on the opposition to protect them from extremist elements, are not convinced that the UNA will work.
Qusay al-Hussein, from Maarat al-Numan in Idlib province, said, “[The UNA] is not expected to succeed, because at its most basic level it is not a national army: It is an army following foreign agendas, not national ones.”
[This article was originally published by Syria Deeply]
