Syria in a Week (18 – 25 March 2019)

Syria in a Week (18 – 25 March 2019)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

End of the “Caliphate”

25 March 2019

Dozens of ISIS fighters surrendered on Sunday to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) after they came out of tunnels they were hiding in inside the town of al-Baghouz, as the SDF declared the complete elimination of the “caliphate”.

The Kurdish self-administration warned on Sunday that ISIS’s danger persists, with thousands of foreign fighters and their families being held inside SDF detention centers and camps and its ability to mobilize sleeper cells.

Several countries around the world hailed the declaration of the elimination of the caliphate, after the group was stripped off of all territories it once controlled. The SDF leadership along with its US-led international coalition ally announced the start of a new phase of the war to eliminate the group’s sleeper cells.

In the remote town of al-Baghouz east of Syria, where the final confrontation against ISIS took place, dozens of men were seen standing in line to board several pickup trucks. Some of them had long beards and some were wearing the traditional woolen robes and kuffiyas on their heads, while others had their faces covered.

“They are ISIS fighters who came out of tunnels and surrendered today,” Kurdish spokesman Jiaker Amed said without specifying numbers. “Some others could still be hiding inside,” Amed added.

An AFP team saw plumes of black smoke rising from the camp on Sunday; Amed said they came from burning ammunition depots that belonged to ISIS.

The camp, which is filled with tunnels and fallen tents, looked like a scrap yard littered with burnt cars, kitchen utensils, water bottles, and gas cylinders.

The international coalition spokesman said that SDF forces will continue to comb the area in search of jihadists and potential weapons caches.

“This back-clearance operation will be deliberate and thorough and help ensure the long-term security for the area,” the spokesman said on Twitter.

Head of the foreign relations in the Kurdish self-administration in Syria Abdel Karim Omar said, “We eliminated the state of ISIS, which is a major accomplishment, however, this does not mean that we have eliminated ISIS as an organization.”

“There are thousands of fighters, children, and women from fifty-four countries, not including Iraqis and Syrians, who are a serious burden and danger for us and for the international community,” Omar said.

The SDF estimates that during their military advances and operations, which were repeatedly paused to allow for the exit of those besieged, more than sixty-six thousand people left the ISIS pocket, including five thousand jihadists who were arrested, while others managed to escape.

Among those leaving is a large number of the jihadists’ family members, many of whom are foreigners. They were transferred to three camps in northeastern Syria, the most prominent of which is al-Hol camp, designed to accommodate twenty thousand people but now hosts more than seventy-two thousand people, including twenty-five thousand school-aged children.

“There are thousands of children who have been raised according to ISIS ideology,” Omar said. “If these children are not re-educated and re-integrated in their societies of origin, they are potential future terrorists,” he added.

According to Save the Children, there are more than three thousand and five hundred foreign children from thirty countries in the three camps.

The issue of foreign jihadists and their families has burdened the Kurdish self-administration, which called on their countries of origin to repatriate them and have them face justice on their territories. However, Western countries seem to be reluctant because of security concerns and fear of public backlash after deadly attacks adopted by the radical group. A small number of countries, including France, showed interest in taking back some of the children.

After eliminating the ISIS “caliphate,” Kurds fear that Washington will move on with its plan to withdraw troops from northern Syria, thus they would become a target for an offensive threatened by Turkey.

Ankara sees the SDF as a terrorist organization and fears they might cooperate with Kurdish insurgents inside Turkey. Omar warned that any cross-border offensive risked leading to mass breakouts from the jails where jihadists are currently held. “There should be coordination between us and the international community to confront this danger,” he added.

The US presence has dampened Ankara’s thrust and prevented Damascus from launching an attack to take back control of their territories. US President Donald Trump announced at the end of last year that he was going to withdraw all two thousand troops from Syria, however, Washington later said that it would keep around four hundred soldiers for an indefinite time.

“Fighting ISIS and its extremist violence will not end soon,” commander of the international coalition Paul LaCamera said on Saturday. Before its defeat, the group put out voice recordings on Telegram in recent days, calling on its members to take their “revenge” from the Kurds and launch attacks in the West against enemies of the “caliphate.”

Al-Baghouz front was a clear example of the complexity of the Syrian conflict which recently started its ninth year, leaving more than three hundred and seventy thousand dead, while all international efforts failed to reach a political settlement.

Kurdish Invitation

25 March 2019

Syrian Kurds urged the government to open up a dialogue to “block all attempts that challenge Syria’s sovereignty by parties that have intervened in Syria, especially the Turkish occupation regime.”

Sihanok Deibo, member of the presidential council of the Democratic Syria Council (DSC) said, “Damascus and other Arab countries should regard the (Kurdish) self-administration as a safety valve and a counter front to Turkish aggressive ambitions.”

“The number of ISIS prisoners and family members exceeds fifty thousand from forty-eight Arab and foreign nationalities,” Deibo said, considering this huge number a “big dilemma which the self-administration in northern Syria cannot bear the sole responsibility for.”

“The best way would be to establish an international tribunal in north and east of Syria, with details agreed upon with the self-administration,” Deibo added.

Golan “Documents”

24 March 2019

The Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday that the US President Donald Trump would sign a proclamation recognizing Israel sovereignty of the Syrian Occupied Golan Heights when he meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington on Monday.

“President Trump will sign tomorrow in the presence of PM Netanyahu an order recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights,” Katz wrote on Twitter.

The announcement was faced with wide criticism from Arab and Western countries and the United Nations. Damascus affirmed its commitment to retake control the Golan by all means. The Arab League stressed that “Arab summits always affirm in their decisions the Arab status of the occupied Syrian Golan.”

Trump’s announcement is a break from decades-old US policy in the Middle East and longstanding international consensus.

The Arab League said, “In light of the recent development, some Arab countries could ask for new additions to the draft resolution regarding the Golan.”

The Arab League and Arab countries denounced Trump’s announcement, stressing that the “Golan is a Syrian occupied territory.”

“Statements by the US administration, which pave the way for an official US recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Syrian Golan, are completely outside international law,” Ahmed Abu Gheit, the General Secretary of the Arab League said on Thursday: “The Golan is a Syrian occupied territory according to international law, UN and Security Council resolutions, and recognition of the international community,” he added.

 

The Return is “Not Listed”

23 March 2019

“The issue of Syria’s return to the Arab League has yet to be listed on the agenda and has not been formally proposed,” said the League’s spokesman Mahmoud Afifi, referring to the Arab summit scheduled to be held in Tunisia at the end of March.

The Secretary General of the Arab League Ahmed Abu Gheit said on 6 March at the end of the 151stSession of the Arab League Ministerial Meeting in Cairo, Egypt that the issue of Syria’s potential participation in the upcoming summit in Tunisia was not discussed at all during the meetings.

On 12 November 2011, after eight months of the onset of protests in Syria, the Arab League decided to suspend Syria’s membership and impose political and economic sanctions on Damascus, calling on the Syrian army “not to use violence against anti-government protestors.”

A debate has risen concerning Syria’s return, especially after Damascus strengthened its authorities and military victories by the Syrian army, which took back control of vast areas from militant jihadists and opposition with help from its Russian and Iranian allies.

There is division among Arab countries in this regard. Iraq and Lebanon called for Syria’s return to the Arab League, while the United Arab Emirates reopened its embassy in Damascus in December 2018, after cutting diplomatic ties in 2012.

Assistant Secretary General of the Arab League Hossam Zaki said in a press conference in January, “There is no Arab consensus in regards to reconsidering Syria’s suspension from the Arab League.”

Syria in a Week (10 September 2018)

Syria in a Week (10 September 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Idlib Countdown

8 September 2018

After the failure of the Russian-Turkish-Iranian summit in Tehran, the countdown for the governorate of Idlib, the last stronghold for the opposition which also includes fanatics, has started. This has raised concerns over a government offensive and the new humanitarian crisis that would follow.

Russian planes launched airstrikes on the headquarters of Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra) and Islamic Ahrar al-Sham in the governorate, leaving at least five dead, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

On Thursday, hundreds of civilians started to leave areas in Idlib in fear of an imminent attack. Displacement is focused in the southeastern countryside, which has been targeted for days by Syrian and Russian airstrikes and is expected to be the front for the first battles in case the offensive is initiated.

Eight international NGOs active in Syria called on “international leaders” meeting in Tehran and New York to “work together to avoid the worst humanitarian catastrophe since the onset of the conflict in Syria seven years ago,” which left more than three hundred and fifty thousand dead and millions of displaced people.

Russia, Iran, and Turkey are the sponsors of the Astana peace talks. These talks began after the Russian military intervention in the conflict in 2015, which was in effect a turning point in the conflict in favor of Bashar al-Assad’s government. These talks overshadowed the UN-led Geneva process. Before the summit, some media outlets mentioned the possibility of reaching an agreement on Idlib, however, the final statement said that the three presidents agreed to resolve the situation in Idlib “in a spirit of cooperation that has marked the Astana talk.”

“We have discussed concrete measures regarding a phased stabilization in the Idlib de-escalation zone, which stipulate… a possibility of making peace for those ready for dialogue,” Putin said after the summit, referring to militants willing to hand over their weapons. Erdogan and Rouhani called for the need to protect civilians, while UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura called for concrete measures at a UN Security Council session in New York on Friday.

“People should be granted safe passage to places of their own choosing if they want to leave,” de Mistura said through video conference. “We must allow the opening of sufficient number of protected voluntary evacuation routes for civilians in any direction: east, north, and south,” he added. De Mistura is scheduled to have talks next week in Geneva concerning the crisis in Idlib with representatives from Turkey, Russia, and Iran.

Government forces have been sending reinforcements to surrounding areas of Idlib, as artillery shelling has intensified in recent days on areas in the southeastern countryside with the participation of Russian planes. The UN says that displaced people constitute half of the governorate’s population, in addition to their presence in the adjacent governorates of Hama, Aleppo, and Lattakia.

 

Idlib: Fierce Airstrikes

9 September 2018

The governorate of Idlib was targeted by Russian airstrikes which were described as the “fiercest” since Damascus, along with its ally Moscow, threatened to launch an imminent attack on the region, according to the SOHR.

Russian planes carried out approximately sixty airstrikes in less than three hours on towns and villages in the southern and southeastern countryside of Idlib, as well as artillery and aerial bombardment with explosive barrels by government forces, leaving four civilians dead including two children, according to the SOHR.

Rami Abdul Rahman, head of the SOHR, told the AFP that the ongoing airstrikes are focused on headquarters of militant jihadist factions, some of which are empty and others are still operational. These strikes are considered the “fiercest” on northern Syria in the last month, as Russian and Syrian airstrikes have left fifty-three deaths, including forty-one civilians in the town of Orm al-Kobra in the western countryside of Aleppo near Idlib, according to Abdul Rahman.

These strikes come after the summit in Tehran that joined President Hasan Rouhani of Iran and President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who are allies with Damascus, in addition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, who supports the opposition.

Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra) controls most of Idlib, whereas other Islamic factions are deployed in the remaining areas. Government forces are present in the southeastern countryside.

 

Trilateral Differences in Tehran

7 September 2018

The presidents of Iran, Turkey, and Russia failed in overcoming their differences on the governorate of Idlib during the summit they held in Tehran yesterday. “Trilateral differences” emerged and prevented the establishment of a plan or ceasefire in northern Syria.

Iranian President Hasan Rouhani and Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed the need for their ally Damascus to regain control over the governorate of Idlib, which is home to three million people, half of which are displaced from other areas. “The legitimate Syrian government has the right to regain control over all its national territory, and it is obliged to do that,” said Putin.

On the other hand, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cautioned that an attack on Idlib would lead to a “catastrophe.” The final statement of the summit did not include Erdogan’s call for a truce. After the summit, Putin and Erdogan separately met with the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

In the meantime, the UN Security Council held a session upon a call from the United States to discuss the situation in Idlib. UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan De Mistura called for safe passages for civilians. The most prominent warnings came from the current president of the council, US Representative at the Security Council Nikki Haley, who stressed that “Iran and Russia will face serious consequences,” while other representatives cautioned from a “new humanitarian catastrophe” in Idlib.

 

Turkish Segregation in Northern Syria

6 September 2018

Ankara put forward a plan for the exit of armed factions from the Syrian governorate of Idlib, in an attempt to avoid a bloodbath that could follow a major offensive by Syrian government forces, according to a Turkish official newspaper on Friday.

The presidents of Russia, Turkey, and Iran met in Tehran on Friday to reach a solution for the seven-year Syrian conflict. Ankara, worried by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces’ attempt to regain the last stronghold of armed factions in Idlib, put forward a plan to avoid the offensive, according to Sabah newspaper. According to the plan, twelve armed groups, including Tahrir al-Sham, would lay down their arms and be evacuated from the governorate, the newspaper said, without revealing its sources.

The groups would be offered safe passage to a buffer zone, under the surveillance of the moderate opposition on condition they hand over weapons to a loose coalition of other rebel groups backed by Ankara, the newspaper continued. Foreign fighters in the group would be allowed to return to their home countries if they wish, Sabah said. But the groups who refuse to disarm and evacuate would be targeted by counter-terror operations.

As in other regions controlled by Ankara-backed rebels, Turkey will later train militants to ensure Idlib’s security. The plan will also secure the Russian Hmeimeim military base in Lattakia governorate, as well as mineral deposits in the region, the newspaper said.

Turkey, which has already listed Nusra and al-Qaeda as terror groups, added Tahrir al-Sham to the list last month. Ankara fears a major offensive on Idlib could spark an influx of refugees across its border, and warned a military solution would only cause a “catastrophe.” Turkey has been carrying out intensive negotiations with Russia for weeks. Analysts say Ankara could be prepared to accept a limited Russian-backed government offensive against extremist groups, even if it leaves the question of the long-term control of the governorate open for now.

 

A Test East of the Euphrates

8 September 2018

Eighteen members of Syrian government forces and Kurdish security forces (Assayish) were killed on Saturday in confrontations between the two sides in the northeastern city Qamishli, which they share control of, according to a statement from the Kurds and the SOHR.

Observers considered the confrontations as a “bloody test of strength,” as the government has two “security squares” in Qamishli and Hasakeh east of the Euphrates, which is under the US-backed Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The deaths included eleven Syrian military soldiers, who were on patrol when they reached a checkpoint for the Assayish in the city, and seven Kurdish fighters, in addition to injuries on both sides.

Assayish leadership said in a statement that its members opened fire in response to “the targeting by patrol soldiers of our forces using light and medium weapons. Our forces responded to this aggression, which left eleven government soldiers dead and two injured … Seven of our comrades were also killed with one injury.”

“A checkpoint for the Assayesh stopped a government military vehicle when it passed on a street in the city and asked its members to step out,” the SOHR said.

“When they refused to do this, shots were fired at the vehicle. Fierce clashes erupted between the two sides as they both brought in military reinforcement,” the SOHR added.

There were three empty government military pick-up trucks in the area where the clashes took place, and traces of bullets and blood on the ground were visible, the SOHR reported. A state of tension looms over the city as Kurdish security forces were put on high alert and called for additional military reinforcement, the SOHR noted.

Clashes between the two sides are a rare occurrence in the city where they share control. Government forces control the airport of the city and most Arab majority neighborhoods, whereas Kurdish forces control the larger part.

Bloody clashes between the two sides occurred in April of 2016 after a problem at one of the security checkpoints in the city. The clashes left dozens dead from both sides, in addition to civilian casualties.

Syrian government forces gradually withdrew from Kurdish majority areas as the conflict in Syria expanded in 2012, however, it retained governmental and administrational offices, as well as some military forces, especially in the cities of Hasakeh and Qamishli.

Syrian Kurds, who control around thirty percent of the county, initiated direct negotiations with Damascus in July. An agreement was reached regarding the formation of committees to advance the negotiations and place a road map that would lead to a de-centralized administration in the country. In the meantime, Damascus has reiterated its intention to restore control over all of its territory.

 

Washington: Sanctions and Threats

5 September 2018

The US Treasury Department said it has imposed sanctions on four individuals and five entities it accuses of facilitating transportation of oil shipments and financing to the Syrian government. A US envoy said that he sees “evidence that Damascus is getting ready to use chemical weapons in Idlib.” US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin linked the sanctions to the imminent attack by Syrian government forces on Idlib, the last governorate controlled by the opposition in the north near the Turkish border.

Among the people hit by the sanctions is Mohammed al-Qatrji, whom the department describes as having facilitated commercial oil deals between the Syrian government and ISIS.

“Millions of innocent people in Idlib province are currently under the threat of an imminent attack from the Assad government, backed by Iran and Russia, under the pretense of targeting ISIS.  At the same time, the Assad government has a history of trading with the terror group,” Mnuchin said. He also described the Syrian government as “murderous.”

The United States maintains a number of sanctions against the Syrian government, including a number of procedures that were imposed after the civil war erupted in 2011.

There is “lots of evidence” that chemical weapons are being prepared by Syrian government forces in Idlib region in northwest Syria, the new US representative for Syria said, warning any attack on the last big rebel enclave would be a “reckless escalation.”

“I am very sure that we have very, very good grounds to be making these warnings,” said Jim Jeffrey, who was named on 17 August as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s special adviser on Syria overseeing talks on a political transition in that country.

“Any offensive is to us objectionable as a reckless escalation … There is lots of evidence that chemical weapons are being prepared,” Jeffrey told a few reporters.

Jeffrey said an attack by Russian and Syrian forces, and the use of chemical weapons, would force huge refugee flows into southeastern Turkey or areas in Syria under Turkish control.

 

Chemical Weapons and Airstrikes, Once Again

8 September 2018

Chairman of the joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford said on Saturday that he is having “routine dialogue” with President Donald Trump about military options in case Syria ignores US warnings against using chemical weapons in an expected offensive on Idlib.

The United States has not decided whether to employ military force in response to a future chemical attack in Syria, Dunford said. “But we are in a dialogue, a routine dialogue, with the president to make sure he knows where we are with regard to planning in the event that chemical weapons are used,” he told a small group of reporters during a trip to India. Dunford later added: “He expects us to have military options and we have provided updates to him on the development of those military options.”

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has mobilized his army and allied forces on confrontation lines in the northwest, and Russian planes have joined in the bombardment of opposition militants there, in a prelude to a widely expected offensive despite objections from Turkey.

The White House warned that the United States and its allies would respond “swiftly and vigorously” if government forces used chemical weapons in Idlib.

Trump bombarded Syria twice because of its alleged use of chemical weapons in April of 2017 and April of 2018.

The commander of the French army also said that his forces are ready to hit Syrian targets if chemical weapons are used in Idlib.

Dunford declined to comment on US intelligence regarding potential Syrian preparation of chemical agents. When asked if there was a chance to avoid an attack on Idlib, Dunford said: “I do not know if there is anything that can stop it. It is certainly disappointing but perhaps not (surprising) that the Russians, the Turks and the Iranians were not able to come up with a solution yesterday.”

Dunford warned against the potential for a humanitarian crisis in Idlib and instead has recommended more narrowly tailored operations against militants there. “There is a more effective way to do counterterrorism operations than major conventional operations in Idlib,” he said.

 

Syria in a Week (18 June 2018)

Syria in a Week (18 June 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

The South on Edge

12-16 June 2018

Reuters and Enab Baladi

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said that he has not taken a decision on whether the situation in southern Syria will be resolved through reconciliation or military means. “We will give way for the political process. If it does not work out, then we do not have an option other than liberating by force.”

Since last year, a “de-escalation” deal brokered by Russia, the United States, and Jordan has contained fighting to the southwest. Washington expressed its concern regarding an impending military offensive, warning of “firm and appropriate measures” in response to any violations of the ceasefire.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said that the Syrian army and its allies bombed opposition fighters in Daraa, southwest of the country, on Wednesday killing at least six people. The SOHR also said that the Syrian army bombed the towns of Kafr Shams and al-Hara, near the border with the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. (Reuters)

The Syrian government continued sending military reinforcement to Daraa. Last week, the defense minister visited southern Syria and Suhail al-Hasn arrived in Daraa, signaling the completion of preparations for military action. (Enab Baladi) In a related context, a commander in the pro-Syrian regional coalition said that the Syrian army reinforced its anti-aircraft defenses near the border with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. More defenses are scheduled for the upcoming days to “restore the air defense system against Israel.”

In recent weeks, the multi-party war in Syria shifted towards the southwest, increasing the risk for escalation in an extremely important area for Israel. The conflict was contained last year through an agreement to de-escalate brokered by the United States and Russia. (Reuters)

 

Ongoing Suffering in Idlib

11 & 17 June 2018

Reuters and Enab Baladi

The UN Regional Humanitarian Coordinator in Syria Panos Moumtzis called for ending the war and avoiding bloodshed in Idlib, which has become a refuge for tens of thousands of civilians and fighters from opposition factions after being evacuated from other areas inside Syria.

The governorate’s population is estimated around two and a half million. It has witnessed enormous security, military, humanitarian, and economic challenges with escalation in air raids. Eleven people were killed, and a hospital was targeted in an air raid on Sunday, 10 June. The military option in Idlib could be “much more complicated and brutal” than Aleppo and Ghouta, according to Moumtzis. The civilians also have no place else to go to. (Reuters)

Idlib governorate has also been experiencing chaos in the security situation for two months. It started with assassinations of military, cultural, administrative, and medical personalities, the last of which was in the city of al-Dana on Sunday, 17 June, when an unidentified armed group stormed a hospital attempting to kidnap the medical staff but eventually failed to do so. Another group stole electronic equipment from al-Dana University. Factions are exchanging accusations of responsibility for the assassinations, especially between Tahrir al-Sham and Tahrir Souria factions. (Enab Baladi)

 

Corrosion of the Self-administration … and the Negotiation Option

12 & 14 June 2018

Reuters

An agreement was reached between Turkey and the United States on a plan for the Syrian city of Manbij during a meeting in Stuttgart this week, the Turkish armed forces said. On 4 June, Ankara and Washington said that they reached a road map that provides for the withdrawal of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units’ (YPG) fighters from Manbij. (Reuters)

The negotiations show the decline in the US role in supporting the self-administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), especially after Turkey captured Afrin with the support of opposition factions. The political discourse of some Kurdish forces witnessed a change recently, with Aldar Khalil, a prominent Syrian Kurdish politician, expressing his hope that the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would be serious about negotiations with Kurdish forces, alluding to his willingness to hold talks without preconditions. (Reuters) The northeastern part of Syria seems to be at a crossroad with the potential for deterioration into military confrontations or heading for negotiations between the self-administration and the Syrian government, especially after the decline in the US role and the increase in Turkish pressure.

 

Afrin Infringement

14 June 2018

Reuters

Human Rights Watch documented how Turkey-backed rebels seized, looted, and destroyed civilians’ properties after taking control of the area in March. The UN estimates some one hundred and thirty-seven thousand people were displaced by the Afrin offensive, in another large population movement in the seven-year long Syrian conflict which has forced more than half of the country’s population from their homes. (Reuters)

Forced displacement and seizure and looting of property have been systematically used in the Syrian conflict to subjugate the local population and use the available resources to serve the economies of war. The situation of rights and property is exacerbated when confiscation and seizure of property during war are legitimized through laws such as the Anti-terrorism Law or “reconstruction laws” such as Law no. 10.

 

Staffan de Mistura … Once Again

14 June 2018

Reuters

Senior officials from Iran, Russia, and Turkey will meet in Geneva on 18 and 19 June to hold negotiations with the UN regarding the formation of a constitutional committee for Syria, the UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura said in a statement on Wednesday. The statement went on to say the de Mistura will send an invitation to other countries to hold talks related to this matter. De Mistura is commissioned with choosing the members of the committee, which is expected to reformulate the Syrian constitution, paving the way for new elections and political reform after the end of the war. De Mistura intends to meet with Russian, Turkish, and Iranian officials next week. He said that he expects a similar meeting with US, Saudi, British, French, German, and Jordanian officials on 25 June. (Reuters)

The political process in Syria has not progressed for years, and the “Geneva process” has corroded, however, UN teams and meeting have expanded as they get themselves busy “wasting time” and avoiding core issues of conflict resolution.

 

Mysterious Coalition Strikes … In the East

11 & 18 June 2018

Reuters

Fighting east of the Euphrates has intensified in recent weeks after Syrian Democratic Forces resumed their campaign against ISIS. On the other hand, the Syrian government expanded its operations in the countryside of Deir Azzor against remaining ISIS fighters. In this context, official Syrian media accused the coalition forces of carrying out an air strike on 11 June that left eighteen Iraqi refugees dead at a school in the southern countryside of al-Hasakeh governorate, however, the coalition denied the report. In a related context, Amnesty International issued a report last week in which it said that there is evidence that the US-led coalition violated international law in some of its airstrikes in Raqqa last year by putting the lives of civilians in danger. (Reuters)

US-led coalition planes bombed a military position for the Syrian army southeast of Boukamal city, which left a number of deaths and injuries, official Syrian media said once again on Monday, 18 June, but the US army denied the report. (Reuters)

 

Sarin in Latamna

14 June 2018

Reuters

Tests confirmed the use of the banned nerve agent sarin in an attack south of Latamna city, in Hama governorate on 24 March 2017, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) said on Wednesday. “Chlorine gas and nerve gas were probably used as a chemical weapon at Latamna Hospital and the surrounding area on 25 March 2017,” the OPCW added. (Reuters)

The use of chemical weapons has been documented in the Syrian war in numerous cases and led to various international reactions, the strongest of which was the US threat of a strike after accusations of using chemical weapons in Ghouta that led the Syrian government to surrender its chemical weapons to the OPCW, and the US strike against al-Shoairat airport after accusations of using chemical weapons in Khan Sheikhon, and the US, French, and British tripartite strike on the “infrastructure” for producing chemical weapons during the recent Ghouta battle this year.

 

Refugees in Lebanon

11-15 June 2018

Reuters

The escalation led by Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Basil towards the UN refugee agency UNHCR continued as he accused it of working to stop refugees from returning to Syria. The UNHCR previously denied similar accusations, saying that it supports the return of refugees when it is safe for them to go back to Syria and helps those who choose to return with their documentation. Last week, Bassil ordered a freeze on applications by the UNHCR for residency permits for its staff, saying it was intimidating refugees into staying in Lebanon. (Reuters) It is worth mentioning that Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri said that the foreign minister’s position does not reflect that of the government. It seems that some political powers want to step up calls for the rapid return of refugees to their country, but the UN says the situation is not safe yet for their return.

The international community is “dismayed by repeated false accusations” that it is working to settle Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Germany’s ambassador in Beirut Martin Huth said on Thursday. He said that the situation in Syria is not safe yet and no agreement has been reached to end the war, adding that the international community and the UN are “fully committed to an eventual return of refugees to Syria.” (Reuters)

 

 

Syria in a Week (4 June 2018)

Syria in a Week (4 June 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

US Outrage and Syrian Presidency

29 May 2018

The US State Department expressed its outrage that Syria will assume the presidency of the UN Conference on Disarmament for the next month, saying that Damascus lacks credibility to preside over the body because of its use of chemical weapons.

“We are outraged at the Syrian regime’s blatant disregard for human life, its serial violations of and contempt for its international obligations and its audaciousness in assuming the presidency of an international body committed to advancing disarmament and non-proliferation,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said on Tuesday.

US Ambassador Robert Wood withdrew from the conference when the Syrian ambassador presided over the conference.

 

US Condemnation and Syrian Recognition

30 May 2018

On Wednesday, the United States condemned Syria’s decision to recognize two breakaway regions in Georgia, saying it fully backed Georgia’s independence and reiterating its call for Russia to withdraw from the area.

“The United States strongly condemns the Syrian regime’s intention to establish diplomatic relations with the Russian-occupied Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement.

“These regions are part of Georgia. The United States’ position on Abkhazia and South Ossetia is unwavering,” the statement said.

The US statement came one day after Georgia said that it would sever diplomatic relations with Syria after Damascus moved to recognize the two regions as independent states.

Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Nauru recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both of which broke away from Georgia following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Following a war in the early 1990s, Georgia and Russia fought a war over the regions in August 2008.

The United States and the European Union have backed Georgia in calling the Russian operation a naked land grab.

Last week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pledged deeper security and economic support for Georgia, calling on Russia to withdraw its forces from Abkhazia and South Ossetia under the ceasefire agreement that followed the 2008 war. The state department echoed that request on Wednesday.

 

US-Turkish Map

30 May 2018

The US State Department on Wednesday denied media reports that a deal had been reached between the United States and Turkey on a three-step plan for withdrawing the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from Manbij, Syria.

“We do not have any agreements yet with the government of Turkey,” department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement in Washington. “We are continuing to have ongoing conversations regarding Syria and other issues of mutual concern,” she said, adding that American and Turkish officials had met in Ankara last week for talks on the issue.

Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency had previously said that Turkey and Washington reached a technical agreement on the withdrawal plan, a move Turkey has long sought from the United States.

Turkey is outraged by US support for the YPG, considering them a terrorist organization. Ankara has threatened to push its offensive in northern Syria’s Afrin region further east to Manbij.

Manbij is a potential flashpoint. The Syrian government, Kurdish militants, Syrian rebel groups, Turkey, and the United States all have a military presence in northern Syria.

Under the terms of the plan to be finalized during a visit by Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to Washington on 4 June, the YPG will withdraw from Manbij thirty days after the deal is signed, Anadolu said, quoting sources who attended meetings at which the decisions were made.

Turkish and US military forces will start joint supervision in Manbij forty-five days after the agreement is signed and a local administration will be formed sixty days after 4 June, Anadolu said.

 

Russian-Israeli Understanding

31 May 2018

Russian and Israeli defense ministers met in Moscow on Thursday, while Russia is providing indirect support for Israel in efforts to remove Iranian troops from southern Syria, near the Israeli border.

Russia has managed to maintain close relations with regional rivals Israel and Iran as it provides decisive military support for the Syrian government in Syria’s multi-sided civil war.

“Israel appreciates Russia’s understanding of our security needs, especially the situation on our northern border,” Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said in a statement from Lieberman’s office.

The meeting lasted more than an hour and a half and concerned security issues between the two countries and Israel’s effort to “prevent Iran from establishing bases in Syria,” the statement said.

Russia, on the previous day, demanded that foreign soldiers leave southwestern Syria’s civilian safe zone, near the Israeli border, without directly mentioning Iran.

There are international agreements that all non-Syrian forces must leave the zone, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters in Moscow, adding that Russia has been working on the issue with the United States and Jordan.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the previous week that Iran must leave all of Syria because Iran’s long-range missiles threaten Israel’s national security.

“We are not satisfied with Iranian withdrawal from southern Syria alone,” Netanyahu said in a statement.

 

Opposition Against Iran

31 May 2018

The US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal opens the way to raising pressure on Tehran to stop its military support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a Syrian opposition leader said on Thursday.

Nasr Hariri of the Syrian Negotiation Commission (SNC) spoke in Brussels as Assad declared that US forces should leave Syria because people in the Middle East were tired of foreign invasions.

Hariri pushed back against Assad’s comments, stressing that Russia and Iran had been fighting on behalf of Assad in the Syrian war, helping him retake considerable territory from rebels and Islamic groups. Hariri said there were now up to one hundred thousand Iranian or Iran-affiliated fighters in the country.

“The role of Iran is getting bigger and bigger, at the expense of our people,” Hariri said. “So we are supporting any international mechanism that could limit the influence of Iran in the region in general, and in our country in particular.”

Hariri had talks with EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini about the matter on Thursday. “While Iran and Iranian militias are present in our country, there will not be a political, negotiated solution. There will not be a solution while these foreign partners are there. We are looking for ways to force Iran out of Syria,” he said.

 

Return of Syrians from Lebanon!

31 May 2018

Lebanon is working with Damascus for the return of thousands of refugees who want to go back to Syria, a Lebanese official said on Thursday.

Lebanese President Michel Auon and other politicians called for refugees to go back to “secure areas” before reaching a deal to end the Syrian war.

According to UN estimates, Lebanon hosts around one million registered Syrian refugees or about one quarter of the of the country’s population, who have fled the war in Syria since 2011. The Lebanese government estimates the number of refugees to be more than one and a half million.

After Syrian forces backed by Iran and Russia recaptured vast areas of land, several Lebanese politicians have stressed their demands for the return of refugees, which is at odds with the international view that it is not safe yet.

“There are contacts with the Syrian authorities about thousands of Syrians who want to return to Syria,” Major General Abbas Ibrahim, a top Lebanese state figure and the head of the General Security agency, told reporters on Thursday. “The stay of Syrians in Lebanon will not go on for a long time. There is intensive work by the political authority,” he added without giving a timeframe for the return, however, he suggested that at least some refugees would return soon.

In an emailed statement in response to a question from Reuters, the UNHCR said that it was “aware of several return movements of Syrian refugees being planned to Syria,” and that “UNHCR is in regular contact with the General Directorate of the General Security on this issue.”

In April, several hundred refugees were transported from Shabaa in southern Lebanon to Syria, in an operation supervised by General Security and in coordination with Damascus.

Saad al-Hariri, who is prime minister of the outgoing Lebanese government and has been designated to form the next one, said Lebanon is against forced returns of refugees.

“We are going to establish ten centers for our Syrian brothers allover Lebanon to regulate their administrative and security status and legalize their presence in Lebanon.”

 

Reinforcements, Assurances, and Threats

1 June 2018

Al-Qamishli city has experienced great tensions after statements by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on handing over areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to the Syrian government, a security source in the SDF said. The source added that the city has witnessed Kurdish military reinforcements.

“People’s Protection Units (YPG) brought in big military reinforcements from the counterterrorism forces in al-Malkieh north-east of Hasakeh Governorate to al-Qamishli on Thursday evening because of security developments in the city and surrounding countryside,” the source, who asked not to be identified, said to a German news agency.

Syrian sources said that “one of the leaders of the SDF from Tal Hamis south of Qamishli defected and handed himself in to one of the Syrian army’s checkpoints in Thibbaneh village.”

“We will deal with the SDF in one of two options. The first, which is that we began to open doors to negotiations because these forces are made up of Syrians and because we are Syrians who will live with each other. The second option is that if there are no negotiations, we will resort to force because we don’t have any other option,” the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview with Russia Today channel.

The Pentagon warned the Syrian president not to use force against US-backed Arab and Kurdish fighters to restore areas controlled by them north-east of Syria.

“Any interested party in Syria should understand that attacking US Forces or our coalition partners would be a bad policy,” Lieutenant General Kenneth McKenzie said in a press briefing.

Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White said that the US army is deployed in Syria to fight ISIS. “Our desire is not to get involved in the Syrian civil war,” she said in a press conference.

 

The Lowest Toll

1 June 2018

The toll of civilians killed in May is the lowest since the onset of the conflict seven years ago despite the fact that there were about two hundred and fifty civilians killed, the AFP reported the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) as saying.

The SOHR said that the number of civilian deaths last month was two hundred and forty-four, including fifty-eight children and thirty-three women, which is “the lowest toll in civilian deaths since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution” in 2011.

This decrease in numbers compared with those of previous months comes after government forces controlled all of eastern Ghouta and several towns near Damascus in April.

This control was a result of a military offensive that coincided with fierce aerial and artillery bombardment that left hundreds of civilians dead.

The number of civilians killed in April was three hundred and ninety-five according to the SOHR.

Battle fronts were calm to a large extent last month as the fighting concentrated south of Damascus, where government forces were able to oust ISIS from the last enclave it was entrenched in, and thus Damascus and its countryside were declared as “safe” zones.

Of the civilians killed in May, there were seventy-seven killed in aerial and artillery bombardment by government forces and nineteen others killed as a result of airstrikes carried out by Russia which supports Damascus. Thirty-nine others were killed in airstrikes by the US-led international coalition that targeted pockets controlled by ISIS.

Syria in a Week (23 April 2018)

Syria in a Week (23 April 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

First “Chemical” Sample

21 April 2018

Experts from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) were finally able to enter Douma city and take samples from the site of the alleged attack with poison gas, which triggered enormous diplomatic tension in the international arena, especially between Washington and Moscow.

This is the first field visit of a site allegedly attacked with chemical weapons in Syria.

The Syrian government, which denies western accusation of involvement in the attack that left forty people dead according to the civil defense, had invited the OPCW to visit Douma, however, the experts who arrived in Syria a week ago were not able to enter the city until Saturday.

Moscow, the Syrian government’s ally, mentioned security reasons for this delay, however, western countries, spearheaded by the United States and France, accused the Syrian government and Russia of obstructing the arrival of the inspectors and tampering with evidence. The United States said that the Russians could have “tampered” the attack site, while France said that it is “very likely” that “evidence and other essential factors could have disappeared.”

The OPCW said on Saturday that its experts, who reached Damascus on 14 April, took samples from the site and Moscow said they entered the site on Saturday.

 

A “Swedish Nook” on Syria

21 April 2018

Members of the UN Security Council met in a secluded farmhouse south of Sweden in an effort to overcome deep divisions regarding Syria.

In an unprecedented move by this council, which usually holds its annual brainstorming session in New York, Sweden, a non-permanent member, invited the fifteen members along with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to hold their informal meeting this year in Backakra. They were joined by the Special Envoy to Syria Staffa di Mistura on Sunday.

“We still face a very serious divide on that [Syria] matter,” Guterres said as he arrived along with the ambassadors.

The farmhouse was the summer residence of Dag Hammarskjold, the United Nations’ second secretary-general who died in a plane crash in Africa in 1961.

The Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom welcomed the decision to hold the meeting in Sweden, “which believes in peaceful conflict solutions and prevention.” The US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said “We are not having that much success, we are still deadlocked.”

Russia has used its veto power twelve times since the onset of the conflict in Syria in 2011.

 

From al-Kalamoun to Jarablus

20 April 2018

Opposition fighter started to leave towns in north-east Damascus according to an agreement between the government and local opposition factions.

The agreement in the eastern al-Kalamoun area comes within the framework of evacuation agreements, where civilians and fighters are forced to leave from previous opposition factions’ strongholds near Damascus.

This confirms what the Syria Arab News Agency (SANA) had said regarding the beginning of buses carrying opposition fighters and their families leaving the town of al-Rhaibeh, which is located in eastern al-Kalamoun, around sixty kilometers north-east of Damascus.

The official state TV said that thirty-two thousand fighters and their families are expected to leave from al-Rhaibeh and the two adjacent towns al-Nasrieh and Jairood on Saturday. It showed buses passing through al-Rhaibeh, most of which had their curtains closed.

The agreement stipulates that fighters hand over their heavy and medium weapons and ammunition depots before they exit towards Jarablus in Aleppo governorate and towards nearby Idlib governorate.

Evacuation agreements, overseen by Russia, continue as the government seeks to ensure the security of Damascus by ousting opposition fighters from “reconciliation zones”, which is the name used by the government for areas where it reached agreements with the factions over the past years. These agreements often provide for the survival of opposition fighters with a cessation of hostilities and in return government forces allow aid and goods to enter.

The Syrian army said on Saturday that it had regained all of eastern Ghouta near Damascus following a military operation that lasted for two months. This operation left one thousand and seven hundred civilians dead, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). The Syrian army also declared a number of agreements that were followed by the displacement of tens of thousands of people.

This week, one thousand and five hundred fighters along with three thousand and five hundred civilians were evacuated from al-Dhmair city, fifty kilometers north-east of Damascus, and transported to Jarablus after an agreement with Jaish al-Islam.

 

Last Enclaves in Damascus

20 April 2018

Syrian government forces and allied fighters control a neighborhood south of Damascus after an agreement between the fighters and government forces failed.

A Syrian military source told the German news agency that “the Syrian army and allied forces took full control of al-Zain neighborhood, which separates the neighborhoods of Yalda and al-Hajar al-Aswad, south of Damascus after fierce battles with ISIS fighters this afternoon,” adding that government forces are fighting fierce battles on many fronts in neighborhoods south of Damascus.

On the other hand, sources in the Syrian opposition said that the agreement declared by government forces was abolished after government forces refused opposition forces’ conditions, especially those of al-Nusra front and other factions, which requested that the departure be towards northern Syria.

Government forces had declared that they have “reached an agreement with opposition fighters who control the neighborhoods of al-Hajar al-Aswad, al-Tadhamon, and Yarmouk Camp, south of Damascus, which provides for those who refuse the settlement with government forces to leave the area, where ISIS groups leave for the desert of Deir al-Zour governorate, Nusra fighters leave for Idlib governorate, and fighters of the other factions leave for the eastern countryside of Aleppo governorate.”

The southern neighborhoods of Damascus are the last remaining enclaves that are still out of government forces control after their recent control over the Ghouta of Damascus.

 

ISIS Mass Grave

21 April 2018

Tens of bodies belonging to jihadists and civilians were found in a mass grave in Raqqa, the former ISIS stronghold, according to a statement by a local official on Saturday.

The Syrian Democratic Forces, which is comprised of Arab and Kurdish factions backed by a US-led international coalition, expelled the jihadists from Raqqa in October 2017 after months of fighting.

Head of the Reconstruction Committee in the Civil Council of Raqqa, Abdulla al-A’ryan, told the French News Agency that around fifty bodies were taken out of the mass grave which had between one hundred and fifty to two hundred bodies in it belonging to civilians and jihadists.

The mass grave is located under a soccer field near a hospital where jihadists were entrenched before losing the Raqqa battle. “ISIS fighters were entrenched inside the National Hospital and that there were some civilians there as well. This was the only place that seemed available to bury the bodies. They were buried in a hurry,” Al-A’ryan said.

 

“Syrian Bear” in Kurdish Hands

18 April 2018

The US-led international coalition against ISIS said that the Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces, backed by the United States, have arrested Mohammed Haidar Zammar, one of the members of the Hamburg Cell responsible for recruiting three of the attackers of the 11 September attacks in 2001, and that he is being interrogated by the Kurdish Internal Security Forces (Asayish) and the security apparatus of countries in the international coalition.

Zammar (45 years old at the time and who carries a German passport) received a death sentence from the Exceptional Security State Court in February of 2007, which was later reduced to twelve years in prison according to Law 49 of 1980 which provides for the death penalty for members of Muslim Brotherhood.

After that, Zammar was transported from Saidnaya prison to the Central Prison in Aleppo. In March 2014, it was reported that he was set free under a “deal” between Damascus and Islamist opposition factions that provided for the exchange of Zammar and five other Islamists with imprisoned government officers.

The whereabouts of Zammar, who was a member of Ansar al-Sham, were unknown until the Kurds and the coalition reported his arrest along with others. Zammar, who is also known as the Syrian Bear because of his heavy weight (one hundred and fifty kilograms) and huge body, was one of the main figures responsible for the September 11 attacks, especially in regard to his relationship to Mohammed Attah, one of the eleven attackers. The latter visited Aleppo several times in 1994.