Syria in a Week (22 October 2018)

Syria in a Week (22 October 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

US Strategy for Syria

22 October 2018

Informed sources say that President Trump’s administration asked US institutions to develop concrete proposals and a road map to implement the US strategy in Syria.

The current US strategy includes keeping special forces within the international coalition against ISIS east of the Euphrates in the Tanf base on the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordanian border to achieve three goals: eliminating ISIS and preventing its reemergence, getting rid of Iranian forces and militias, and pushing toward a UN-sponsored political solution under UN resolution 2254.

The sources say that US officials and experts are studying how to “use pressure and influence means, including controlling a third of Syrian territory, ninety percent of Syrian oil, and half the Syrian gas, in order to exercise pressure to reach the three goals,” stating that the White House is waiting for these proposals by the end of the year.

 

White Helmets in Canada

19 November 2018

The Canadian government said on Friday that is getting ready to resettle civil defense volunteers in areas controlled by Syrian opposition factions, also known as the White Helmets, along with their families, however, it did not disclose when they will arrive or where they will be resettled.

In a joint statement, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland and Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen said that “Canada is working with a group of international allies on resettling a number of White Helmets members and their families after they had to flee from Syria because they were being specifically targeted by the Syrian government and its Russian ally.”

White Helmets volunteers “witnessed firsthand, as paramedics, some of the most ferocious crimes committed by the criminal Assad government,” the statement said.

On 22 July, Jordan said that it received four hundred and twenty-two members from the White Helmets who fled areas in southern Syria before government forces regained control over them, with the aim of resettling them in Britain, Germany, or Canada.

On Wednesday, the Jordanian foreign ministry said that two hundred members of those had left to be resettled in Western countries.

The world first took notice of the White Helmets after photos appeared with them searching for survivors in the rubble and carrying children covered in blood to the hospital.

The White Helmets emerged in 2013, when the Syrian crisis was coming near to its third year. Since its establishment, more than two hundred of its volunteers have been killed and another five hundred injured.

 

Four-way Summit on Syria

18 October 2018

Ankara announced a four-way summit on Syria that includes the leaders of Turkey, Russia, Germany, and France to be held in Istanbul on 27 October.

The summit will join Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin.

The spokesman said that the four leaders will discuss the situation on the ground in Syria, the agreement on the demilitarized zone in Idlib that was reached by President Erdogan and President Putin during their summit in Sochi on 17 September, the political process, and various aspects of the Syria crisis.

The four-way summit is expected to “coordinate joint efforts to find a long-lasting solution to the Syrian conflict,” Kalin said.

Delegations from the four countries met in Istanbul on 14 September to prepare for the summit. The Turkish delegation was headed by Ibrahim Kalin, while the German delegation was headed by National Security Advisor Jan Hecker, Senior Diplomatic Advisor Philippe Etienne for the French delegation, and Senior Presidential Advisor Yuri Ushakov for the Russian delegation.

The three-hour preparatory meeting discussed the Syrian issue, especially developments regarding the de-escalation zone in Idlib, in addition to fighting terrorism and other regional issues.

The delegations included technical teams to arrange for the four-way summit called for by Erdogan in July. The summit was initially planned to be held in September but was then delayed.

 

An Extended Deadline for Idlib

15 October 2018

On Sunday night, the deadline passed for Tahrir al-Sham, which is mainly comprised of Nusra Front (previously), to evacuate the demilitarized buffer zone in Idlib that was set by the Russian-Turkish agreement in Sochi, without any withdrawal being monitored, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

Turkey has sought to convince Tahrir al-Sham, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda, to implement the agreement to avoid a Syrian government offensive which Turkey fears might cause a new influx of refugees towards its border.

Turkey has managed to implement the first phase of the agreement by convincing armed factions to hand over their heavy weaponry by 10 October.

Jan Egeland, UN Humanitarian Affairs Advisor said that Russia and Turkey plan to allow for more time to implement their agreement on the de-escalation zone in Idlib, a “great relief” for three million civilians in the area.

But there were still “a million unanswered questions” about how the deal would work, and what would happen if groups designated as terrorists refused to lay down their weapons, Egeland said.

Speaking after a regular Syria humanitarian meeting in Geneva, Egeland said that Russia had confirmed that Damascus had scrapped Law Number 10, a “very concerning” law allowing the expropriation of land and property from refugees.

Idlib and adjacent areas are the last strongholds of the opposition who rose up against President Bashar al-Assad in 2011, and the UN has warned that a battle to restore Assad’s control over the zone could be the worst of the seven-year-old war.

Turkey and Russia set up a buffer zone running between fifteen and twenty kilometers deep into opposition territory that originally had to be free of heavy weapons and fanatics by Monday.

“There will be more time for diplomacy,” Egeland said. “I was heartened to hear both Russia and Turkey say they are optimistic, they can achieve much more through negotiations, and they are generally very positive on the implementation of this deal which is giving a relief, a pause in fighting, to Idlib,” he added.

Egeland said there were twelve thousand humanitarian workers in the area, and Idlib had now gone five weeks without an air raid, something he could not remember in the past three years.

 

Four Candidates to Succeed De Mistura

18 October 2018

Russian-Western negotiations are underway to choose one of four candidates to succeed UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura who will leave his position at the end of the next month.

De Mistura told the UN Security Council that he will resign from his position at the end of November after four years as the third UN envoy to Syria after the late Kofi Anan and Lakhdar Brahimi. UN Humanitarian Affairs Envoy and Head of the Norwegian Council for Refugees Jan Egeland will also resign.

After de Mistura’s resignation announcement, consultations between UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and the five permanent UN Security Council countries reached a new level in order to find the fifth envoy to Syria. According to sources, there are four candidates: the first is Nikolai Mladenov, UN Representative for the Palestinian-Israeli Peace Process since 2015, who was previously the foreign minister of Bulgaria. It seems that the Russian side objected to his name, considering him “close to the United States and not impartial.” Damascus also informed Moscow of its reservations because of Mladenov’s “political position from Syria which he expressed when he was the foreign minister of Bulgaria.”

The second is UN Envoy in Iraq Jan Kubis, who is the former foreign minister of Slovakia. It has been reported that Washington has reservations against him because of his “proximity to the Russian position,” and because it thinks that his presence is “currently essential in Iraq, which is undergoing the formation of a new government and a political process following the elections.”

The third is the Algerian Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra. Moscow and Arab countries have pushed for Lamamra to succeed de Mistura, however, Western countries expressed their objection based on previous positions that “deny him the status of mediator”, referring to his statement in December of 2016 on the sidelines of the Peace and Security Conference in Africa: “What happened in Aleppo? The (Syrian) government was able to restore its sovereignty and control over the city. These people were hoping that terrorism would prevail in Aleppo and other areas. After terrorism failed there, they think it will be able to succeed in Algeria, which is the first country to strategically win against terrorism.”

The fourth is Geir Pederson, the Norwegian ambassador in China since 2017, former Norwegian UN ambassador between 2012 and 2017, and UN representative in Lebanon between 2005 and 2008. Due to the mutual reservations between Russian and Western countries, sources close to Guterres proposed Perderson as a compromise, although some Russian sources indicated that he “represents one of the NATO member countries.”

 

Russian Delegation in Damascus

19 November 2018

The official news agency SANA reported the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as saying during his meeting with Russian envoy Alexander Laverntiev on Friday: “Some countries in the area and many Western countries continue to intervene in the political process and exercise pressure to impose their will on the Syrian people. This hinders reaching any progress… Syria is committed to its right, which is guaranteed by international conventions, to prevent any external party from interfering in its internal affairs.”

Laverntiev had visited Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which coincided with a tour to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey by US envoy to Syria James Jeffery.

Laverntiev briefed Assad on the result of his tour, which included a number of Arab countries before he arrived in Damascus, asserting that “his country is seeking to use this diplomatic activity to exchange views on issues in the region, especially the political process in Syria and completing the battle to eliminate terrorism, in order to restore peace and security and preserve the integrity and independence of Syria,” according to SANA.

 

Elimination of Eighty-eight Thousand Militants

20 October 2018

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed the death of nearly eighty-eight thousand militants from opposition factions in Syria in the last three years since Moscow intervened in favor of government forces, according to a statement from the Russian defense ministry.

“Throughout the process, more than eighty-seven thousand and five hundred militants were eliminated, in addition to the liberation of one thousand four hundred and eleven towns and more than ninety-five percent of Syrian territory,” the statement reported Shoigu as saying.

“Most of the militants have been liquidated,” added Shoigu.

The London based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that around three hundred and sixty-five thousand people have been killed during the course of the seven-year-war.

Russia intervened in the conflict in September of 2015, providing aerial support for President Bashar al-Assad’s government.

Shoigu said that Russian aerial forces executed more than forty thousand missions, striking around one hundred and twenty thousand “terrorist” infrastructure targets.

“Syrian armed forces now control territories where more than ninety percent of the population live,” said the Russian defense minister.

However, fighting has raged in the east of the country near several villages inhabited by fifteen thousand people, including ISIS militants and their families. They were subject to attacks by Syrian government forces and Kurdish forces, forcing seven thousand civilians to flee.

 

Dispute on Damascus’s Share

18 October 2018

Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the Valdai Conference in Sochi that Moscow helped government forces in gaining control over ninety-five percent of Syrian territory, which was reiterated by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during his visit to Singapore.

On the other hand, US Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffery said that forty percent of Syria “is not under the control of government forces,” pointing out that Washington allies and Ankara control these areas.

“The Turks agree with our main objectives in Syria, which were clearly laid out by the President (Donald Trump) at the UN National Assembly. That is completely ousting Iran from Syria because it is an accelerant to the whole process. Secondly, de-escalating the military situation in Idlib, where Turks have reached an agreement with the Russians. And revitalizing the political process,” a US statement reported Jeffrey as saying during his visit to Turkey.

“President Trump sent tweets that summarize what we have been telling the Russians and others, which is that any attack in Idlib would be a reckless escalation of the conflict. This is very important because we think that it is time to stop the fighting. There were about three million people – and there are still three million people in Idlib, about half of them are displaced people from other areas in Syria. There is also around fifty to seventy thousand militants. Most of them are part of the opposition we used to work with and the Turks still do. There is also between seven to eight thousand people, or perhaps more, who are named terrorist organizations, essentially Tahrir al-Sham, which is the offshoot of Nusra, which in turn is an offshoot of Qaeda. There are also some elements from ISIS, and others associated with Qaeda,” he added.

“So you have got a very mixed situation there, but it would have been a huge mess if anybody had gone in, and it would have been – meant essentially the end of the armed resistance to the Syrian government. The Turks pushed back,” he went on to say.

“This is a major step because what it has done is it has frozen the conflict not only there, but the conflict is also frozen essentially everywhere else. We have forces in the south and in the northeast continuing operations against ISIS, and the Turks also have positions north of Idlib in Afrin and in al-Bab area. So essentially forty percent of the country is not under the government’s control, and we are talking with the Turks on how we can now shift to, again, the President’s words, revitalizing the political process,” Jeffrey added.

Syria in a Week (27 August 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

“Crisis” and “Chemical Weapons” in Idlib?

24 August 2018

There are indirect indications that the United States, along with its allies, is preparing for a new aggression against Syria, said Spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense Igor Konashenkov.

A US destroyer ship arrived at the Persian Gulf, while US B-1B bombers are getting ready to move from the US base in Qatar to hit targets in Syria, the spokesman said according to Sputnik news agency. He noted that the USS Sulivans destroyer is armed with fifty-six cruise missiles, and the strategic bomb carrier B-1B is ready to move from al-Udeid Base in Qatar armed with twenty-four air-to-surface missiles.

On Friday, Turkey warned Moscow, which militarily supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government, of a potential “crisis” in Syria in case of resorting to a “military solution” in Idlib, the last stronghold of opposition factions and jihadist in the country.

The Syrian government’s offensive to take back the province of Idlib, which borders Turkey, seems imminent. However, Damascus is unlikely to launch an offensive without a greenlight from Ankara, which supports opposition factions.

In recent weeks, the Russian-Turkish relationship witnessed increased coordination, and a Turkish delegation visited Moscow on Friday.

“The military solution will lead to a crisis not just in Idlib, but for Syria’s future as well. The battle could last for a long time and may reach civilians,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said during a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart in Moscow.

The Syrian government is completing preparations to take back Idlib in north-west of Syria.

“However, it is very important that the radical and terrorist groups become incapable of posing a threat. It is a very important matter for Turkey as well because they are present at the other side of our border. They are primarily a threat to us,” said Cavusoglu.

Idlib governorate is strategically important because of its location on the border with Turkey, which provides support for opposition factions, and its proximity to Lattakia governorate, which is the stronghold of the Alawite sect to which the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad belongs.

Idlib is within the “de-escalation zones” that were setup at the end of peace negotiations that took place in Astana, under Russian, Turkish, and Iranian sponsorship.

Idlib has been the destination for tens of thousands of militants who refused settlement agreements with the government.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov acknowledged that the situation in Idlib is “very difficult,” and added, “when we setup the de-escalation zone in Idlib, nobody proposed using it for militants, especially those affiliated with Nusra Front, to hide behind the civilian population like a human shield.”

“Especially as they are not just lying low there. Raids come constantly from there and firing on positions of the Syrian army,” Lavrov said. He confirmed that Russian forces have downed around fifty drones that were launched from that area and targeted Hmeimeim airbase.

In an interview with Russian media in July, the Syrian president affirmed that the current priority for the government is to retake control of Idlib governorate, which is mostly out of his control. “Our objective now is Idlib, although it is not the only objective,” Assad said during the interview.

On 9 August, government forces dropped leaflets over Idlib calling for joining the “reconciliation” agreements.

Analysts say that the Syrian government is incapable of making any moves in Idlib without getting a greenlight from Turkey, which has established observation points in the governorate and deployed forces there.

Russian President Vladimir Putin received the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and the Defense Minister Hakan Fidan and noted “increasing close” cooperation with Turkey in solving “thorny” issues, such as the Syrian crisis.

“Thanks to the efforts of both of our countries and the participation of other concerned countries, especially Iran […], we have succeeded in accomplishing evident progress towards solving the Syrian crisis,” said Putin.

 

Al-Jolani Between Idlib and Lattakia

22 August 2018

On Tuesday, the general commander of Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra) Abu Mohammed al-Jolani warned factions in Idlib against negotiating with the Syrian government and entering settlements agreement, as has happened in other areas.

Jolani’s statement came at a time when all eyes are fixed to Idlib with the military preparations taken by government forces to launch an attack against the last stronghold for both the opposition factions and Tahrir al-Sham.

Jolani said in a video posted on Telegram: “This phase requires us factions to pledge that the revolution’s arms […] are a red line on which concessions are unacceptable. They will never be put on the negotiating table.”

“The instant someone considers negotiating their arms, they will lose them indeed. Just thinking about surrendering to the enemy and handing over weapons is treason,” he said.

Tahir al-Sham controls the majority of Idlib, while Islamic factions affiliated with the National Front for Liberation, including Ahrar al-Sham, are present in the rest of the region. Government forces are deployed in the southeast countryside.

Jolani stressed that settlement agreements, which took place in various areas of Syria where opposition factions had control, the last of which was in Daraa and Qonaiterah in southern Syria, will not happen again in Idlib. “The honorable people of the north will not allow what happened in the south to pass in the north,” he said.

Tahrir al-Sham and other factions have carried out house raids in recent days, arresting dozens of people on charges of communicating with the government to reach a settlement agreement, which usually provide for the entry of government forces and factions handing over their weapons.

“Our people need to realize that the Turkish observation posts in the north cannot be relied upon to face the enemy. Do not be fooled by promises or media statements. Political stances can change in an instant,” said Jolani.

Russia asked Ankara to find a solution to put an end to the presence of Tahrir al-Sham, which is seen as a “terrorist” organization, in order to avoid a large-scale operation in Idlib. Analysts say that Turkey is working on unifying the ranks of the factions for any confrontation with Tahrir al-Sham.

 

Drones over Hmeimeim

24 August 2018

There has been an increase in the number of drone attacks launched by fighting factions against Hmeimeim base in western Syria. These attacks do not pose serious threats according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) and Russian officials who said that Moscow fortified the base with a new missile system.

Since the onset of its military intervention in Syria in 2015, Russia has used Hmeimeim base as the headquarters for its forces in the coastal governorate of Lattakia, which was spared from the fierce battle since the start of the conflict in 2011. Some fighting factions are present in limited parts of its northern countryside bordering Idlib.

“The number of drone attacks targeting Hmeimeim base has increased in the last two months,” said SOHR, noting that there were twenty-three attacks since the beginning of this year, including five in August and thirteen in July.

“Russian and Syrian air defenses downed most of the planes” launched by Islamic factions and jihadist groups in Idlib, according to SOHR.

“Russians are convinced that the drones targeting their airbase in Lattakia (Hmeimeim) are launched from around Jisr al-Shoghour,” said International Crisis Group researcher Sam Heller at an earlier time.

The Spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova accused “terrorists”, referring to factions in Idlib, of targeting Hmeimeim base.

In mid-August, the spokesman for the Russian army Igor Konshankov confirmed by stating that “last month, we witnessed an increase in drone attack attempts,” and stressed that one hundred per cent of them were downed.

 

The United States is there to Stay!

23 August 2018

The issue of formal and informal Iranian forces leaving Syria has become a main component of US policy in dealing with the Syrian issue. Washington is holding several cards to pressure Moscow in order to reach this objective.

Western diplomatic sources told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper yesterday that President Donald Trump’s administration has decided to keep its soldiers in north-eastern Syria and the no-fly zone, which the international coalition set up to fight ISIS. This will be used, along with the financing the reconstruction of Syria and the return of refugees “cards”, to exercise pressure on Russia to oust Iran.

This was one of the issues that US National Security Advisor John Bolton discussed with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev in Geneva on Thursday. Bolton said that his counterpart proposed abolishing sanctions on Iranian oil in exchange for restraining Iran in Syria. “This is a proposal we have refused again today,” he said.

Bolton also said that he cautioned Patrushev against interfering in the November mid-term congressional elections. This prevented an agreement on a joint statement, which the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo later tried to reach. However, they agreed on restoring communications between the defense departments in the two countries.

 

Back to Geneva

23 August 2018

On Friday, a UN spokeswoman said that the special envoy will meet representatives from Iran, Russia, and Turkey on 11 & 12 September in Geneva to discuss a new constitution in Syria.

UN Special Envoy Staffan De Mistura is charged with forming a committee whose task will be to draft a new constitution for the war-torn country. The main foreign sponsors for this project are Damascus, Russia, and Iran, in addition to Turkey, which provides support for a number of opposition factions.

Representatives from the three countries will meet De Mistura in Geneva for two days. The latter said that he hopes the constitutional committee will be ready before the UN General Assembly in New York late September.

This may require more talks, especially with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government, however, Vellucci did not have any information about further meetings next month.

Previous efforts by De Mistura to stop the Syrian conflict have not yielded any significant results.

 

Britain is Leaving the Opposition

20 August 2018

The British government said that it was ending funding for some aid programs in areas controlled by opposition militants in Syria.

“As the situation on the ground in some regions has become increasingly difficult, we have reduced support for some of our non-humanitarian programming but continue to deliver vital support to help those most in need and to improve security and stability in the country,” a British government spokeswoman told Reuters.

The Times newspaper earlier said that an attempt to form an independent police force would be scrapped next month, while projects funding local councils were being reviewed and would likely be halted by the end of the financial year.

The report added that the Foreign Office and Department for International Development had determined the aid programs in the northwestern parts of Syria to be “unsustainable”.

The British government said it has spent one hundred and fifty-two million pounds (around one hundred and ninety-four million US dollars) on humanitarian programs in Syria for the 2017-2018 financial year.

Britain increased its aid, as well as its supply of armored vehicles and training to Syria’s opposition in 2018.

In 2011, the United States adopted a policy that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must leave power. However, Washington and its Western allies, including Britain, changed their positions after they watched Syrian government forces, backed by Iran and Russia, take back territory it had previously lost.

 

A Tripartite “Red Line”

21 August 2018

The United States, France, and Britain threatened to respond if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad uses chemical weapons in any attacks to regain control of Idlib governorate.

In a joint statement, the three countries expressed their “grave concern” at a military offensive in Idlib and the humanitarian consequences that would result from it.

“We underlined our concern at the potential for further — and illegal — use of chemical weapons,” the three countries said in the statement. “We remain resolved to act if the Assad regime uses chemical weapons again,” the statement said.

The three major powers in the UN Security Council issued this statement on the eve of the fifth anniversary of a Sarine gas attack in Ghouta that left more than three hundred people dead.

This attack, which the West blamed Assad forces for, led to a US-Russian agreement to eliminate Damascus’s chemical stockpile and the means to produce these lethal substances.

The United States, France, and Britain launched airstrikes on targets in Syria as a response to a chemical attack in the town of Douma in Ghouta that left a big number of victims.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to discuss the humanitarian issue in Syria next week.

 

Russia “Stuck”?

22 August 2018

US National Security Advisor John Bolton said that Russia is “stuck” in Syria and looking for others to fund post-war reconstruction there, describing this as an opportunity for Washington to press for the withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria.

After US President Donald Trump took office, the United States is seeking to disengage from Syria, where the previous administration deployed some forces and gave limited support to Kurdish opposition forces, despite the objections of its NATO partner, Turkey.

Bolton sidestepped a question on whether these measures would continue, saying that the United States’ presence is based on objectives. “Our interests in Syria are to finish the destruction of ISIS and deal with the continuing threat of ISIS terrorism and to worry about the presence of Iranian militias and regular forces,” he said in an interview.

Bolton said that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who met Trump in Helsinki on 16 July, told the United States that Moscow cannot force the Iranians to leave Syria. “But he also told us that his interest and Iran’s were not exactly the same. So we are obviously going to talk to him about what role they can play … We are going see what we and others can agree in terms of resolving the conflict in Syria. But the one prerequisite there is the withdrawal of all Iranian forces back in Iran,” said Bolton.

Washington wields leverage in its talks with Moscow because “the Russians are stuck there at the moment,” he added.

“And I do not think they want to be stuck there. I think their frenetic diplomatic activity in Europe indicates that they would like to find somebody else, for example, to bear the cost of reconstructing Syria – which they may or may not succeed in doing.”

 

Sixty-three Thousand Russians Fought in Syria

22 August 2018

The Russian Defense Ministry said that Russia sent more than sixty-three thousand soldiers to Syria as part of its engagement in the conflict.

A total of 63,012 Russian soldiers “received combat experience” in Syria, the ministry said in a video about Russia’s campaign to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government.

This number includes 25,738 officers, four hundred and thirty-four generals, and 4,329 specialists in artillery and rockets, according to the ministry.

In late 2017, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said that more than forty-eight thousand Russian soldiers participated in the Syrian campaign.

Last December, President Vladimir Putin ordered his armed forces to pull the bulk of troops out of Syria. However, he later clarified that the army will stay in Syria “as long as it is beneficial” and he was not planning to withdraw yet.

On Wednesday, the ministry said that the Russian air force conducted more than thirty-nine thousand sorties which killed “more than eighty-six thousand militants” and destroyed 121,466 “terrorist targets”.

It said its forces tested two hundred and thirty-one types of modern weaponry in Syria, including aircraft, surface-to-air systems, cruise missiles, and others.

The video did not mention any Russian civilian or military casualties.

Syria in a Week (13 August 2018)

Syria in a Week (13 August 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

Victims in the North

11 August 2018

Al-Hayat

Fifty-three civilians, including twenty-six children, were killed in an air strike on Friday night that targeted areas controlled by opposition factions in northern Syria, according to a new toll from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). The SOHR said that “forty-one civilians, including twenty-five children, were killed in a night airstrike on the town of Orm al-Kobra in the western countryside of Aleppo,” while twelve others, including one child, were killed in air raids on the governorate of Idlib. “Air raids conducted by Russian airplanes and explosive drums launched by Syrian helicopters targeted areas in southern Idlib governorate,” the SOHR said. The current escalation is the most dangerous since the announcement of the de-escalation zone in Idlib last year. (al-Hayat)  For the fourth consecutive day, Russian air defense systems brought down drones targeting Hmeimeim airbase. This escalation coincides with the beginning of government military operations in northern Hama and southern Idlib.

Another sixty-nine people were killed, including fifty-two civilians, as a result of an unexplained explosion in a weapons depot early Sunday morning in the town of Sarmada in Idlib governorate, according to a new toll from the SOHR on Monday.

“The number of people killed as a result of the explosion rose to sixty-nine, including fifty-two civilians and seventeen militants from Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra),” said the SOHR.

The civilian death toll includes seventeen children, according to the SOHR, which said that the majority of those killed are family members of militants from Tahrir al-Sham who were displaced from Homs.

The rescue operation has been ongoing since dawn on Sunday, according to Abdul Rahman, who said that the death toll is likely to rise because of “dozens of wounded, some in serious condition.”

The depot was located in a residential building in the town of Sarmada in the northern countryside of Idlib. The reasons behind the explosion are “still unclear.”

 

Displacement from Idlib … to Where?

8 August 2018

Reuters

The anticipated battle in Idlib could lead to the displacement of seven hundred thousand Syrians, according to reports by UN-supervised aid agencies. Many previous battles ended in agreements that provided for the departure of opposition militants and their families to Idlib, which doubled the population of the governorate to two and a half million. This potential battle could exacerbate the humanitarian situation and increase relief needs in an exceptional manner. UN regional humanitarian coordinator Panos Moumtzis said in June that the governorate’s entire population of two and a half million could be displaced and move towards the Turkish border if there was a major battle. Such a battle would be more complicated and brutal than anything seen so far in the seven-year war, he said. (Reuters) The UN has repeatedly cautioned about the dangers of an attack on Idlib. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview with Russian media last month that Idlib governorate would be a priority for his forces.

 

The New Opposition Army

13 August 2018

Middle East Newspaper

The armed opposition in northern Syria has been working on establishing a “national army” with Turkish support, after the start of the countdown to the battle for Idlib. This means that there are two main armed groups in northern Syria: the National Army and the National Front for Liberation, in addition to Tahrir al-Sham. The main challenge is uniting the armed opposition without Tahrir al-Sham. The National Army receives financial and military support from Turkey, which also provides support for the National Front for Liberation, which in turn was formed by the merger of five groups, notably the Syrian Liberation Front, factions from the Free Syrian Army, and al-Ahrar Army faction.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hinted at the possibility of conducting more military operations in northern Syria to establish safe zones that could accommodate Syrian refugees and prevent a new influx of displacement into his country. He added that his country has completed the necessary arrangements to establish more safe zones inside Syrian territory, as it did before during the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch operations. (Middle East)

 

Hama’s Border Crossings are Closed

12 August 2018

Enab Baladi

The border crossings of al-Madhiq Citadel and Mork are two of the most important border crossings between areas controlled by the government and those controlled by the opposition. They represent symbols of the economies of war and exchange of interests among the warring parties from a military perspective. In the wake of repeated escalations in Idlib, the Syrian government and Russian police have closed the border crossings of al-Madhiq Citadel and Mork in Hama countryside, effectively cutting off commercial and civilian activities. The closure of the border crossings coincided with the arrival of government military reinforcements to the northern countryside of Hama on Friday. (Enab Baladi)

 

Ousting ISIS from Sweidaa’s Dessert

12 August 2018

SANA & Enab Baladi

Government forces declared their full control over Sweidaa’s administrational border in its eastern countryside as part of their campaign against ISIS. The official Syrian news agency SANA said that government forces made wide progress and were able to encircle ISIS on Sunday in Tolool al-Safa, which is located within the administrational border of Damascus Countryside governorate. On Saturday, government forces controlled the following areas: Rosoom al-Tathmooni, Khirbet al-Ambashi, Tilal al-Hibarieh, Rosoom Marroush, Souh al-Na’meh, Dharet Rashed, Zraibieh, Khirbet al-Shahrieh, Wadi al-Rmailan, Wadi Shajara, Zmlet Nasser, al-Nahyan, Tal Dhabe’, Tal al-Dhbai’ieh, and Qabr al-Sheikh Houssain. ISIS did not comment on the battles and its propaganda has been completely absent since the last attacks in Sweidaa, which left more than two hundred people dead. ISIS still holds women and children from Sweidaa as captives. (Enab Baladi)

 

Russian Pressure for the Return of Refugees

8 August 2018

Enab Baladi

Russia announced its plan for the return of Syrian refugees on 18 July, making it the first serious international initiative in this regard. It sent out applications for hosting countries to provide estimates of the number of refugees. It also opened up five border crossings and seventy-six centers to welcome returning refugees, which can accommodate three hundred and thirty-six thousand refugees. The main function of these centers is to monitor the return of refugees from foreign countries to Syria, provide necessary aid to them, and then send them to their areas of permanent residence or keep those who have no place to go in the shelter centers.

The Russia plan involves the return of 1.7 million Syrian refugees to Syrian in the “near future” which are distributed as the following according to data from the Russian Ministry of Defense: eight hundred and ninety thousand refugees from Lebanon, three hundred thousand refugees from Turkey, two hundred thousand refugees from European countries, one hundred and fifty thousand refugees from Jordan, one hundred thousand refugees from Iraq, and one hundred thousand refugees from Egypt. The Russian government presented its plan for the return of refugees to Syria during the Helsinki summit on 16 July, which joined President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin. Moscow then dispatched senior officials from the ministries of foreign affairs and defense on a shuttle tour to Jordan, Lebanon, Germany, and France. Then talked about solidarity with these countries to ensure the success of the plan and the return of the refugees.

There were many doubts regarding the number of refugees who accepted the Russian plan. Under the initial text of the plan, Russia could not dispel the fears of the refugees wanted by the Syrian security authorities or those who left the county for fear of the mandatory military service. (Enab Baladi)

There is concern among human rights organizations and refugees regarding how host countries, which are already under pressure because of the refugees, would respond to the Russian initiative, as pressure could be implicitly or explicitly exercised on refugees to return involuntarily.

 

Cost of Reconstruction

8 August 2018

ESCWA, AFP

The United Nations estimated the cost of the war in Syria at around four hundred billion US dollars in a meeting for the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) on Wednesday, 8 August. This estimate does not include human losses that Syrians have suffered during the bloody war, such as death, injuries, and displacement. The financial and human losses reflect the high burden of the war and the great challenges facing reconstruction, which requires, in addition to financial and human resources, credible, competent, and inclusive institutions to overcome the consequences of the war and ensure stability thereafter.

 

Jordanian Commercial Delegation in Damascus in Preparation for the Resumption of Commercial Trade.

8 August 2018

Enab Baladi

Damascus received a Jordanian commercial delegation at the invitation of Syrian economic officials, in preparation for the resumption of commercial and economic relationships between the two sides. On Wednesday, 8 August, the Ministry of Internal Commerce and Consumer Protection said that a meeting was held at the ministry in Damascus to discuss ways to restore commercial relationships between Jordan and Syria. It also said that the Jordanian delegation expressed its desire to open up border crossings between the two countries, especially Nassib border crossing, in order to start the commercial exchange, including all agricultural and industrial sectors. The Syrian side viewed the meeting as a new chapter in the Syrian-Jordanian commercial cooperation. It said that this was a preparatory meeting to open Nassib border crossing between the two countries.

Nassib border crossing is of significant political and economic importance to the Syrian government and Jordan. Government forces took control over the border crossing on 6 July during a military campaign against opposition areas in Daraa governorate, south of Syria. (Enab Baladi)