بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | مارس 4, 2020 | Syria in a Week, غير مصنف
Aerial War Between Syria and Turkey
01 March 2020
Turkish forces downed two Syrian military jets in northwest Syria, according to Damascus, while Turkey said its offensive against Syrian forces in Idlib governorate will continue.
On the other hand, the Syrian official media said that the Syrian army downed three Turkish drones after Damascus closed off its airspace in northwest of the country and threatened to engage any plane that violates the airspace over Idlib governorate.
The Syrian army’s announcement of closing the airspace came after twenty-six of its soldiers were killed in a Turkish drone attack that targeted several military positions in the countryside of Idlib and Aleppo, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
The death toll of Syrian government forces as a result of the Turkish drone attacks and artillery bombardment has reached seventy-four deaths since Friday said the SOHR, adding that ten members of the Lebanese Hezbollah were also killed. Syria has not officially commented on this toll.
Refugees Once Again
29 February 2020
Some people are trying to cross the barbed wire fence while others are looking for wood and rocks to throw at the police. The final goal for thousands of refugees in Kastanies town, on the border between Turkey and Greece, is to reach Europe.
The five hundred police force have no other means to stop them. They fire tear gas every now and then to prevent what they fear could turn into a human flood trying to cross into Europe.
This all started after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to allow refugees to go from Turkey to Europe. He said that his country cannot handle new waves of refugees from Syria as it already hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees.
A few hundred kilometers away from the tense situation in Kastanies, hundreds of refugees succeeded in entering northern Greece through the Evros river, which runs for two hundred kilometers along the border.
After Erdogan’s statement, which was met by criticism in Greece, armed forces were fanning out the Evros river – turned into a popular crossing point – and using loudspeakers to caution people from entering Greek territory. Greece has also used drones to monitor the movement of migrants. However, the border area is vast, and it would be difficult for observation teams to cover it all.
The chief of the border patrol union Panagiotios Harilas showed reporters a number of tear gas canisters used by Turkish forces which he said were thrown at Greek forces by the migrants.
Erdogan Calls on Putin to “Step Down”
29 February 2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened on Saturday to allow thousands of refugees to head toward Europe, saying that Damascus will “pay the price” for an attack that killed more than thirty Turkish soldiers in Syria.
Turkey said it destroyed “a chemical weapons facility, thirteen kilometers south of Aleppo, in addition to a number of targets for the Syrian government,” within the context of its response to the killing of its soldiers in Idlib.
“We did not want things to reach this point, but they forced us to do this. They will pay the price,” Erdogan said.
Syrian television denied such a facility existed.
Thirty-three Turkish soldiers were killed in an airstrike by Russian-backed Syrian forces on Sunday, the biggest military loss for the Turkish army in years. Another Turkish soldier was later killed raising the toll to thirty-four.
Erdogan made a phone call to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday in an attempt to defuse the escalation. The Kremlin said that the two parties expressed “deep concern” over the situation.
Erdogan might head to Moscow next week to hold talks, the Kremlin said. The Turkish president, however, continued his criticism of Russia on Saturday.
Postponing the Arab Summit
29 February 2020
The restoration of Syria’s membership in the Arab League is a decision that should be made by all member states, Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheil said on Saturday, adding that there are no official or written initiatives in this regard.
In a joint press conference with the Algerian Foreign Minister Sabri Boukadoum, Gheit said that the Arab summit could be held before the end of June, adding that it would be up to Algeria considering that it is the host country for the thirty-second edition of the summit.
Current global conditions, especially from a health perspective, raise concern over meetings and gatherings, said Gheit. Therefore, we will discuss the matter with the Algerian President Abdul Majeed Taboun in my meeting with him and the decision will be made in coordination with Algeria given that it is the host country, he added.
A Four-way Summit
25 February 2020
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that there has been not “total agreement” in regard to a summit on Syria that would join the leaders of Turkey, Russia, France and Germany, raising doubts about the anticipated meeting next week.
In a press conference in Ankara, the Turkish president said that there has been no “total agreement” between the French President Emanuel Macron and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the one hand and the Russian President Vladimir Putin on the other hand.
Erdogan had announced on Saturday that a four-way summit on Syria would be held on 5 March, in an initiative to find a solution to the crisis in Idlib, northwest of Syria, where the offensive by the Syrian government has triggered a humanitarian crisis.
“In a worst-case scenario,” a bilateral summit with the Russian president could be held on the same date, Erdogan said on Tuesday.
بواسطة Ibrahim Hamidi | يناير 22, 2020 | Reports, غير مصنف
The outcomes of the Berlin Summit on Libya, the final communique, and the executive baskets, intersect – to the degree of congruence – with the conclusions of the Vienna Conference on Syria four years ago. That is specifically the case for two points; the return of the Russian role, and the retaliation of the American one through changing the terms of the political process references.
Additionally, there is a third point represented by the doubts that such a political-military process may ever lead to a cease-fire which means using the status-quo to generate further military gains for Moscow’s ally in Libya; Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army, as was the case with President Bashar Al-Assad, Russia’s ally in Syria.
On comparing the political-military track in both Libya and Syria, vis a vis the Vienna & Berlin political processes, 10 important intersections emerge:
1.The Geneva Statement on Syria and the Skhirat Agreement on Libya
The Geneva Statement constituted the reference for the political process at hand in Syria after being approved in June, 2012 by the major powers – Russia & the USA, and the concerned regional States under the auspices of the United Nations in Geneva. As the Geneva Statement talked about the ‘Political Transition’ and formation of ‘Transitional Governing Body’ of both the Government and the Opposition, there was an American-Russian disagreement about its interpretation. It, however, remained the sole reference for the political process up until the Russian military intervention in Syria by the end of September, 2015.
The Skhirat Agreement, signed by the relevant parties in the Moroccan city of Skhirat on December 17, 2015, included the parties of the Libyan conflict under the auspices of the United Nations in order to end the second war that was erupted in 2014. The most important points covered by the agreement were: granting the Head of Government’s prerogatives to the Presidency Council of the Government of the National Accord headed by the Prime Minister, starting a transition period for 18 months, and the formation of the Supreme Council of the State of the members of the new General National Congress and the retention of the Libyan Parliament elected in June 2014.
Despite the differences in interpretation, the Skhirat Agreement remained the benchmark for the Libyan political process with Fayez Al-Sarraj as the internationally-recognized formal representative.
- Vienna Conference & Berlin Summit
After weeks of the Russian military intervention, Moscow began leading a ministerial conference in Vienna in partnership with Washington and other major international and regional parties in October, which resulted in Vienna Statement that was produced in December of the same year and shortly the UNSC’s ( No. 2254).
Since then, Resolution No. 2254 has turned into the reference for the political process focusing on one that includes constitutional reforms and elections under the supervision of the United Nations in an 18-month time frame. There has been since a retreat in the discussion of the ‘Political Transition’ and the ‘Governing Body’.
As for the Berlin Summit, the UN envoy Ghassan Salama went to visit the German Chancellor Angela Merkel several months ago to urge her to undertake a role by providing an umbrella of international-regional consensus in order to protect the Libyan understandings to support the cease-fire decision, and launch the political-military-economic tracks. The outcomes of the Berlin Summit constituted the political reference of the Libyan process as was the case with the Vienna Conference. The aim of the two processes was to form a Government of National Unity.
- UNSC Resolution
After the issuance of the Geneva Statement in mid-2012, Moscow wanted it to be issued under a UNSC Resolution, but the disagreement between Washington and Moscow over the statement’s interpretation led the former to oppose the latter’s move; so the only UN document referring to the Geneva Statement was only Resolution No. 2118 which focused on Chemical Disarmament by the end of 2013. The two parties quickly agreed to issue the Vienna Document within the Resolution No. 2254. However, in Berlin, Russia is trying to speed up the issuance of the international summit outcomes under an international resolution that supports the Libyan understandings.
- The ‘International Support Group’ and the ‘International Follow-Up Group’
The first group was formed of 22 countries that participated in the Vienna Conference, as their representatives were holding periodic meetings in Geneva to follow up the humanitarian issue. The American and Russian representatives continued to follow up the implementation of a cease-fire by exchanging information through military officials. As for the ‘International Follow-Up Group’, it is set to meet once a month, and be headed by the UN delegation to review the implementation of the Berlin Summit on Libya.
- Legitimacy and International Recognition
The Syrian government is recognized by the United Nations despite the opposition of some Western countries, but it has not participated in the drafting of the Geneva and the Vienna Statement. As for Libya, the Government of National Accord headed by Fayez Al-Sarraj is internationally-recognized, but the Russian support differs in both cases. There is no doubt that the stipulations of the ‘Vienna Path’ and Resolution No. 2254 were all about the ‘Government of the Syrian Arab Republic’, however, after the talks they only became about the ‘Syrian Regime’. There are speculations that the direction taken by the Berlin Summit shall be to reinforce Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, Vladimir Putin’s ally, while reducing the legitimacy granted to Fayez Al-Sarraj, Erdogan’s ally, through generating a new political body in Libya.
- A United Nations Path
The Berlin Summit paved the way for the formation of a military committee constituted of representatives of the Government of National Accord and the Libyan National Army, five representatives each . They are set to hold meetings in Geneva under the auspices of the United Nations in order to strengthen the truce, and then to launch the 5+5 negotiations that are meant to open the door for a permanent cease-fire from both sides.
On the Syrian side, the current gap is much wider among the Syrian factions, as it was exacerbated by the interventions of the United States and Russia and their respective allies in the conflict. Holding the Libyan meetings in Geneva conforms to the Syrian experiment with the same goal of establishing an ‘Inclusive Government’ or a ‘Unified Council’.
- Regional Path
In addition to the international track taken in Geneva, Russia has managed to launch another track among the three guarantors: Russia, Turkey and Iran, to deal with several issues such as a cease-fire and the political process. At the Berlin Summit, there was an agreement to pursue another political track. Pursuant to the stipulations of the Skhirat Agreement, the UN mission has launched a process to establish a forum for Libyan political dialogue, to be held outside of Libya by the end of the current month, perhaps to be hosted by a concerned regional state.
- Three Lists
The Berlin Summit’s political track has included the formation of the Libyan Political Dialogue, comprised of 40 representatives to be selected upon consultations with key Libyan parties. As per the obtained information, the mentioned list shall include 13 representatives from the Libyan Parliament (East of Libya), 13 representatives from the Presidency Council (West of Libya, the Government of National Accord), and 14 representatives to be named by the UN envoy. In the Syrian experiment, the UN envoy, Geir Pedersen, was solely responsible for forming the constitutional committee: 50 representatives from the Government, 50 representatives from the Opposition, and other 50 representatives to be named by the UN envoy himself. The principles of power -sharing UN Facilitation and quota were evidently present in both the Syrian and Libyan Experiments.
- The Syrian & Libyan Baskets
The Syrian Political Process resulted in selling the Russian ‘Four Baskets’ to the United Nations, to include the discussion of several issues like: Combating Terrorism, Constitutional Reform, Elections, and Political Transition by the government and opposition representatives. Within the annexes of the Berlin Summit, there was a proposal to form another ‘Six Baskets’ to include several political, economic, financial, security, humanitarian and armament embargo issues. The difference between that and the Syrian Experiment was about setting the priorities of the discussions, and the Libyan process shall never deviate from the same.
- The Libyan & Syrian Ownership
It is true that the Geneva Statement and the Vienna Conference were held in absence of the Syrians themselves. It is also true that the Berlin Summit convened without the direct participation of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and Fayez Al-Sarraj, the two tracks deeply stress on the ownership and leadership of the political process for both Libya and Syria. However, the international parties have intervened to halt more interventions.
Therefore, the Berlin Summit has revealed the obvious retreat of the American role, the stark advance of the Russian one. It has confirmed Moscow’s deep desire to avenge the Western intervention to change the Libyan Regime. That was Russia’s goal in Vienna Conference as to play a leadership role in the Syrian process amid the United States & its Allies’ confusion.
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | أكتوبر 24, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
US Strategy for Syria
22 October 2018
Informed sources say that President Trump’s administration asked US institutions to develop concrete proposals and a road map to implement the US strategy in Syria.
The current US strategy includes keeping special forces within the international coalition against ISIS east of the Euphrates in the Tanf base on the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordanian border to achieve three goals: eliminating ISIS and preventing its reemergence, getting rid of Iranian forces and militias, and pushing toward a UN-sponsored political solution under UN resolution 2254.
The sources say that US officials and experts are studying how to “use pressure and influence means, including controlling a third of Syrian territory, ninety percent of Syrian oil, and half the Syrian gas, in order to exercise pressure to reach the three goals,” stating that the White House is waiting for these proposals by the end of the year.
White Helmets in Canada
19 November 2018
The Canadian government said on Friday that is getting ready to resettle civil defense volunteers in areas controlled by Syrian opposition factions, also known as the White Helmets, along with their families, however, it did not disclose when they will arrive or where they will be resettled.
In a joint statement, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland and Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen said that “Canada is working with a group of international allies on resettling a number of White Helmets members and their families after they had to flee from Syria because they were being specifically targeted by the Syrian government and its Russian ally.”
White Helmets volunteers “witnessed firsthand, as paramedics, some of the most ferocious crimes committed by the criminal Assad government,” the statement said.
On 22 July, Jordan said that it received four hundred and twenty-two members from the White Helmets who fled areas in southern Syria before government forces regained control over them, with the aim of resettling them in Britain, Germany, or Canada.
On Wednesday, the Jordanian foreign ministry said that two hundred members of those had left to be resettled in Western countries.
The world first took notice of the White Helmets after photos appeared with them searching for survivors in the rubble and carrying children covered in blood to the hospital.
The White Helmets emerged in 2013, when the Syrian crisis was coming near to its third year. Since its establishment, more than two hundred of its volunteers have been killed and another five hundred injured.
Four-way Summit on Syria
18 October 2018
Ankara announced a four-way summit on Syria that includes the leaders of Turkey, Russia, Germany, and France to be held in Istanbul on 27 October.
The summit will join Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin.
The spokesman said that the four leaders will discuss the situation on the ground in Syria, the agreement on the demilitarized zone in Idlib that was reached by President Erdogan and President Putin during their summit in Sochi on 17 September, the political process, and various aspects of the Syria crisis.
The four-way summit is expected to “coordinate joint efforts to find a long-lasting solution to the Syrian conflict,” Kalin said.
Delegations from the four countries met in Istanbul on 14 September to prepare for the summit. The Turkish delegation was headed by Ibrahim Kalin, while the German delegation was headed by National Security Advisor Jan Hecker, Senior Diplomatic Advisor Philippe Etienne for the French delegation, and Senior Presidential Advisor Yuri Ushakov for the Russian delegation.
The three-hour preparatory meeting discussed the Syrian issue, especially developments regarding the de-escalation zone in Idlib, in addition to fighting terrorism and other regional issues.
The delegations included technical teams to arrange for the four-way summit called for by Erdogan in July. The summit was initially planned to be held in September but was then delayed.
An Extended Deadline for Idlib
15 October 2018
On Sunday night, the deadline passed for Tahrir al-Sham, which is mainly comprised of Nusra Front (previously), to evacuate the demilitarized buffer zone in Idlib that was set by the Russian-Turkish agreement in Sochi, without any withdrawal being monitored, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
Turkey has sought to convince Tahrir al-Sham, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda, to implement the agreement to avoid a Syrian government offensive which Turkey fears might cause a new influx of refugees towards its border.
Turkey has managed to implement the first phase of the agreement by convincing armed factions to hand over their heavy weaponry by 10 October.
Jan Egeland, UN Humanitarian Affairs Advisor said that Russia and Turkey plan to allow for more time to implement their agreement on the de-escalation zone in Idlib, a “great relief” for three million civilians in the area.
But there were still “a million unanswered questions” about how the deal would work, and what would happen if groups designated as terrorists refused to lay down their weapons, Egeland said.
Speaking after a regular Syria humanitarian meeting in Geneva, Egeland said that Russia had confirmed that Damascus had scrapped Law Number 10, a “very concerning” law allowing the expropriation of land and property from refugees.
Idlib and adjacent areas are the last strongholds of the opposition who rose up against President Bashar al-Assad in 2011, and the UN has warned that a battle to restore Assad’s control over the zone could be the worst of the seven-year-old war.
Turkey and Russia set up a buffer zone running between fifteen and twenty kilometers deep into opposition territory that originally had to be free of heavy weapons and fanatics by Monday.
“There will be more time for diplomacy,” Egeland said. “I was heartened to hear both Russia and Turkey say they are optimistic, they can achieve much more through negotiations, and they are generally very positive on the implementation of this deal which is giving a relief, a pause in fighting, to Idlib,” he added.
Egeland said there were twelve thousand humanitarian workers in the area, and Idlib had now gone five weeks without an air raid, something he could not remember in the past three years.
Four Candidates to Succeed De Mistura
18 October 2018
Russian-Western negotiations are underway to choose one of four candidates to succeed UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura who will leave his position at the end of the next month.
De Mistura told the UN Security Council that he will resign from his position at the end of November after four years as the third UN envoy to Syria after the late Kofi Anan and Lakhdar Brahimi. UN Humanitarian Affairs Envoy and Head of the Norwegian Council for Refugees Jan Egeland will also resign.
After de Mistura’s resignation announcement, consultations between UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and the five permanent UN Security Council countries reached a new level in order to find the fifth envoy to Syria. According to sources, there are four candidates: the first is Nikolai Mladenov, UN Representative for the Palestinian-Israeli Peace Process since 2015, who was previously the foreign minister of Bulgaria. It seems that the Russian side objected to his name, considering him “close to the United States and not impartial.” Damascus also informed Moscow of its reservations because of Mladenov’s “political position from Syria which he expressed when he was the foreign minister of Bulgaria.”
The second is UN Envoy in Iraq Jan Kubis, who is the former foreign minister of Slovakia. It has been reported that Washington has reservations against him because of his “proximity to the Russian position,” and because it thinks that his presence is “currently essential in Iraq, which is undergoing the formation of a new government and a political process following the elections.”
The third is the Algerian Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra. Moscow and Arab countries have pushed for Lamamra to succeed de Mistura, however, Western countries expressed their objection based on previous positions that “deny him the status of mediator”, referring to his statement in December of 2016 on the sidelines of the Peace and Security Conference in Africa: “What happened in Aleppo? The (Syrian) government was able to restore its sovereignty and control over the city. These people were hoping that terrorism would prevail in Aleppo and other areas. After terrorism failed there, they think it will be able to succeed in Algeria, which is the first country to strategically win against terrorism.”
The fourth is Geir Pederson, the Norwegian ambassador in China since 2017, former Norwegian UN ambassador between 2012 and 2017, and UN representative in Lebanon between 2005 and 2008. Due to the mutual reservations between Russian and Western countries, sources close to Guterres proposed Perderson as a compromise, although some Russian sources indicated that he “represents one of the NATO member countries.”
Russian Delegation in Damascus
19 November 2018
The official news agency SANA reported the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as saying during his meeting with Russian envoy Alexander Laverntiev on Friday: “Some countries in the area and many Western countries continue to intervene in the political process and exercise pressure to impose their will on the Syrian people. This hinders reaching any progress… Syria is committed to its right, which is guaranteed by international conventions, to prevent any external party from interfering in its internal affairs.”
Laverntiev had visited Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which coincided with a tour to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey by US envoy to Syria James Jeffery.
Laverntiev briefed Assad on the result of his tour, which included a number of Arab countries before he arrived in Damascus, asserting that “his country is seeking to use this diplomatic activity to exchange views on issues in the region, especially the political process in Syria and completing the battle to eliminate terrorism, in order to restore peace and security and preserve the integrity and independence of Syria,” according to SANA.
Elimination of Eighty-eight Thousand Militants
20 October 2018
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed the death of nearly eighty-eight thousand militants from opposition factions in Syria in the last three years since Moscow intervened in favor of government forces, according to a statement from the Russian defense ministry.
“Throughout the process, more than eighty-seven thousand and five hundred militants were eliminated, in addition to the liberation of one thousand four hundred and eleven towns and more than ninety-five percent of Syrian territory,” the statement reported Shoigu as saying.
“Most of the militants have been liquidated,” added Shoigu.
The London based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that around three hundred and sixty-five thousand people have been killed during the course of the seven-year-war.
Russia intervened in the conflict in September of 2015, providing aerial support for President Bashar al-Assad’s government.
Shoigu said that Russian aerial forces executed more than forty thousand missions, striking around one hundred and twenty thousand “terrorist” infrastructure targets.
“Syrian armed forces now control territories where more than ninety percent of the population live,” said the Russian defense minister.
However, fighting has raged in the east of the country near several villages inhabited by fifteen thousand people, including ISIS militants and their families. They were subject to attacks by Syrian government forces and Kurdish forces, forcing seven thousand civilians to flee.
Dispute on Damascus’s Share
18 October 2018
Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the Valdai Conference in Sochi that Moscow helped government forces in gaining control over ninety-five percent of Syrian territory, which was reiterated by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during his visit to Singapore.
On the other hand, US Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffery said that forty percent of Syria “is not under the control of government forces,” pointing out that Washington allies and Ankara control these areas.
“The Turks agree with our main objectives in Syria, which were clearly laid out by the President (Donald Trump) at the UN National Assembly. That is completely ousting Iran from Syria because it is an accelerant to the whole process. Secondly, de-escalating the military situation in Idlib, where Turks have reached an agreement with the Russians. And revitalizing the political process,” a US statement reported Jeffrey as saying during his visit to Turkey.
“President Trump sent tweets that summarize what we have been telling the Russians and others, which is that any attack in Idlib would be a reckless escalation of the conflict. This is very important because we think that it is time to stop the fighting. There were about three million people – and there are still three million people in Idlib, about half of them are displaced people from other areas in Syria. There is also around fifty to seventy thousand militants. Most of them are part of the opposition we used to work with and the Turks still do. There is also between seven to eight thousand people, or perhaps more, who are named terrorist organizations, essentially Tahrir al-Sham, which is the offshoot of Nusra, which in turn is an offshoot of Qaeda. There are also some elements from ISIS, and others associated with Qaeda,” he added.
“So you have got a very mixed situation there, but it would have been a huge mess if anybody had gone in, and it would have been – meant essentially the end of the armed resistance to the Syrian government. The Turks pushed back,” he went on to say.
“This is a major step because what it has done is it has frozen the conflict not only there, but the conflict is also frozen essentially everywhere else. We have forces in the south and in the northeast continuing operations against ISIS, and the Turks also have positions north of Idlib in Afrin and in al-Bab area. So essentially forty percent of the country is not under the government’s control, and we are talking with the Turks on how we can now shift to, again, the President’s words, revitalizing the political process,” Jeffrey added.
